383
FNUS73 KDLH 101224
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Roos RX...WI DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
724 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 10.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

There is a 30% chance of very light and localized rain showers moving
through the fire from 1000 to 1300 LT today along a cold
front moving southeast across the Northland today. After a one to two hour break,
scattered thunderstorms may (50% chance) move near the fire site in the
late afternoon and early evening hours today. Isolated strong thunderstorms
with localized erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph and small hail possible
in the strongest storms. Localized rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25"
are likely with any showers or storms, but the scattered nature of
the rain could lead to areas seeing less than a tenth of an inch.
Winds start out southwesterly from 5 to 8 mph ahead of the front
during the morning, but quickly shift westerly and increase in speed
by early afternoon, and then further shift northwesterly in the mid-
to late afternoon with 20 ft winds increasing to over 20 mph.
Minimum RH in the afternoon drops to 40 percent due to deeper
mixing heights today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then rain
                    showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    shifting to the northwest 9 to 10 mph with
                    gusts to around 21 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 5100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest
                    15 to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5000-24500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (71300-87300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.15 inches.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  MC
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  20  20  40  50  60  50  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............39  46  53  56  60  62  63  64  63  62
RH..............73  60  48  47  44  44  44  43  43  43
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   4   6   7   7   7   9   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   13  15  15  15  15  16  19  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.4 3.5 4.8 4.1 5.1 4.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   14  15  15  16  15  17  21  20  20
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10005   15  23  25  33  46  71  74  87  77

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2000, then 2 until 2200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 20 mph decreasing to 9 to 12
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (23600-39900 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor (3500-10400 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     20     10     10     0      0
LAL.............3      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............61     54     48     45     44     41
RH..............44     57     71     76     79     85
20 ft wind......NW 10  NW 7   NW 4   NW 5   NW 6   NW 6
20 ft wind gust.20     14     9      11     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   900    500    600    600    600
Transport wind..NW 20  NW 13  NW 9   NW 10  NW 12  N 12
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100040     10     4      5      6      6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 5700 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 7500 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon decreasing to 4900 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 17 mph shifting to the west around
                    9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4500-13800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair (28500 knot-ft) late in the morning, then
                    increasing to good (56200 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning increasing to good to excellent
                    (57900-94000 knot-ft) late in the morning
                    decreasing to good (41300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............40     46     57     62     66     68
RH..............89     76     53     41     33     31
20 ft wind......NW 6   NW 6   N 7    NW 8   NW 8   NW 8
20 ft wind gust.12     12     13     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1300   4000   6700   7500   6400
Transport wind..N 12   N 13   N 16   N 16   NW 12  NW 10
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10005      14     56     94     78     58

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Zak Neitzel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413685.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zachary.neitzel@wisconsin.gov