158
FXUS61 KILN 290948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
548 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal today.
Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the area this
afternoon and continue tonight into Tuesday as a cold front
crosses the area. High pressure will then build in for midweek,
offering a dry period. A chance for precipitation will return
for the end of the week into the weekend with the approach of
the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level low over the Plains to open up and eject northeast
across the western Great Lakes today. Mid level flow backs
across the low area with 8H jet of 35-40 kts offering an axis of
low level theta-e advection. An axis of moisture and marginal
instability to advect into ILN/s FA this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. Have showers and a chance of thunderstorms
developing into the west in the late afternoon and working east
across the area thru early evening. Marginal instability and
moist soundings will limit severe weather potential today.

Warm temperatures to continue with highs from near 80 west to
the mid 80s east. Breezy conditions continue today with
southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Axis of low level theta-e advection associated with 8H jet of
35-40 kts across the area this evening. Ongoing showers and
embedded storms over the west late in the day. Instability
decreases this evening, so as the axis of showers and
thunderstorms progress east tonight the coverage of
thunderstorms will decrease. Rain totals today and tonight will
range from around and an inch in the west to a quarter to a half
inch in the east. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models solutions generally trending a little slower with the
frontal system and therefore will keep the threat for showers
and a chance for thunderstorms in the east Tuesday. Clouds look
to decrease from west to east in the afternoon and pcpn chances
diminish. Temperatures will be cooler with highs from 70 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subtle H5 height rises begin to occur at the start of the period.
Weak high pressure at the surface will be in place across the Ohio
Valley. Surface flow will shift from the west-northwest back to the
southwest for Wednesday. This, combined with the H5 ridge becoming
more amplified will lead to a spike in temperatures, with most
locations reaching 80 degrees again. Dry conditions and continued
warming will carry into Thursday. Based on latest guidance, Thursday
is now trending dry during the daytime hours for our entire CWA.

Mean ridge axis begins to shift east of our CWA Thursday night,
gradually replaced by a longwave trough. PoPs increase substantially
as we progress into Friday. There is better consensus amongst long
range models of Friday receiving the highest QPF from this system.
Chances for rain may linger into Friday night as a surface cold
front gradually moves through. Uncertainty then remains on PoPs for
Saturday depending on how the upper flow regime orients itself.
However, temperatures will certainly trend lower on Saturday.

There is a signal of a shortwave trough that ejects northeast from
the Ark-La-Tex region late Sunday into Monday. This will bring
another shot of wetter weather to the Ohio Valley, but timing
remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front
today. This will lead to an increase in mid and high level
clouds this morning and VFR clouds of 5000-6000 feet this
afternoon.

A chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop
from the west late this afternoon into this evening overspreading
the TAF sites. Ceilings will lower with MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z from west to east. A brief period of IFR ceilings is
possible late tonight into early Tuesday but confidence is too
low to mention in the TAF/s at this time.

Southerly winds will gust in to the 20 to 25 knot range this
afternoon and then shift to the northwest around 10 kts late
tonight/early Tuesday with the passage of a cold front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday morning.
MVFR to IFR ceilings possible Tuesday morning with MVFR
ceilings possibly lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR