Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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283 FXUS64 KBMX 271741 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. At the surface, there is some damming along the Appalachians and into northeast Alabama, but we`re pulling out of the cool season, so it`s not making much of a noticeable impact on temperatures. Expect to see highs in the mid 80s again today. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. The pattern looks almost identical tomorrow. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warmup into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 While an upper low lifts slowly northeastward across the Boundary Waters of Minnesota and Ontario, a secondary shortwave along the southern end of the trough will move eastward from the ArkLaTex Monday morning to northern Alabama Monday night. An MCS is expected to be located over the ArkLaMiss Monday morning, and will continue to move east-southeastward through the day. It will encounter a drier low-level air mass as it approaches Alabama and will also be well ahead of a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Midwest to the Southern Plains. Therefore some weakening is expected to occur. Also, with MLCAPE values less than 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear only around 25-30 kts, the probability of it being severe is very low at this time though some gusty winds will be possible depending on the strength of the cold pool. There are typical uncertainties regarding the track of the MCS, but in general expect rain chances to increase in far western Alabama Monday afternoon and across the northwest half of the area Monday night in proximity to the shortwave. However, some guidance suggests a more southerly track that would limit rain chances further north which will be monitored. Tuesday may be trending drier depending on the amount of subsidence behind the shortwave. For the rest of the week, relatively weak and quasi-zonal mid- level flow will be present southeast of a positively tilted trough over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. A few weak convectively enhanced waves in the westerly flow aloft will provide chances of a few showers and storms at times but with low predictability this far out. This will predominately be across the northwest half of the area, while the southeast half should remain drier with temperatures near 90 degrees in closer proximity to ridging extending from the Gulf up the East Coast. Rain chances may begin to increase by the end of the period as moisture pools ahead of a cold front sagging southeastward, though this front is trending slower with each model run. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 Some low-level cu and high-level cirrus will pass across the area through the TAF period, but VFR conditions are expected to continue. A broad region of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, and a strengthening low-pressure system over the Central Plains is contributing to an enhanced pressure gradient and 15 to 20 kt wind gusts this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southeast decreasing to around 5 to 8 kts overnight. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with increasing rain chances across north Alabama Monday afternoon and Monday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 60 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 60 82 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 64 83 62 85 / 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 65 84 62 85 / 0 10 0 40 Calera 64 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 62 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 63 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 63 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...86/Martin