069
FNUS73 KMPX 061240
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Soo Line East...US FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Soo Line East burn, Breezy southeast winds develop by late
morning, with occasional winds gusts over 35 mph possible.
Increasing humidity with the southeast flow will keep RH values
fairly high however, with min values staying at or above 40%.
Sustained winds will stay in the 20 to 25 mph range with
transport 25 to 30 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 16 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 16 to 20
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /40900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /116000 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 29 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  62  65  67  68  70  70  70  69  68  64  63
RH..............67  56  48  45  42  39  41  42  44  43  48  48
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..16  17  18  18  18  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
20 FT wind gust.24  26  28  28  28  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.7 1.5 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.22  26  26  26  28  28  29  28  29  23  22  22
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 20 to 23 mph with gusts to
                    around 35 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms overnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (93400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (16100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 29 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    south 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 24 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 14 to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Robert Bengson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413246.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert_bengson@fws.gov