651
FXUS61 KBGM 181931
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
331 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers this morning will become less widespread through
the day. A few thunderstorms could develop in the western
Southern Tier this afternoon but will quickly dissipate after
sunset. Partly cloudy skies tonight will lead to some valley fog
formation by Sunday Morning. Sunday is looking dry and much
warmer than today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

300 PM Update

Showers and drizzle continue across areas east of I-81 as the
shortwave trough slides to the SE. Showers should start to taper
off this afternoon across this area as the trough leaves the
region. Some clearing in the western Finger Lakes has allowed
some instability to develop, diving some cellular showers across
the area, moving from NW to SE. Shear is minimal and the
instability is very shallow so severe weather is not expected.
Some brief localized heavy showers will occur but flash flooding
is not expected. Temps today will vary by about 10 degrees
across the area. Under the cloud shield across the eastern CWA,
low 60s are expected. Where clouds and rain have cleared a bit,
temps will climb into the upper 60s to near 70.

Showers dissipate across the region this evening. With the ridge
moving in, combined with light winds and a very moist boundary
layer, widespread fog is expected to develop tonight. Best
chances will be across the Twin Tiers, where the highest
moisture will be. Some fog should also develop in the western
Mohawk Valley but how far east it spreads is uncertain given the
lack of moisture in the area today. Temperatures will be in the
mid 50s across the region.

Sunday will be a very nice spring day, with temperatures
topping out in the mid to upper 70s and partly cloudy skies. A
few isolated showers may pop up across the Twin Tiers,
especially if we can get some clearing.

Sunday night should see some more patchy fog with high pressure,
light winds and small dewpoint depressions across the region.
Temperatures will be nearly identical to Saturday night, with
lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

315 PM Update

High pressure will be over the region, the ridge likely to
remain in place through the short term period. This will result
in winds shifting to south-southwesterly gradually bringing in
a warmer and slightly more humid airmass. Temperatures rise well
above average, with highs 80 to 85 on Monday for most locations.
Warming up even a bit more on Tuesday, with highs well into the
80s areawide. There will be a slight chance for a thunderstorm
over the western Finger Lakes Monday evening along the lake
breeze front, then up north of I-90 Tuesday afternoon/evening.
This will be associated with a weak wave over the top of the
ridge.Tuesday night is warm and muggy with lows in the upper
50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

315 PM Update

The large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region
Wednesday morning before being chipped away by an approaching
cold front late in the day. This front then looks to break down
the ridge by Thursday. Temperatures continue to trend warmer
mid-week, with highs now 85 to 90 in the forecast Wednesday
afternoon. Dew points are slightly humid in the lower 60s, this
will keep heat indices close to the actual temperature and not
much higher. Overnight lows are warm and muggy in the low to
mid-60s Wednesday night.

Enough lift, moisture and instability looks present for at
least some scattered showers & T`storms Wednesday evening out
ahead of the main cold frontal passage. Exact timing and
location of the prefrontal trough remains a little uncertain
still. Instability during the afternoons is moderate, with
surface CAPE currently modeled from about 500-1000 J/KG so some
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Deep layer shear is
only about 20-25 kts Wednesday afternoon.

If the current timing holds, the main cold front would pass
through the region on Thursday. Out ahead of the front MLCAPE
would be between 600-1200 J/kg, with deep layer shear increasing
to 40-50 kts Thursday afternoon. This scenario could lead to
some more organized thunderstorm activity. However, there are
still some timing differences with the operational models and
ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean
more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the
timing differences it is still to early to determine the
potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

After the front passes through, it looks to cool down and dry
out Thursday night. Lows will dip down into the upper 40s to
mid-50s. Friday is now forecast to be mainly dry with weak high
pressure in place and seasonable temperatures. There remain many
difference in the weather pattern by next Saturday; the model
guidance seems to be trending toward a drier pattern for our
area in the more recent runs. Confidence remains a bit low on
just how the up coming Memorial Day weekend weather will play
out. For now followed the NBM/Ensemble guidance which gives
partly sunny skies and a low chance for scattered rain showers,
with highs in the low to mid-70s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain showers and drizzle continue across the region this
afternoon, bringing MVFR to LIFR conditions to our terminals.
BGM and ITH will see conditions lift to Fuel Alt in the next
couple of hours as the precipitation moves east of the area and
some drier air tries to work its way in from the west.

A foggy night is in store as a ridge moves overhead, bringing
light to calm winds across the area. BGM/ELM/ITH/SYR are
expected to see IFR and lower fog develop tonight. While a lot
of clearing is not expected, a very moist surface from today`s
rain will only need marginal cooling to get fog and low ceilings
to develop.

AVP has a chance at fog as well, but confidence that the
thicker fog works its way into the terminal from the valley is
low so kept overnight restrictions to MVFR. RME has been out of
the precipitation most of the day, with VFR conditions expected
through the evening. This lack of recent surface moisture will
inhibit fog development. If fog can develop, MVFR conditions are
currently expected.

All terminals should slowly become VFR by mid-morning.


Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some showers
possible by Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM/MWG
LONG TERM...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...JTC