Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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322 FXUS64 KJAN 301030 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Dense fog has developed across the area and has prompted the issuance of a dense fog advisory through 9 AM this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Today and tonight... Fog has developed across the area under clear skies in the wake of a shortwave and will likely persist through the night and into early morning. Fog will begin to mix to a low stratus deck before lifting later this morning. Clouds will gradually clear this afternoon. High temperatures should reach the mid 80s. Quiet conditions continue tonight under the influence of upper ridging and surface high pressure. This should allow temperatures to drop to the low 60s across the area tonight./SAS/ Wednesday through Monday: Warmer than normal through the period with disturbed weather as the southern branch of the jet stream meanders over the region combining with a few stalled boundaries. Come Wednesday morning shortwave ridging aloft will be over our region while a surface high will be centered over the Appalachians and ridging back across our CWA. Wl start out rather dry with PWATs less than an inch but the ridging aloft and the surface high will shift east through the day resulting in a decent return flow. PWATs will increase to nearly an inch and a half across the southwest and daytime heating will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. This activity should see a distinct diurnal trend and dissipate by early evening. Thursday a northern stream disturbance will help develop a nearly stacked low over the northern Plains. This system will drop a cold front our way. In addition a southern stream disturbance moving out of the southern Plains may develop an mcs by Thursday afternoon over east Texas that may edge into our western zones before dissipating. Rain chances will increase over our west and northwest zones Thursday and Thursday night. The cold front is expected to drop into our CWA Friday and lead to greater rain chances across our whole CWA but the greatest rain chances will be across the northwest half of the CWA. The stalled cold front will still be over our CWA Saturday when another northern stream disturbance tries to drop a boundary into our CWA. This boundary looks to stall across the northern portions of our CWA. Friday night into Monday morning rain chances will likely be confined to the north of Interstate 20 while our southern zones remain dry. Highest afternoon temperatures are expected across our southern zones that may top out near 90F each afternoon Saturday through Monday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 LIFR/IFR conditions this morning due to fog and very low ceilings. Things should improve by mid morning as most fog lifts and clouds will begin to clear by early afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period once fog clears. Winds remain light and variable./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 62 88 64 / 0 0 20 10 Meridian 84 60 88 62 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 20 10 Hattiesburg 86 63 89 64 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 85 63 87 65 / 0 10 30 0 Greenville 83 64 87 66 / 0 0 10 10 Greenwood 83 63 88 65 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075. && $$ SAS20/22/SAS20