437
FXUS64 KFWD 011139
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
639 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made to the previous forecast. An outflow
boundary pushed through earlier this morning and brought about a
brief period of northerly winds. This also dropped temperatures
down a degree or two across the Red River, but otherwise this
feature has largely washed out by the time of writing this.
Continue to monitor the forecast through the day ahead of our
severe weather potential this afternoon through the overnight
hours. As for the flooding potential, we have issued a Flood Watch
through tomorrow afternoon for portions of North and Central
Texas. For more details, see the previous discussion below.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday Morning/

Storms are currently straddling the Red River as an outflow
boundary pushes south into North Texas. While this will greatly
limit the severe weather potential, a few storms could be strong
to marginally severe. The main concerns would be hail and gusty
winds, though any opportunity for this will be brief. That is due
to the aforementioned boundary that is undercutting their warm
inflow, limiting their severe potential. These should weaken over
the next few hours before dissipating entirely before sunrise.

Our attention then turns to our next round of showers and
thunderstorms that will start Wednesday afternoon and evening
through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. This will be
our best opportunity for scattered to more widespread severe
weather as the latest hi-res guidance continues to reveal
convective activity developing, then rapidly growing upscale into
an MCS as it moves into our area. Our local storm environment will
be conducive for severe weather in the form of large hail and
damaging winds. Favorable deep layer shear, steep lapse rates, and
instability will all be available for storms to work with as they
develop and evolve. There is also low-end potential for
tornadogenesis while storms remain more discrete and this
potential will continue to exist should they develop into an
organized linear structure through the overnight hours. That all
being said, be sure to play close attention to the forecast
through tomorrow afternoon and evening into Thursday.

In addition to our severe weather potential is our flash flooding
concerns for locations mainly along and south of I-20 where
already saturated soils exist. Several waves of convective
activity Wednesday into Thursday afternoon could reaggravate
recent flooding issues. The latest 6-hour precipitation
probabilities courtesy of the HREF show a medium chance (30-50%)
of greater than 3 inches of rainfall for most of Central Texas.
This can be used as a proxy for gauging flooding concerns, and
confidence is increasing due to run to run consistency. Moreover,
about 10% of the area could receive upwards of 5 inches of rain
in a 6-hour span. The overall environment will be supportive of
flash flooding on top of our antecedent conditions. Because of
this,a Flood Watch is now being considered across this area
through Thursday afternoon and will likely be issued before the
morning update.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 414 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

The overnight MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern and
southern parts of our forecast area early Thursday morning, mainly
the trailing stratiform portion of the MCS. There is about a 10%
chance of backbuilding convection on the upshear flank of the
system continuing through the morning in Central Texas. This would
drastically increase and prolong the flood threat. There is a low
probability of this occurring, but the impact of it is high
enough that it is worth mentioning.

A lull in convective activity is expected in the early afternoon
Thursday as the MCS moves East before additional storms develop
along a cold front and dryline late in the day. Convective
initiation is expected near a triple point in western North
Texas...consensus in the guidance generally has this taking place
between Childress-Wichita Falls and as far south as Abilene. The
convective mode will start as supercells that transition to
outflow dominate clusters as they move into our forecast area
overnight into Friday morning. All modes of severe weather will be
possible with the supercells, but only a few strong to marginally
severe wind gusts or hail stones will be possible once the storms
become outflow dominant Thursday night.

The cold front will then flutter near the area Friday with
additional scattered storms developing along the boundary in the
afternoon. Guidance has started to latch on to a stronger cold
front moving down the Plains late Friday into Saturday, stalling
in or near North Texas Saturday. One again...scattered storms are
expected to develop along the boundary in the afternoon. The best
chance for storms will be Saturday night and Sunday as a shortwave
trough moves over the front. The front should then lift north and
wash out, leaving our area precip-free and under the influence of
a warm and humid airmass next week.

Ensemble trends are still indicating the development of a strong
mid-level ridge over the Gulf Coast in the middle and late parts
of next week. This would result in a warming trend with highs in
the 90s more likely than not (50-70% chance for most locations
south of I-20) from Tuesday onward. Since surface moisture will
not be significantly scoured, heat index values will become
important next week...especially across Central and East Texas
where heat index values in the upper 90s or even low 100s are
possible next Wednesday-Thursday.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings, Storm Potential This Evening.

A stratus intrusion has developed across our westernmost coverage
area, well west of the D10 TAF sites. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
currently working their way toward Waco at the time of writing
this discussion. Decided to remove the IFR TEMPO group from the
D10 TAFs as confidence has decreased in them making it this far
north. That being said, a low chance (10%) does remain that they
do make it up this way. Ceilings should improve through the late
morning into the early afternoon.

Our attention then turns to the overnight hours through early
tomorrow morning where thunderstorms are likely to push through
all TAF sites. Current timing remains around the 04-05z timeframe
for the D10 terminals. These should exit to the east around
08-09z, but this will be monitored through future TAF issuances.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  68  82  69  82 /  20  70  70  50  20
Waco                83  67  81  70  82 /  30  80  60  40  20
Paris               84  66  77  66  80 /  10  60  80  70  40
Denton              83  67  81  65  80 /  10  70  60  50  20
McKinney            83  67  79  67  81 /  10  70  70  60  20
Dallas              86  68  82  69  83 /  20  70  70  50  20
Terrell             84  67  80  67  81 /  10  70  80  60  30
Corsicana           85  69  81  70  83 /  20  80  80  50  30
Temple              82  68  81  70  82 /  40  80  50  30  20
Mineral Wells       82  67  84  67  81 /  20  70  50  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
TXZ121-122-134-135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$