952
FXUS63 KICT 010528
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late afternoon evening storms possible along and especially
  east of I-135. Severe storms likely with any storm that
  develops along the front.

- Evening storms may add to the ongoing flooding issues from the
  Flint Hills into southeast KS.

- Additional storms likely on Wed with severe storms again
  possible, especially west of I-135.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows some shortwave energy
lifting across Eastern Nebraska with the main upper trough still
back over the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, Pacific
front/dryline extends from eastern Nebraska to near KSLN and
just northwest of KHUT.

Front/dryline will continue tracking east this afternoon and by
21z is expected to extend generally along or just west of I-135.
Storms are expected to develop along the boundary generally in
the 20-23z time frame. Confidence on the more widespread
activity is still higher further north, closer to the better
upper dynamics and further away from weak high rises. However,
almost all of the CAMs are developing storms in our forecast
area, which makes sense given the extreme instability and
minimal capping. With an abundance of instability and modest
deep layer shear, still looking for supercells with large hail
and damaging winds possible. Can`t rule out a brief tornado,
given the presence of decent 0-3km CAPE and a sharp boundary,
especially if a storm can remain anchored on it for a period of
time. As the storms track off to the east this evening, they
will be moving into an area that has already seen extreme
rainfall the last several days, so flooding would become more
likely. So the current flood watch looks on track.

Low level jet will increase as the evening hours progress which
will impinge on the front as it starts to lay out more east-
west. This should lead to continued storm development and
potential back-building which may lead to additional flooding,
especially over the Flint Hills along and south of Highway 400.
Starting to feel more confident that showers and storms will
linger across at least south central and southeast KS throughout
much of Wed morning as 850-700mb moisture transport persists.
In addition, a tight 700mb baroclinic zone will move through
during the morning hours which should help showers and storms
continue. With CAPE above 850mb in the 1,000-2,000J/KG range,
some large hail will remain possible with any of the storms Wed
morning.

The main question will be if and how many storms develop on the
dryline/triple point Wed afternoon/early evening. The model
trends have been to push the warm front/dryline further to the
southwest with the triple point now expected to be between Pratt
and Dodge City where yesterday at this time it looked like it
would be west of Great Bend. With the better upper forcing still
back to the west and northwest, current thinking is that we will
not get numerous storms to develop along it with just a few
storms likely. All severe hazards will be possible with any
storm that develops along the dryline late Wed afternoon/early
evening and will track off the east. So for surfaced based
convection Wed, feel areas west of I-135 will have the best
chance, generally after 22z as storms move-in from the west.
Another round of elevated storms will be possible Wed
evening/night as the better upper forcing moves out of the
Rockies and into the High Plains. Locations along and north of
I-70 will have the best chance to see this activity.

Storm chances will remain over the area on Thursday as the
front moves back through the forecast area with southeast KS
having the only chance for storms on Thu night. By 12z Fri, the
upper low will be lifting across the Upper Mississippi Valley
with westerly mid and upper flow across the Plains. Meanwhile,
the surface boundary is expected to stretch from southern MO
into southeast OK, which is where the better storm chances will
also be located. We should see a break in storm activity during
the day Fri with additional development Fri night as a fast
moving impulse slides across Nebraska, which will push another
cold front through the forecast area. Storms are expected to be
moving off to the east Sat morning with most of Sat dry.
However, both ECMWF and GFS still agree on lifting a southern
stream impulse out of the Desert Southwest and across the
Southern Plains for late Sat night into Sun which may bring a
round of showers and storms to mainly southern KS on Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Easterly component surface flow will prevail most of the night
in the wake of the convection just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. Elevated southerly return flow will increase toward dawn
as the frontal boundary begins to return north as a warm front.
This could initiate scattered convection across southern Kansas
during the post-sunrise hours later this morning. This is also
expected to promote developmental stratus cigs with high
confidence on lower end MVFR and possible IFR. Focus for
convection should shift northward with the warm front into
central Kansas during the afternoon with some development south
into the warm sector across south central Kansas, some of which
will be severe.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ069>072-093>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KED