Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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465 FXUS64 KOHX 300028 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 728 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Showers with isolated thunderstorms had spread into our far western counties this evening. These showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder will spread across the entire Mid State through the night with soaking rainfall, mostly light to moderate intensity, but a few brief heavy downpours possible. Total rainfall amounts near 1 inch will be common, but some areas could have more than 1.5". Amounts will trend downward for the Plateau with mostly less than 1 inch. No severe wx is expected overnight. Most of Tuesday`s rainfall will occur east of I-65 and mainly in the morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Pretty nice day out there. Plenty of sun, temps in the 70s, creeping towards 80 for many. However, it will all go downhill from here. Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon ahead of next weather maker due into Middle TN this evening. Models have been very consistent regarding this system. As storms move into the area, we`ll be losing the heating of the day (sub-1000 J/Kg CAPE), lapse rates get worse and shear drops off. This continues to spell general thunderstorms with this system. Is there the potential for a gust to 40 mph with any storm? Sure, but no severe weather is expected. Rainfall still looks healthy between tonight and tomorrow. I think 1 to 2 inches is still possible with a few pockets getting a touch more with the heavier convection. Some localized flooding issues will be possible, but nothing to write home about. Rain chances fall off pretty dramatically by noon tomorrow, with everybody becoming rain-free before sunset tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 High pressure builds into the region pretty quickly on Wednesday and this will set the stage for some of our warmest temperatures of the year so far. Thursday still looks like the warmest and latest NBM probs show the chance of getting to 90 degrees at about 70% for BNA. With dew points in the upper 50s, it won`t quite feel like summer, but close. Remember, if we get to 90 at BNA on Thursday, it`ll be the first time since 1901. It still looks like Thursday night for the arrival of our next weather system. Models have been fairly consistent with this, as well. This should lead to periods of showers and storms throughout the day Friday and Friday night with activity getting out of here Saturday morning. Forecast soundings still look pretty benign, so no severe weather is expected at this time. Even if we do see a break Saturday afternoon and Sunday, there looks like a good chance of more rain moving in Sunday night or Monday. With this many chances for rain, it matches up well the above-normal precip forecast from CPC through the next 10 days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 SHRA/VCTS will move across airports this TAF period with MVFR/IFR cigs/vis anticipated. Rain will move away from airports Tuesday morning with a return to VFR conditions by late morning/afternoon. Light south to southwest winds tonight will veer to west/northwest on Tuesday with a weak fropa. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 79 57 85 / 100 50 0 0 Clarksville 61 79 55 85 / 100 30 0 0 Crossville 59 69 53 78 / 100 90 20 0 Columbia 62 79 55 84 / 100 40 0 0 Cookeville 61 70 55 79 / 100 80 10 0 Jamestown 59 69 53 79 / 100 90 20 0 Lawrenceburg 62 76 55 83 / 100 50 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 77 53 83 / 100 60 0 0 Waverly 61 79 55 85 / 100 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Shamburger