295
FXHW60 PHFO 291315
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 AM HST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through the
first half of the work week, while lighter trades over the
western islands allow for some leeward land and sea breezes.
Relatively dry weather will persist through Tuesday, with a few
showers affecting windward areas overnight into the early morning
hours and developing over interior and leeward areas each
afternoon. The trades will rebound Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing a transition over to more typical trade wind weather. The
trades will become breezy Thursday through next weekend, and the
trade wind showers may increase as well due to a disturbance aloft
moving over the islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a weakening front is located around 450
miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1031 mb high is centered
around 1600 miles northeast of Honolulu. Moderate trade winds
prevail in unsheltered areas over the eastern end of the state,
while lighter trades persist over the western islands. Infrared
satellite imagery shows a combination of high and low clouds
resulting in mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar
imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward areas, with
mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term focus continues
to revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances during the
next few days.

A front northwest of the islands will weaken into a trough and
edge slowly eastward during the next couple days. Little change
is expected in the overall wind forecast, with moderate trades
holding on over the eastern end of the state, while lighter trades
prevail over the western islands, allowing some leeward sea and
land breezes to develop. We should see the trades start to rebound
beginning Tuesday night as the trough west of the state begins to
shift slowly westward. Moderate to locally breezy trades should
overspread the island chain by late Wednesday, with the trades
becoming breezy Thursday through the weekend.

As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry conditions
should generally prevail across the island chain through Tuesday.
Brief passing showers will be possible in windward areas overnight
into the early morning hours, with a few showers developing over
interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A few showers could be
a bit more robust over Kauai and potentially Oahu this afternoon,
as some shortwave energy grazes by just to the north. We should
see a transition over to more typical trade wind weather Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with wetter trade wind conditions potentially
developing Friday through the weekend as upper troughing sets up
over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate ESE winds will continue through Tuesday and
VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail. However, low
clouds and light showers are persisting across windward portions
of Kauai, Maui and the Big Island early this morning, bringing
periodic MVFR conditions to these areas. As such, AIRMET Sierra
for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect.

High clouds will continue to stream across the Hawaiian Islands
today as an upper level jet streak moves in from the west.
Tempo moderate turbulence around FL300 to FL380 may accompany
this feature...and AIRMET Tango may be needed through the day.

Otherwise, with the lighter ESE flow, afternoon sea breeze
activity is expected across wind- sheltered areas, with some
inland/leeward cloud buildups and a few light showers possible.
However, the high clouds may inhibit heating over land, and
therefore limit sea breeze activity.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will continue to slide
east while a weak dying front to the northwest edges slowly
eastward. Winds will ease through Tuesday and the Small Craft
Advisory has been cancelled for all zones this morning. By mid-
week, high pressure will rebuild to the northeast transitioning
back to typically fresh to locally strong trade winds. The SCA
will likely go back up for the typical windy waters around Maui
County and the Big Island.

North facing shores will remain small through the week with tiny
to small medium period background energy. Surf along east facing
shores will continue to decline as winds begin to taper off
through Tuesday. A small long period south- southwest pulse will
fill in through the day, peak Tuesday and ease Wednesday for south
facing shores. Surf heights along the south facing shores should
remain near or slightly below seasonal norms.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Shigesato