535
FXUS66 KMFR 051202
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
502 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

.DISCUSSION...Radar imagery is showing showers along and east of
the Cascades that appear to be almost stationary. Meanwhile, a few
isolated showers are moving across portions of the west side. This
is part of a low pressure system that is beginning to meander
across southern Oregon and northern California today. Snow levels
will be relatively low, around 3500 feet or so; but with the
showery nature of precipitation today, do not expect a lot of
impacts due to snow, especially with it being May. These showers
will begin to dissipate later this evening and tonight as the low
pushes eastward away from the area and a brief break is expected.

Additionally, we are tracking the potential for freezing
temperatures west of the Cascades, especially for the Scott and
Shasta Valleys in Siskiyou County. An 80 to 90 percent chance for
temperatures at or lower than 32 degrees is expected through 8 AM
this morning and a freeze warning remains in effect. Meanwhile, a
70 percent chance for freezing temperatures is expected once again
Sunday night into Monday morning despite temperatures being a
little warmer. For West Side Valleys in Oregon, the chances for
reaching freezing temperatures are lower--about 35% in the
southern Illinois and Applegate Valleys--this morning, and those
chances will further decrease again tonight as temperatures are
supposed to be a little warmer.

On Monday, another disturbance will push through the area, keeping
moderate temperatures and modest shower chances once again. A few
embedded thunderstorms may be possible as well. However, with the
weak nature of this impulse and the bulk of precipitation
occurring in showers should preclude any significant impacts due
to snowfall.

Once the impulse leaves the area, the weather pattern will change
as a ridge builds into the area. This will allow southern Oregon
and northern California to warm up and dry out. This ridge is
likely to linger through the extended forecast. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs...Worst conditions today will be near the
Cascades north of Highway 140 eastward to Winter Rim, the Warners
and points east of there as low pressure to the east wraps moisture
back across those areas with MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR
visibility in snow showers. Snow showers will mix with rain showers
this afternoon over lower elevations of the East Side. Klamath
Falls will have some gusty west winds (up to 30 kt at times).

West of the Cascades, expect mostly a mix of VFR/MVFR, with MVFR
ceilings/visibilities most likely in heavier showers. Showers can
occur just about anywhere, but are most likely nearest the coast,
inland over the coast ranges, and into the Umpqua Basin. Area wide,
higher terrain will experience obscuration at times. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday, May 5, 2024...Expect scattered
showers today. West to southwest winds will increase ahead of
another front that will move through tonight into Monday with
additional showers. Winds become west-northwest Monday afternoon and
evening followed by building west-northwest swell Monday night into
Tuesday. A thermal trough is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon
with gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas peaking Wednesday,
but persisting into Thursday. The thermal trough will weaken Friday
into next weekend. -Spilde




&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080-081.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for CAZ080-
     081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$