Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
186 FXUS63 KPAH 302309 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 609 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A trend of above normal temperatures sets in, peaking Wednesday and Thursday, with highs into the upper 80s. For most locations, that`ll be just shy of records near 90 to begin the month of May. - Daily rain chances resume Thursday. They`ll peak Friday and again late this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard from any storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 High pressure provides clear skies and helps draw in drier dew points that bottom into the 50s overnight. As the high shifts eastward, southerly return flow quickly reverses course for dew points, returning them into the lower 60s along with our warmup. Near record highs in the upper 80s are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, and here is the record information for our climo sites both days: May1 May2 Norm-Hi Fcst-Hi Wed/Thu PAH 90/1951 90/2012 75 87/89 EVV 90/1951 91/1959 73 83/87 CGI 87/2012 89/2012 74 86/87 POF 93/1901 91/1952 74 86/87 MDH 91/1901 91/1901 73 83/87 There may be a glancing blow/low pops for warm advection showers for portions of the area late tonight-early tmrw, and again tmrw pm/evening with diurnal destabilization. Otherwise, it will largely be dry until broader/synoptic scale pops move in from the west beginning Thursday. These pops will peak Friday before diminishing early this weekend, mirroring their parent system`s lift and spreading and ultimately diminishing in similarly tracking west-to-east fashion. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard as WPC paints a marginal risk for excessive rainfall accompanying that system`s pass. A relative early weekend pops pause is quickly followed by continued daily chances Saturday night thru Monday. The parent synoptic features of these chances remain north and west of our area for their duration, so at this writing, it looks more like your routine/daily storm chances with locally heavy rain hazard vs anything widespread severe variety. There is no discernable air mass change so the warm temp regime continues with mostly 80s for highs this weekend thru early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Mixing down of drier air this afternoon should likely hinder much in the way of fog development tonight despite near calm winds and mainly clear skies. A very small chance for a shower/storm exists late tonight into early morning near KMVN. Additional isolated convection can`t be ruled out tomorrow afternoon and evening, but chances are quite low. Winds will largely be out of the southwest tomorrow aob 10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...SP