529
FXUS64 KMOB 021200
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Widespread low ceilings and fog over much of the region early this
morning, with IFR to VLIFR ceilings/visibilities at some
locations. Reduced visibility and ceilings will persist in some
scattered locations until mid morning before mixing out by 9 AM,
with VFR conditions thereafter through this evening. Winds light
and variable early this morning, becoming more southeasterly by
late morning, then southerly late this afternoon and tonight.
Some IFR conditions (or lower at times) could be possible again
tonight with patchy fog developing, but increased high clouds
could potentially limit fog development overnight. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Dense fog has developed across much of the area again this
morning, and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the
entire forecast area until 9 AM CDT.  Current observations
indicate many locations are down to around 1/4 mile visibility
or less and Nighttime Microphysics satellite curve shows low
clouds and fog covering the southern 2/3 of the forecast area.
There are some high cirrus clouds that are beginning to stream
east across the region however, and this could eventually begin
to limit fog potential before the Advisory expiration time in
some location. Motorists should be prepared for dense fog in
some locations on their morning commute. Since near shore marine
waters have warmed considerably over the past few weeks, marine fog
is not expected to be an issue this morning.

Otherwise, not much change from previous forecast through Friday.
Subtle upper ridging over the area today will shift slightly
east of the area through Friday, resulting in a nearly zonal or
west-southwest upper flow over the region. A series of weak upper
level shortwaves will move east across our area in this flow aloft
today through Friday. At the surface, ridging will extend west
across the area as surface high pressure remains centered off the
southeast Atlantic coast. With this, low level moisture will
increase across the forecast area, especially over the western
half which will be more on the western periphery of the surface
ridge. By Friday, PWATS over our western zones increase to around
1.60 inches. This better moisture (especially over the west)
combined with daytime heating and the weak shortwave support aloft,
will result in isolated to scattered showers, and a few
thunderstorms as well, over our western zones today and Friday. This
afternoon we are only looking at about a 20 percent PoP, but on
Friday afternoon PoPs should be a little higher (30 percent or so)
over our far west and northwestern zones. We will probably see
at least some fog across the region again tonight, but it
appears that there may be more mid and high cloud cover over
the area tonight as well, which may act to limit widespread
dense fog tonight. We will continue to monitor trends for this.

Daytime temps will continue to range from the mid to upper 80s
inland to the low to mid 80s coastal both today and Friday. Lows
tonight mainly in the mid 60s inland and upper 60s coastal (with a
few lower 70s possible along the immediate coast and barrier
islands). DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A series of weak shortwaves is expected to pass overhead through
much of the period. As these approach and pass by, winds aloft
will generally remain zonal to northwesterly. For this weekend,
strong daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from
these shortwaves, should allow for isolated to scattered showers
and storms to develop primarily over interior areas during the
afternoon and evening hours. Weak shear in place would help to
support pulse- type convection, typical of what we see during a
general summertime pattern. With that being said, modeled
soundings do suggest that there might be some drier air located
above the 700mb layer, leading to DCAPE values of around 800-1200
J/kg. Therefore, although the overall severe risk is very low,
cannot rule out one or two stronger storms, mainly as a result
from outflow and sea breeze collisions, that would be capable of
producing gusty winds/small hail.

By Monday, upper ridging begins to build over the Gulf. Although the
train of weak shortwaves continue to pass nearby, subsidence from
the building ridge should keep rain chances very low through the
remainder of the period. As the ridge builds, very warm, summer-like
temperatures are expected across the region as we get into the
middle of next week. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s
through Monday, increasing to the upper 80s to low 90s by Tuesday
and Wednesday. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s
inland to the low 70s along the coast. The rip current risk
increases to a Moderate Risk on Saturday and remains moderate through
early next week. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Could be some areas of fog over bays, sounds and near
shore waters this morning. Otherwise winds will mainly be light
onshore through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as
surface high pressure continues to ridge into the southeast states
and the northern Gulf from the east. Slightly higher winds (up to 15
knots at times) will be possible each afternoon near the coast in
association with an enhanced seas breeze circulation. No significant
hazardous are expected for small craft through the period. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  68  84  67  85  67  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  10  10   0
Pensacola   81  69  82  69  84  68  84  70 /   0  10   0  10  10   0  10   0
Destin      80  68  81  70  82  69  83  71 /   0  10   0   0  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   88  65  88  65  88  64  89  65 /  10  10  10  20  30  20  10  10
Waynesboro  88  66  84  64  88  64  88  66 /  10  20  30  30  30  10  20  10
Camden      88  65  85  64  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  20  30  30  20  20  10
Crestview   88  64  88  64  88  62  89  65 /   0   0   0  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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