239
FNUS73 KMPX 051320
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Swan Lake Duck Lake...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
820 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION... For Swan Lake/Duck Lake, Light & calm winds at ignition
become southerly at 5-9mph by noon. Transport winds will be SSW at 6-8mph
becoming more southerly by noon at 7-10mph. RH values will drop below
40% this afternoon as temperatures warm quickly with mostly clear skies
forecast throughout the day.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........49 at ignition...Max 69.
RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 3 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph late in the morning, then
                    shifting to the south 7 to 8 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /3400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /59000 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 8 mph shifting to the south 8 to
                    12 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  56  60  62  64  66  67  67  68  67  66  62
RH..............77  59  51  46  40  36  34  34  34  36  38  46
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   9   10  10  13  13  13  13  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 2.2 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 2.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   7   8   8   8   9   10  12  12  12  8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Braidey Johnson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413189.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL braidey.johnson@state.mn.us