247
FXUS64 KMOB 150041
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with only a
few high clouds possible. Winds mainly light west to southwesterly
tonight. Winds become more west to northwesterly around 10 to 15
knots by late Wednesday afternoon for most locations, but remaining
more westerly near the coast. DS/12

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast for tonight remains on track. The very marginal threat for
a strong storm over interior Alabama to the east of I-65 has ended
and no convective threats are expected through Wednesday. There
may be a few showers (possibly a thunderstorm or two) along and
east of a weak boundary that continues to stretch across that
area through mid evening, but if those do occur over the next few
hours (which isn`t for certain at all), no hazardous impacts are
expected. By late evening through Wednesday no precipitation is
expected.

The previous afternoon forecast discussion talked about the
potential for severe weather again later this week, primarily late
Thursday night into Friday. We would add that in addition to a
possible severe threat, that there will also be a good potential
for heavy rainfall and potential flooding (especially into Friday).
Portions of the region have received only 7 inches of rain over
the past 24 hours, and we will only get a day or two (at most) to
dry out before the next potentially heavy round of rainfall. WPC
has our entire area outlooked with a SLIGHT chance of excessive
rainfall Friday into Friday night, and with some models indicating
the possibility of another 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over portions
of the forecast area, we will have to be monitoring for possible
flooding concerns going into the weekend. Several area rivers have
gone into minor flood as a result of the recent heavy rainfall,
and additional rises of these rivers, and others, is possible.

One last note: the Small Craft Advisory that was in effect for the
offshore portions of the Gulf zones has been allowed to expire,
but a HIGH rip current risk continues along area beaches through
Wednesday afternoon.

DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley
progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East
Coast through Wednesday night. An associated surface low currently
located near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence progresses to
near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and in the process brings a weak cold
front through the forecast area tonight. Ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary, a modest zone of low level convergence oriented
roughly along the I-65 corridor will combine with the frontal
boundary to produce isolated to potentially scattered convective
development during the remainder of the afternoon, with the best
potential mainly along the I-65 corridor. The convection diminishes
this evening with dry conditions then following for the overnight
hours through Wednesday night. MLCAPE values for the rest of this
afternoon into the early evening hours look to be mostly 1500-2500
J/kg, which along with deep layer shear values near 45 knots could
allow for a few storms to possibly become severe. The best potential
for this to occur is over much of southwest and south central
Alabama, including the western Florida panhandle, where a Marginal
Risk of severe storms exists. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s
inland to near 70 at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
mid to upper 80s, then lows Wednesday night range from around 60
well inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast. A high risk of
rip currents continues through Wednesday, then a moderate risk
follows for Wednesday night. /29

LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The pattern will become active again after a brief break on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. An elongated mid and upper level
low pressure system currently positioned over the Pacific to the
west of southern California will be our next system to potentially
bring high impact weather along the northern Gulf Coast. This
feature is expected to quickly translate eastward across the
southern tier of the U.S. over the next few days and be located
over the Southern Plains by Friday. This is supported by the
latest ensemble model suites. Much of the model guidance is also
suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject
across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching
mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust
signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be
a surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north
central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the
air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by
Thursday night. In addition, the lifting warm front should be
aided by a strengthening low level jet which should be spreading
across the warm front. As low level winds become enhanced in
association with the lead shortwave which interacts with
increasing instability, storms are expected to form initially
along and north of the boundary. A few of these storms may become
severe but should be initially elevated in nature. With time
towards Friday morning, storms may become increasingly surface
based. This would only help to increase the overall severe weather
potential into Friday morning.

There may tend to be a break in convective activity later Friday
before the primary forcing associated with the main mid/upper
level trough overspreads the region Friday night into Saturday
morning. This should support another round of storms, some
potentially severe, during this time period. There will be some
uncertainty with respect to the overall instability available for
newly developing convection overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will hinge on mesoscale processes associated with
the Thursday night into Friday morning convection. The question,
as was the case with our latest past event, is whether the first
round of storms will disrupt the instability that will be
available for the Friday night into Saturday morning convective
system. These details will not be known until we get closer to the
event and begin to see the eventual evolution of storms associated
with the lead shortwave. Either way, conditions appear to be
increasingly favorable for some severe weather potential during
the end of this week with details to still be worked out over the
coming forecast cycles.

Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough
remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the
area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the
convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not
the air mass can recover. Another reinforcing northern stream
shortwave trough digs into the region on Sunday and pushes a cold
front across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop in association with the cold frontal passage on Sunday.

Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf
Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather
along with increasingly hot temperatures. /JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Will have a Small Craft Advisory continue until 5 pm for the 20-60
nm portion to allow for southwesterly winds to subside a bit more.
No concerns are otherwise expected through Thursday night. An
onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then
diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and becomes west to
northwest. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely become
necessary from late Friday night into Saturday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  87  64  88  68  82  70  85 /  10   0   0   0  30  80  60  50
Pensacola   70  87  67  86  72  82  75  83 /  20   0   0   0  20  70  60  60
Destin      72  84  68  85  73  82  76  83 /  20   0   0   0  20  60  60  70
Evergreen   64  87  61  89  66  82  68  83 /  40   0   0   0  30  80  70  60
Waynesboro  61  85  60  88  65  80  67  84 /  10   0   0   0  50  90  60  50
Camden      62  84  60  86  66  80  67  83 /  30   0   0   0  40  80  70  50
Crestview   65  88  62  91  66  84  70  84 /  20   0   0   0  20  70  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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