488
FXUS62 KCAE 021821
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
221 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the region through tonight
with patchy fog and stratus during the early morning and sunrise
hours. Warm conditions expected to continue for Friday before
rain chances steadily increase late Friday evening into
Saturday. Deep moisture convergence coinciding with an upper
level trough will drive widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms Saturday. Lingering moisture and little changes
aloft will yield further shower-storm chances Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic Seaboard with a
disorganized frontal boundary from the central Great lakes
through the Lower MS River Valley. Across the forecast area
east- southeasterly winds continue advecting moisture into the
area with a cumulus field developing. Although there is ample
low level moisture there is dry air in the mid and upper levels
so expect the cumulus to be vertically limited this afternoon
with no showers expected. Temperatures have warmed quickly
through the early afternoon with many locations in the mid and
upper 80s. With another couple hours of heating to go have
increased high temperatures slightly with mostly locations in
the upper 80s to low 90s and slightly cooler along lake shores.

With sunset much of the cumulus will dissipate however with the
low level moisture remaining expect patchy fog and stratus to
develop during the early morning and sunrise hours. Signs are
again appearing for some dense fog however with some clouds
possible around 5 kft have not included mention of dense fog
attm. Temperatures tonight will generally be in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After some patchy fog Friday morning, a generally dry and warm
day is expected, at least into the afternoon, as an upper ridge
remains overhead and a high pressure sits just offshore. The
upper ridge is forecast to stay generally in place through the
short term; however, a shortwave disturbance is expected to
move through the region. This feature brings increasing chances
for showers and some isolated thunderstorms beginning Friday
afternoon to the upper CSRA and gradually spreading eastward
overnight and into Saturday. Some stronger moisture convergence
on Saturday brings higher chances for more widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms to the area, but severe weather is
not likely due to a general lack of sufficient instability and
wind shear. With extensive cloud cover and more widespread
showers, temperatures Saturday are expected to be closer to
average or a little below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A summer-like pattern is expected to remain over the area for
much of the long term as the upper ridge stays generally in
place. A series of shortwaves moving through the broader flow
brings unsettled weather through midweek, with daily chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. The pattern begins to settle
down for the latter portions of the week ahead, with afternoon
highs expected to be well above average at the end of the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the most of the period with restrictions
expected during the early morning and sunrise hours.

High pressure will remain northeast of the TAF sites through the
period with easterly flow gradually pushing moisture into the
area. Cumulus which have developed today will remain vertically
limited with no showers expected. This evening the cumulus will
diminish however with the low level moisture remaining high
expect fog and stratus to again develop during the early morning
and sunrise hours. Have included mention of MVFR fog at
CAE/CUB/DNL with IFR/LIFR at AGS/OGB. Expect the fog and stratus
to mix out around 13z with the remainder of the period VFR.
Winds from 13z through the end of the period will be southerly
around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog and stratus
possible through the period. Increased potential for showers and
thunderstorms Friday evening through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$