252
FXUS64 KCRP 032110
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
410 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the
  western Brush Country late this afternoon through late this
  evening.

Main concern is this evening with the chances for thunderstorms, and
whether they will become severe. High pressure is off to the east
centered over Mississippi, and a sfc low is in northern Mexico. The
pressure gradient has tightened over the Coastal Bend, and caused
the winds to increase for a time this afternoon and into the
evening. Thunderstorms are beginning to break out in the Big Bend
region with the sfc trough that is aligned with the Rio Grande
Valley. The HRRR/ARW/FV3 seem to have a good handle on this, with
the GFS and ECMWF as well, but the larger models have weaker
precipitation. Between 00z and 03z the storms are expected to move
into northern Webb and Lasalle counties and move toward the
southeast, but as they do the sfc high in Mississippi, is expected
to build to the southwest, into the Coastal Bend, eastern Brush
Country, and Victoria Crossroads. The models expect that the
thunderstorms will get stopped by the sfc high, or pushed south down
the Rio Grande Plains. The NAM barely has the thunder getting into
the region, before it gets squashed. The only thing overnight then
is isolated showers, and with the PWAT around 1.5" or better, a
shower here or there is a low chance (<20%). Saturday, the front
north of the Hill Country looks to remain there, with chances  for
rain to move south low (<10%), as the sfc high remains along the
Coastal Bend. Saturday night, the models begin to move the front.
the GFS pushes most of the thunderstorms to the east with the
isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers creeping into the
Brush Country. ECMWF pushes it a bit south and has a 500 mb
shortwave that runs over the western part, kicking off rain in the
western Hill Country, and getting rain into the Brush Country
overnight. The NBM has a blend of the two solutions with slight
chance to chance pops (15-40%) From Victoria to Laredo and locations
north.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week

Conditions begin with a low to medium chance (30-45%) for scattered
thunderstorms Sunday. This will be due to some above normal PWAT
values around the 99th percentile along with some associated energy
from a upper level disturbance moving across the region to the
north. The caveat with these storms will be the solid CIN values
across the area which should largely keep things in check. The
northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads should have the best
chances for any convection due to some breaks in higher CIN values.


Temperatures will warm after the disturbance clears and expect our
next shot of summer weather by Tuesday. Unfortunately, heat indices
will be in the 110-115 degree range across the Coastal Plains and
Brush Country Tuesday through Thursday. Therefore, heat stress
related impacts will likely occur and the proper preparations should
be done in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated showers are in the Victoria Crossroads, and the chances
are expected to remain low (chance <30%) that at VCT, CRP, and
ALI. In the meantime, MVFR CIGs are expected through the evening,
until the low clouds and fog move back into the region overnight.
An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop in the Rio Grande
Valley to the north or along the Sierra Madre and move southeast
into COT and LRD after 00z/SAT and last through about 03z/SAT
before they die off or move out of the forecast area. The rest of
the night will have MVFR to IFR CIGs and probably MVFR to VFR
VSBYs as the moisture remains high overnight. Ceilings will rise
late in the morning to MVFR, and possibly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has
strengthened our onshore flow this afternoon so that a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect until 100 AM Saturday Morning. However, the
high pressure will nose into the Coastal Bend overnight allowing
the flow to weaken. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected during the day Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow
will continue through late next week with seas around 3-6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  88  75  87 /  20  20  10  20
Victoria          73  87  73  85 /  30  10  30  30
Laredo            76  94  75  91 /  40  20  30  40
Alice             74  91  74  89 /  20  20  20  30
Rockport          75  84  75  84 /  20  20  20  20
Cotulla           76  94  75  89 /  40  10  40  40
Kingsville        74  89  75  88 /  20  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       76  85  76  85 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ255-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...JSL