534
FXUS63 KDDC 090729
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
229 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly quiet weather through the end of the workweek

- Increasing chances of rain through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows some 500 mb
vorticity advection leading to a band of mid level clouds
developing across far southwest Kansas. An upper level low
centered over Sioux Falls, SD has led to a cold front sweeping
across the central plains and cold air advection extending into
central Oklahoma.

Throughout today an upper level low is expected to develop in
Utah and will propagate an upper level shortwave which is
expected to move into southwest Kansas from the late morning
through the early afternoon. This will keep a band of mid to
high level clouds in place and with little moisture near the
surface the rain chances should be less than 15%...however some
virga or sprinkles could be possible from the late morning
through the afternoon. Winds in the boundary layer will be out
of the north through the day so diurnal heating will only
increase 850 mb temperatures modestly to 12-14 (C). Highs will
be mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

Tonight the upper low moves into western Colorado and a 700 mb
shortwave is forecast to go from southeast Colorado to
southwest Kansas. Short term models are hinting at a band of
rain showers trying to make it from southeast Colorado into
southwest Kansas. As a result I added (~20%) POPs from Elkhart
to Liberal during the overnight hours and rainfall amounts if
they occur should only be a few hundredths.

Friday with west to northwest flow along and winds in the
boundary layer still out of the north we should continue with a
cooler air mass and some mid to high level clouds to decrease
the diurnal heating a bit. Highs should once again get back into
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Encouraging trends in the long term are indicating we could see
a decent amount of rainfall across southwest Kansas from Sunday
into Monday. Ensemble setups show the closed low slowly moving
eastward into the central plains from late Saturday night
through Monday afternoon. With the upper air winds on the south
side of the low showing a decreasing trend this would also
suggest the propagation eastward of the low to slow down as
well. Ahead of the low on Saturday we should have south to
southeast winds helping to bring in gulf moisture before the
main forcing enters into Kansas. Ensemble trends for
precipitation amounts are 50-100% of all of southwest Kansas
seeing at least 0.10 inch and around 30-50% chance of 0.50 inch
of rain for areas from Dodge City to Pratt and south. NBMv4.1
probability for precipitation has increase to likely (60-70%) on
Sunday and I see no reason to disagree at this point. Severe
weather with this system is little to no threat and just
general rainshowers with embedded thunderstorms should be
expected with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the TAF time cycle.
A band of mid level clouds will likely lead to BKN to OVC skies
at times through the morning hours. Winds in general should be
sustained at 8-12 kts with gusts to 15 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro