915
FXUS64 KOHX 291649
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1149 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Pretty nice day out there. Plenty of sun, temps in the 70s, creeping
towards 80 for many. However, it will all go downhill from here.
Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon ahead of next weather
maker due into Middle TN this evening. Models have been very
consistent regarding this system. As storms move into the area,
we`ll be losing the heating of the day (sub-1000 J/Kg CAPE), lapse
rates get worse and shear drops off. This continues to spell general
thunderstorms with this system. Is there the potential for a gust to
40 mph with any storm? Sure, but no severe weather is expected.
Rainfall still looks healthy between tonight and tomorrow. I think 1
to 2 inches is still possible with a few pockets getting a touch
more with the heavier convection. Some localized flooding issues
will be possible, but nothing to write home about. Rain chances fall
off pretty dramatically by noon tomorrow, with everybody becoming
rain-free before sunset tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure builds into the region pretty quickly on Wednesday and
this will set the stage for some of our warmest temperatures of the
year so far. Thursday still looks like the warmest and latest NBM
probs show the chance of getting to 90 degrees at about 70% for BNA.
With dew points in the upper 50s, it won`t quite feel like summer,
but close. Remember, if we get to 90 at BNA on Thursday, it`ll be
the first time since 1901.

It still looks like Thursday night for the arrival of our next
weather system. Models have been fairly consistent with this, as
well. This should lead to periods of showers and storms throughout
the day Friday and Friday night with activity getting out of here
Saturday morning. Forecast soundings still look pretty benign, so no
severe weather is expected at this time. Even if we do see a break
Saturday afternoon and Sunday, there looks like a good chance of
more rain moving in Sunday night or Monday. With this many chances
for rain, it matches up well the above-normal precip forecast
from CPC through the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Monday afternoon. Showers and
possibly some storms will begin to impact the CKV/BNA/MQY from
west to east late Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
Visibilities could drop to MVFR at times during heavy rain. Cigs
will deteriorate to MVFR after 00z at CKV and after 03z and
BNA/MQY. CSV and SRB should remain VFR through the taf period.
Winds will continue to be southerly for the forecast generally
between 5-10 kts. Gusts around 20 kts are expected during the
daylight hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  63  79  57 /  40 100  50   0
Clarksville    78  61  79  55 /  80 100  30   0
Crossville     78  59  69  53 /  10  90  90  20
Columbia       82  62  79  55 /  30 100  40   0
Cookeville     80  61  70  55 /  10 100  80  10
Jamestown      79  59  69  53 /  10  90  90  20
Lawrenceburg   81  62  76  55 /  30 100  50   0
Murfreesboro   83  62  77  53 /  20 100  60   0
Waverly        80  61  79  55 /  70 100  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens