693
FXUS62 KFFC 061047
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
647 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The mid levels continue to remain active across the CWA during the
short term period of the forecast. High pressure remains in control
of the sensible weather at the surface.

500mb analysis shows a shortwave moving through the CWA early this
morning. The system has provided just enough lift for showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning. A secondary shortwave is noted
over northern MS, in the base of a trough. This second shortwave may
skirt the CWA just to the north, but maybe provide just enough lift
for sct shra/tsra this afternoon and evening. With the system
passing further north, the highest pops should be across far N GA
this afternoon/evening. Shortwave ridging should build in for
Tuesday, but isold/sct afternoon/evening storms are expected again.

With the early morning activity, convection may end up getting
somewhat of a later start this afternoon and evening over the
southern two thirds of the CWA. A few strong storms will be
possible, producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Transient shortwave ridging will begin to transition back to west
southwest flow aloft on Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will
likely reach the warmest levels of the week with afternoon ranging
from the mid-to-upper 80s in north Georgia to lower 90s in Middle
Georgia. With a quasi-stationary surface front situated across the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, PoPs Wednesday will be highest
across north Georgia with lower chances farther south.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to a
shortwave moving along the aforementioned frontal zone Wednesday
afternoon. This activity will shift southeastward through Thursday
morning, likely in the form of a gradually decaying convective
complex. As such, PoPs will begin to increase across north
Georgia by Thursday morning, and the potential for any strong to
severe thunderstorms with an attendant damaging wind threat will
need to be monitored as it pushes into our area.

The surface cold front will get a kick into the state through the
day Thursday as the upper trough swings through the Great Lakes
region. Depending on how morning activity pans out and the degree to
which afternoon instability recovers ahead of the front, additional
thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening could pose
a further severe threat. With PWATs in advance of the front
potentially nearing 2", locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

By Thursday night into Friday, the bulk of PoPs should be relegated
into Middle Georgia as the front continues to push southward. A
cooler and drier airmass will gradually filter from north to south
in the wake of the front, setting up a much cooler and less active
weekend forecast. Below normal temperatures are likely to persist
into early next week.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Some small potential for patchy MVFR cigs this morning, but it
remains low. VFR for the remainder of the day, outside of any
storms. Complex over northern AL should mostly skirt north of ATL
this morning, but will have to monitor if the system holds
together/or dives a little further south. Atmos is fairly stable
from overnight convection and with the potential cloud cover from
the system across northern AL, afternoon convection could be late.
Coverage is still in question. Winds should switch over to the SW
side by mid morning and remain on the west side through the
remainder of the period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  87  67  88 /  40  30  20  30
Atlanta         67  86  68  88 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     61  80  63  82 /  40  40  40  50
Cartersville    64  86  66  87 /  30  40  40  40
Columbus        67  90  69  92 /  20  20   0  10
Gainesville     65  85  68  86 /  40  30  30  40
Macon           65  89  68  90 /  30  20   0  10
Rome            65  85  66  87 /  30  40  40  40
Peachtree City  65  87  68  89 /  30  30  20  20
Vidalia         68  91  70  92 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa