Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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477 FXUS64 KEPZ 282327 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 527 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Through the week and next weekend, quiet weather is expected for the Borderland. Dry air and generally light winds are forecast for the period. Breezy winds arrive Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. Temperatures rebound to above normal through midweek then cool to near average behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Not much impactful weather is forecast for this period. A secondary upper trough swings through NM this evening with enough lift and moisture to produce a CU field over the Gila Region this afternoon. Other than an isolated sprinkle into Sierra county this evening, dry conditions persist for tonight with light winds. For Monday and Tuesday, generally zonal flow will keep weather quiet with rising temperatures and slightly breezier winds. An upper trough passes through the northern Rockies Wed-Thu, creating a 995-ish mb lee cyclone in SE CO Wed PM. 20-25kts at 850mb are modeled for Wed, making for a breezy afternoon with gusts to 35 mph. The surface low ejects into the Plains by Thursday as a cold front moves in from the Rockies/High Plains associated with the upper trough. The side-door/backdoor front is modeled to push through Thursday night, bringing in cooler air and a bit of moisture from the east. Winds are expected to stay breezy through Thu as the upper trough and cold front pass by. GEFS mean and GFS deterministic show a weak shortwave moving in for Saturday, providing a bit of forcing for possible showers and storms, especially in eastern areas. Slight PoPs remain in the grids for Sat in case the shortwave and moisture come together just right to spark some convection. Deep SW flow returns early next week, flushing out the moisture to the east and creating dry and breezy conditions. Temperatures will be above normal through Wed or Thu depending on the speed of the cold front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Things are calmer and less dusty this afternoon than previous days. We do have some low end gusty winds, but those wind gusts will drop off around sunset this evening. Our winds tonight will be light and variable or light from the southwest. On Monday the south to southwest winds will continue and like today, we may see some low end gusty winds for a few hours during the afternoon. We have some clouds across Sierra County this afternoon in association with an upper level trough well to our north. Those clouds will quickly move off in the next few hours and we will have unlimited ceilings tonight and through the day on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Fire weather concerns increase into midweek but should not reach critical levels. Dry conditions persist through the workweek before some moisture moves in from the east late in the period. Winds will be generally light on Monday from the southwest as temperatures warm to near or above normal. Tuesday will be slightly warmer and breezier with elevated fire danger. Winds become breezy Wednesday and Thursday as an upper trough swings through the Rockies. Mostly near-critical conditions expected Wed-Thu as fuels continue to dry. Winds shift easterly for Friday behind a cold front. Temperatures will be above average through midweek before the front moves through. Min RHs will be 5-15% through Friday. Vent rates will be good to very good Monday, then mostly excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 55 85 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 79 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 49 84 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 46 79 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 58 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 80 52 86 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 43 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 44 82 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 84 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 48 86 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 75 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 84 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 81 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 82 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 81 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 45 83 47 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 81 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 79 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 68 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 68 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 40 75 44 79 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 79 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 44 80 46 86 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 40 78 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 43 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 44 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 44 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 44 82 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 81 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 81 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 76 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice