065
FXUS62 KJAX 101823
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

SE GA and NE FL had a well organized squall line earlier this
morning, that moved through the region primarily between 830 am
and 10 am with an early day MCS.  A second round of convection
has developed and is less organized due to our atmosphere being
worked over from earlier this morning.  This broken line of showers
with embedded stretches south of the I-10 corridor along a boundary
ahead of an encroaching cool front. Ahead of the front, the best
instability this afternoon and evening is forecast to reside
mainly south of line from Crescent Beach to Ocala where CAPES are
expected to moderately increase while convergent boundary will
slide southward ahead of the southeast moving front. CAPES south
of the boundary, particularly across north central FL will rise
between 1500-2000 J/kg with our region open to the southwesterly
flow and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoints are
currently in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s are aggressively
progged by models to increase into the mid 70s across north
central FL with breezy SWLY synoptic flow. There is a low
confidence in dewpoints rising this high where CAPES are likely to
more tempered. With increasing destabilization of the atmosphere
and a pocket of CAA aloft advect over can`t rule out an isolated
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with round 2 of
convection this afternoon into the early evening, pretty much
limited over north central FL and south of SR16. Around sundown
this evening showers/thunderstorms should be on a
weakening/dissipating trend as they sink further south toward
central and south central FL as the front continues its trek
southward. High pressure will build into the region overnight with
the cold front residing over south Florida by daybreak. Overnight
lows will be mild in the lower 60s across SE GA and mid 60s to
near 70 across NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Saturday: High pressure builds in behind the cold front as it
exits the region Saturday morning. Winds will be mainly from the
north, allowing the seabreeze to come inland along the coast.
Skies will be clear in the morning and be mostly sunny in the
afternoon, with any clouds clearing out overnight. Daytime
temperatures will range in the 80s with the some southern portions
getting into the lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will be in the
upper 50 to low 60s.

Sunday: High pressure dominates the area Sunday bringing drier
conditions for the day. Expect Partly cloudy skies with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s possibly reaching into the
90s in some southern areas. Overnight temperatures will be in the
60s. Winds will be light throughout the day with the sea-breeze
picking up in the afternoon along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

The week starts off nice Monday with temperatures in the 80s and
southeasterly winds picking up in the afternoon. Cloud cover will
build from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy into the afternoon and
evening. Tuesday the rain and storms begin again with the rest of
the week looking to remain rainy. Waves of frontal boundaries will
continue to make their way through along with some shortwaves
thrown in there to help continue the rain for the week.
Temperatures Tuesday will be in the low 80s for SE GA with
temperature for NE FL ranging in the 80s and some southern
portions getting to the low 90s. Temperatures will increase into
the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A line of storms and showers will move through the area this TAF
period as a cold front pushes through. Lower cigs/vsbys as storms
pass over TAF sites, with gusty winds up to 30knots possible.
Conditions will begin to improve from 03-06Z as the cold front
moves through the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front to the north of the area will progress southeastward
across our local waters tonight.  Ahead of the front breezy southwest flow
will prevail across maritime waters through sundown with SCEC (Small Craft
Exercise Caution) levels (15-20 knots) ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Strong thunderstorms possible during the afternoon hours over the FL waters
ahead of this front. Winds shift to the northwest at SCEC levels after
midnight tonight behind the cold frontal passage and spread
across the local waters.  Winds will shift to northerly Saturday
morning, with weak high pressure the expected to build eastward
over waters on Saturday night, and persisting through Sunday. This
weather pattern will result in onshore wind development on Sunday afternoon,
with onshore winds then strengthening on Monday night ahead of an
approaching warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread
our local waters by late Monday night as this warm front lifts
northeastward across our area.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected Today
through the weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, before
onshore/SE flow increases on Monday with a potential for solid
Moderate to High Risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  82  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  65  79  64  83 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  65  84  61  85 /  30   0   0   0
SGJ  68  83  64  85 /  50   0   0   0
GNV  65  87  60  87 /  30   0   0   0
OCF  69  89  62  88 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$