523
FXUS63 KFGF 271744
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another period of rain is expected Sunday into Monday, with a
  60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.50 inches
  mainly along and east of the Red River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Little bit of light rain still extending into northwestern MN
and portions of the Red River Valley, but there overall has been
a diminishing trend during the late morning. This should
continue into the afternoon hours and the decreasing POPs
continue to seem reasonable.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Adjusted POPs for as there is a decent area of showers along and
southeast of the Fargo area, along with some more showers
between the Devils Lake Basin and Grand Forks. Should see the
showers move east and begin to taper off this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Light showers continue across most of the FA and will for most
of the morning. More light showers have been filling in again
across the central Valley. No changes are needed to the forecast
at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Regional radar imagery shows two areas with steadier rain early
this morning, one centered around St. Cloud Minnesota and the
other extending along the Canadian border back toward Langdon
and west of Devils Lake. The area around St. Cloud is tied to
the main 700mb circulation, which shows up nicely on water
vapor imagery. The other area is a deformation band, which is
slowly getting cutoff. There has been some lightning associated
with the first area, mainly across Crow Wing County, just to the
east of the FA. For today, basically expect the 700mb low to
continue to lift northeast, with high pressure building in
behind it. However, until this happens by late morning or early
afternoon, there will be some lingering showers across the FA.
Additional precipitation amounts look to stay under a tenth of
an inch.

There won`t be much of a break in the action, with the next
round of precipitation arriving Sunday into Monday. This system
looks very similar to one exiting the area today, with a 700mb
low lifting up through the FA and on into the Minnesota
arrowhead. This 700mb low may be a little further north,
allowing more of the FA to get into the higher probabilities for
half an inch of rain or more (most of the Red River Valley east
into west central and northwest Minnesota has about a 60 percent
probability for amounts greater than 0.50 inches). These
probabilities drop off quite a bit from the Devils Lake region
into the far northern Valley (20-40 percent).

As this low pushes off to the east Monday night, there should
be another short break from the rain. However, the parade of
waves is expected to continue, with another one working into the
FA Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much more uncertainty works into
the precipitation forecast for the Wednesday through Saturday
period. The NBM keeps widespread low (20 percent) precipitation
chances throughout this entire time period. This will continue
until there is better resolution on how any of the additional
waves will kick out. It does appear to remain on the cloudy
side, so temperatures will stay cooler overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Light rain continues at KGFK and KTVF, but should taper off in
the next few hours. A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings as moisture
continues to wrap around low pressure, although there are some
signs of clearing along our far western edge. Think that KDVL
could see some VFR conditions later in the afternoon or evening,
but guidance has MVFR clouds returning for tomorrow morning.
All of the other airports will be MVFR going down to IFR then
back to MVFR. Winds that are gusting to above 25 kts this
afternoon from the north will decrease and shift to the
northeast, then east by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR