Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
756 FXUS66 KHNX 080948 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 248 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The warming trend is anticipated to continue today through next Wednesday. 2. By next Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Central California will be around 10 to 14 degrees above normal for this time of year. 3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Friday afternoon and then each afternoon on Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is currently centered over the center of the CONUS. This trough is expected to detach from the main flow and retrograde to the west. A ridge will build in from the Pacific and lead to a cut-off trough that will be centered over Nevada. This cut-off is expected to lead to a chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada Friday afternoon. The cut-off will begin moving east again by Saturday afternoon, which will reduce thunderstorms chances in the mountains. A second, weak, cut-off is expected to be under another ridge as the pattern moves to the east. This will lead to another increase in thunderstorm chances for the afternoons on Sunday and Monday. Chances for thunderstorms for those days will be around 10-15%. A warming trend will be occuring during this time, as the ridge will lead to an increase in afternoon highs from today through Sunday. These high temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees above normal. High temperatures will be similar from Sunday through Tuesday as the cut-offs move through the area. Then, by next Wednesday, Central California is expected to be under the complete influence of the ridge, leading to an increase in temperatures again, which will be around 10 to 14 degrees above normal. Here are the current probabilities for select locations in the San Joaquin Valley seeing 95 degrees or more next Wednesday: Fresno: 51% Hanford: 51% Visalia: 51% Bakersfield: 46% Delano: 46% Lemoore: 46% Madera: 41% Merced: 41% Porterville: 41% Reedley: 31% Long trend ensemble models are showing the ridge will stay over the area through Thursday. Then the ridge will move east and California will come under the influence of the outer area of a trough in the Pacific Ocean off the southern coast of Alaska. This would lead to a decrease in afternoons highs relative to next Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/07/2024 13:54 EXPIRES: 05/08/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather.....EW DSS/PIO..........................BS weather.gov/hanford