Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
674 FXUS64 KMAF 290438 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 It`s quite the quiescent afternoon out there today, with temperatures hovering in the 70s and lower 80s for many, around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for late April. A light westerly breeze continues on the wake of yesterday and last night`s departing trough, which has maintained a negative tilt as it swings across the plains, shunting moisture (and severe weather) toward East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Locally, pleasant, dry conditions will continue, with lows tonight in the 50s for most, with 40s north and in the mountains, and lower 60s along the Rio Grande. Another pleasant day is ahead for Monday, albeit with warming temperatures thanks to the development of weak lee surface trough to the north of the region that will maintain westerly downslope flow. Highs Monday afternoon are progged to top out a few degrees above normal, reaching the middle to upper 80s for most, with 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. As winds shift to the south and southeast and return flow commences Monday night with the return of the low- level jet, the increase in moisture will yield an increase in low temperatures, which will range from the 50s west to 60s east. JP && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The main feature in the long term will be a large upper level trough moving across Central CONUS which will shoot a cold front down to the area late in the week. Before this, however, a disturbance moving across Texas Tuesday evening may initiate a few storms across the eastern Permian Basin, but moisture will be fairly limited and not much in the way of rain is expected. As this moves off, weak ridging sets up over West Texas and southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing will usher in low level moisture, helping to sharpen the dryline both Wednesday and Thursday. As is typical this time of year, some storms may develop off the dryline in the afternoon and early evenings, although instability will be lacking both days for more organized storms. Regardless, lightning and gusty winds will always remain a threat, so if you have outdoor plans, prepare to take shelter indoors if thunderstorms do develop. Temperatures through Thursday look to be warm in the 80s to low 90s with a thermal ridge axis setting up across far West Texas and warm southerly winds pushing temperatures above normal for early May. This all changes Friday as the foretold cold front pushes down on the heels of the upper level trough, and some places may see highs fall to the 70s Friday and through the weekend. Depending on where the front stalls up, additional rounds of showers/storms will be possible through the weekend. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR continues with light winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 54 88 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 52 86 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 59 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 56 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 52 77 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 49 84 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 44 83 47 88 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 54 88 62 91 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 56 87 63 92 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 52 89 59 95 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...29