178
FXUS63 KOAX 280722
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
222 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday, with the potential
  for a few brief, weak tornadoes.

- Another round of showers and storms possible
  Tuesday/Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today through Monday...

More robust storm development over parts of Kansas and Missouri
effectively blocked stronger storms from developing over parts of
the forecast area Saturday. Overnight lows dipped into the 50s,
with scattered showers moving into eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the day
today, as a surface low moves across the forecast area. There is a
slight chance (5-15%) for a few isolated storms to develop ahead of
the incoming dry line, and potentially produce hail up to the size
of quarters, gusty winds, and perhaps a couple of weak tornadoes.
While uncertainty in this scenario is fairly high, given the
extensive cloud cover and stronger convection to our southeast, the
best chance looks to be over far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa, from around noon to 6 PM.

Lingering showers and storms look to clear the forecast area by
midnight tonight, with dry conditions prevailing through Monday.
Highs today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s
for the majority of the region.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances return by mid week, with a cold front swinging
through the Central Plains on Tuesday, followed by a warm front
lifting back through the region ahead of the next surface low,
Wednesday. While the details regarding timing and location remain
unclear at this time, there will be the chance for showers and
storms, a few of which could be strong to severe.

Off and on precipitation chances continue through the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and low 70s each
day, with Tuesday looking to be the only outlier, as highs could
reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Models continue to struggle with cloud cover and precipitation
the next 24 hours. As such there is more uncertainty than usual
for this TAF issuance.

In general, IFR ceilings are expected to build into all TAF
sites with periodic dips into LIFR. The two most likely places
for this is KLNK and KOFK, and as such have included TEMPO
groups. Rain chances continue to diminish tonight, so have opted
to leave rain out of the start of the TAF period. Patchy
drizzle may develop across portions of northeast Nebraska (KOFK)
between 06Z and 12Z, periodically bringing visibilities down to
3 to 5 miles. The coverage is too low and uncertainty too high
to include at TAFs at this time, but the potential is still
there (20 to 40% chance). Thunderstorm chances return to far
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa (KOMA) tomorrow after 17Z.
Will monitor for amendment to include a TEMPO group for thunder
overnight tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Darrah