482
FXUS64 KFWD 060622
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Tuesday Afternoon/

An upper low that is currently moving through the southwestern CONUS
will continue its trek eastward, eventually providing the upper
support for our conditional storm chances later today.

The aforementioned shortwave will swing to the northeast, spreading
increased forcing for ascent across the region. Once caveat is
that forecast soundings show an 850mb capping inversion through
this afternoon, which will inhibit convective initiation for much
of the day. The occurrence of storms across our area today is
conditional on the cap breaking. *IF* the cap is able to break
due to strong afternoon heating, then isolated severe
thunderstorms would be expected along and ahead of the dryline. Any
storm that forms today across North Texas will have the potential
to quickly become severe as the environment will be unstable with
2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. The main threats for today will be large
to very large hail and damaging winds. There is an attendant
tornado threat, especially with the more discrete storms, but low
level shear magnitude is marginal to keep this a more tertiary
threat. Prior to the cap potentially breaking, we`ll be watching
for a few scattered warm advection-induced showers/storms out
ahead of the dryline.

Overall, the severe threat for our area remains highest generally
north of I-20, though Oklahoma has the greatest threat of the
day. Nonetheless, if you are out and about today make sure to have
multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon and evening if
storms do impact your area as they will be able to become severe
quickly.

The storm chances will come to an end by Tuesday morning as a cold
front approaches North Texas. The cold front will move south and
overtake the northern portion of the dryline early tomorrow as a
secondary shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the main
longwave trough. This front will make it into portions of North
and Central Texas by the afternoon before stalling as the
shortwave quickly ejects to the northeast. This front will not
make too much change within our sensible weather, aside from
scouring out some of the lower- level moisture behind it.
Afternoon temperatures are still expected to peak in the mid 80s
to around 90.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with only a
few adjustments to PoPs and temperatures through the middle of
next week. An unsettled pattern will continue through Wednesday
and Thursday with potential for showers and thunderstorms
remaining across portions of North and Central Texas, primarily
along and east of the I-35 corridor. There will be a low chance
for isolated instances of severe weather across this area on
Wednesday, primarily for a large hail, damaging wind, and flash
flooding threat. Additional potential will exist on Thursday as
well, but confidence in the spatial distribution of thunderstorms
is not terribly high at this time. Because of this, a broad-stroke
inclusion of low PoPs remains necessary until details can be
further refined with hi-res model guidance in the coming days.

Temperatures will be on the rise through the middle of the week,
with afternoon highs reaching into the low 90s across Central
Texas. Coupled with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices
will quickly approach the 100 degree mark. It will be important
to start considering heat safety precautions as this brief stretch
of late-spring heat kicks into gear. While we won`t be hitting
any heat product criteria (thankfully), this initial adjustment to
the heat could cause some issues with our more vulnerable
population. This will not last long however as a strong cold front
sweeps in across the region, bringing temperatures down to
seasonal normals and allowing for a stretch of dry weather through
the upcoming weekend. For more details, please see the previous
discussion below and continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Next Week Through Mother`s Day Weekend/

By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present
over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the
Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin
to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline
lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional
pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds
will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry
advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above
climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central
Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief
however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby
dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler
post-frontal air to the region mid to late week.

On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with
forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence
and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will
result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally,
the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become
another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position
(near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong
instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be
favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second
shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly
sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing
upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify
over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable
but dry start to Mother`s Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s.
Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however,
as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have reached ACT and will reach D10 closer to 10Z.
Flying conditions will degrade further with IFR cigs expected at
the TAF sites around daybreak. Over this afternoon, ceilings
should gradually lift back to above 2kft alongside breezy
southerly winds. There are low chances for isolated storms across
the region this afternoon and evening, but occurrence is too
uncertain to include in the TAFs at this time. Conditions will
continue to improve to VFR this evening. Another round of MVFR
stratus is expected later tonight/tomorrow morning at the TAF
sites.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  89  72  89  66 /  20   0   5  20  20
Waco                70  87  71  88  69 /  10   0   5  10  10
Paris               69  87  70  85  63 /  40   0  10  40  50
Denton              66  87  70  88  63 /  20   0   5  20  20
McKinney            69  87  70  87  64 /  20   0   5  20  30
Dallas              71  90  72  90  67 /  20   0   5  20  20
Terrell             70  86  71  87  65 /  20   0   5  20  30
Corsicana           72  89  73  88  69 /  10   0   5  20  20
Temple              70  88  71  88  69 /  10   0   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       65  87  70  90  63 /  10   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$