093
FXUS62 KMLB 101752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
152 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Several outflow boundaries were moving through the region with
the inital boundary moving off the Treasure Coast producing a
brief period of gusty NW winds. The second boundary is moving
through the greater Orlando area. Convergence along this second
boundary could be enough to produce isolated showers/storms this
afternoon and thus have kept mention of vicinity thunder in most
terminals through early evening. Cannot rule out an isolated
strong or severe storm, and this is supported by the Storm
Prediction Center which has highlighted northern portions of the
area in a marginal risk. A weak cold front will push through the
state overnight with light NW winds and drier conditions in its
wake. Could be a period of MVFR Ceilings as the boundary moves
through mainly after midnight. VFR conditions are expected on
Saturday with only a few high cirrus clouds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Not much has changed from the previous discussion. An MCS moved
south this morning from North Florida which threatened the
northern portions of the CWA, but the majority of the convection
with near severe winds remained north of the the area and is
currently pushing off the east coast of North Florida. While the
main threat for severe weather isn`t expected until midday, we
are continuing to monitor outflow boundaries within the unstable
air mass which could trigger thunderstorm development a tad
earlier than expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Weakening thunderstorm outflow boundary will continue moving
southeast into the Greater Orlando area over the next few hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
ahead of the boundary. Some MVFR Ceilings will persist across this
area as well before becoming scattered this afternoon. Will keep
vicinity thunder in the MCO terminal through 01z given the
lingering boundary, moisture and instability. Can`t rule out a
strong or severe storm but not confident enough on timing and
exact location of where convection could redevelop this afternoon.
Orlando is on the border of the SPC Slight Risk area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  67  84 /  30   0   0   0
MCO  74  93  67  91 /  30  10   0   0
MLB  73  88  70  85 /  30  10   0   0
VRB  71  91  69  87 /  20  20   0  10
LEE  73  91  67  90 /  30   0   0   0
SFB  73  92  67  90 /  30   0   0   0
ORL  74  93  69  90 /  30  10   0   0
FPR  71  91  68  87 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-
     254-259.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pena
LONG TERM...Forinash
AVIATION...Metz/Price