Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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097 FXUS65 KBOU 011755 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1155 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers this afternoon and evening. - Isolated thunderstorms expected over the eastern plains with small hail accompanying the stronger storms. - Up to 4 inches of snow for the mountains through tonight. - Another round of showers and storms late Friday/early Saturday. - Warmer and breezy over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 We`re off to a fairly quiet start this morning, as the main band of clouds/precip associated with an approaching front remains off to the north and west. Meanwhile, some stratus/mid-level clouds have advected into the far eastern edges of the CWA as a modest moisture advection regime has set up there. However, surface dew points remain underwhelming in this area (mid/upper 30s F) and as a result the overall airmass is still stable. Continued moisture advection through the day will allow for meager instability in the eastern plains later this afternoon. Organized severe weather looks unlikely as weaker updrafts will struggle to survive in a strongly sheared environment. Still can`t rule out a briefly organized storm or two capable of marginally severe hail/wind later this afternoon. However, across most of the forecast region we still only expected scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms. The morning update comes with only a few minor changes to the forecast grids, as the previous forecast was in good shape. Did make some PoP adjustments through tonight along with a few updates to wind grids in an attempt to better time the frontal passage today. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Upper level trough over the Great Basin will shift east across the Central Rockies tonight. Ahead of this trough, the right entrance region of the jet is producing rain and snow showers over northwest and north central Colorado. The trough and jet slowly progress eastward across the region over the next 24 hours. At the surface, southeast winds will prevail today ahead of a cold front. This front moves south across eastern Colorado this afternoon bringing gusty north winds with it. Lift from the jet, trough, and front is expected to produce scattered to numerous showers this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected to occur. Soundings show steep mid level lapse rates, however CAPE is expected to be less than 1000 J/kg and in most cases less the 500 J/kg. Expect small hail to be the main threat with the storms, though can`t rule out a couple storms just reaching severe threshold with one inch diameter hail. The showers and storms progress eastward through the evening and exit the state overnight. The backside of the trough will usher in drier air and by 12Z Thursday expect the area to be free of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 A few minor changes in the long-term forecast mainly for PoPs and winds through Tuesday. Lingering mid-level moisture and weak MLCAPE values between 100-200 J/kg will allow for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two to occur Thursday afternoon. It is possible that majority of the region could experience virga versus showers given the dry air aloft. Afternoon temperatures should remain slightly cooler with the mountains and valleys between 36-49. The foothills and plains should range between 50-64. The next shortwave trough arrives Friday morning. Southwesterly flow increases while remnants of Pacific moisture from a system enter northeastern Colorado. With favorable QG fields and MLCAPE values near 400 J/kg, scattered thunderstorms and showers are possible across the mountains and plains Friday afternoon. BUFKIT soundings display favorable lapse rates near 7-8 C/km and SHIP values between 1-1.2 meaning there is a decent chance of thunderstorms producing small hail. Showers will likely be too warm for the valleys but parts of the Park Range above 10k ft. could receive 1-2 inches of snow briefly Friday evening. As this system exits, zonal flow will occur. Drier air and warmer conditions are expected by Saturday and Sunday. This weekend, PoPs were lowered given the decreasing QPF fields across the region. Although, there is still a chance for an isolated shower or two. There is quite a bit of uncertainty next week. WPC Cluster 500- hpa Height Analysis indicates a large spread of ensemble members in agreement of trough pattern focusing on the Central Plains mainly southeastern Wyoming, Colorado and western Nebraska. If this pattern were to occur, it may lead to a plethora of thunderstorms Monday evening across the eastern plains given QPF amounts of 0.10-0.30 are somewhat in agreement across model runs. Additionally, there is disagreement if this system exits our region by Tuesday. Thus, kept the NBM PoPs for now between 10-30% for the mountains and plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Main challenge today will be the near term winds (through 00z this evening) as a lee cyclone develops, followed by a fairly strong frontal passage later in the afternoon. Guidance remains inconsistent with wind directions, speeds, and timing of wind shifts through this period. Behind the front, a gradual increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected through the evening, with scattered showers developing near/after 00z. Any showers would likely bring ceilings down to around 5-6kft AGL for brief periods. A weak anticyclone is expected to develop tomorrow morning, with light easterly flow across the terminals. No ceiling or visibility concerns are anticipated for Thursday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hiris SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...AD AVIATION...Hiris