179
FXUS64 KOUN 032348
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the Texas South Plains later this afternoon. The remnants
of this activity--especially any left splits--may affect western
north Texas this evening before dissipating. However, with the
trend of initiation farther to the southwest, it appears the
chance of severe weather will be spatiotemporally limited. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas
and consolidate into a complex with the remnants moving into
northern Oklahoma late tonight into Saturday morning. These
thunderstorms will have a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy
rainfall, which should weaken with southward extent.

By Saturday afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon hours along the boundary from the morning
thunderstorms across Oklahoma. In addition, a complex of
thunderstorms will likely develop across the Texas panhandle and
western north Texas that will move eastward across at least the
southern half of the area during the overnight hours. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and flooding will be the potential hazards
with the primary hazard becoming flooding.

Given the recent heavy rainfall, we issued a Flood Watch from 7
PM tonight through 1 PM Sunday for all locations except northwest
into west central Oklahoma (where rainfall amounts have been
lighter the last week). Additional heavy rainfall will result in a
risk of flooding through Sunday morning.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Monday: There is the potential for a significant severe weather
event Monday afternoon and evening. A negatively tilted trough
will eject into the Plains on Monday with a moist, highly sheared,
and unstable air mass ahead of a dryline. The synoptic-scale
pattern is a classic severe weather outbreak across the Plains
with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

While there is some variation on the mesoscale details among
deterministic models and ensemble members (e.g., character of the
mid/upper level trough, location of the dryline, and the
magnitude of capping) that will affect the location and magnitude
the severe weather risk, it is important to stay weather aware on
Monday as the worst case scenario (i.e., How bad could it be?)
for the event is quite high with the potential for significant
supercells.

Tuesday: As the mid-level trough lifts to the northeast, the
trailing dryline may stall across east central into southeast
Oklahoma. While the dryline will be somewhat diffuse, there is a
low chance thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon with a
modest mid-level flow persisting across the Southern Plains.

Wednesday: Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma with the
dryline still in place.

Thursday: There may finally be a lull in the risk for severe
weather with a cold front moving through the area with a drier air
mass advecting southward into the area.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions expected until FROPA tonight and early tomorrow,
with MVFR dominant thereafter. TSRA possible over/near KSPS this
evening and then spreading into northern Oklahoma after 06Z. Will
include PROB30 into central Oklahoma tomorrow morning as weak cold
front moves from northwest to southeast over the region and ushers
in northerly winds. TSRA chances will increase northern Texas and
southeast half of Oklahoma toward end and beyond this forecast
cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  76  60  72 /  30  70  80  80
Hobart OK         59  74  57  74 /  40  70  90  60
Wichita Falls TX  63  79  62  76 /  30  50  90  60
Gage OK           52  69  51  75 /  80  50  60  40
Ponca City OK     61  73  56  71 /  60  70  60  70
Durant OK         64  79  64  77 /  20  40  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11