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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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817 FXUS61 KRLX 040759 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 359 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will continue to traverse the area early this morning, then activity is expected to continue throughout the day as a shortwave passes over the area. Coverage of showers and storms should peak during the afternoon and evening hours when instability will be the greatest. While storm activity may lessen again overnight, chances for showers are expected to linger through the end of the near term period. Precipitation amounts for today and tonight should be under an inch for much of the area, though pockets of higher amounts will be possible due to locally heavy rain in showers and storms today. Widespread flooding is not expected; however, some localized issues aren`t out of the question in poor drainage areas or if higher amounts fall over locations that experienced heavy rain yesterday. Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to low 70s along the mountains. Lows for tonight should then be in the 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Isolated to scattered storms forming ahead of a cold front may grow to be strong to severe Sunday afternoon. * Heavy downpours remain a good possibility within showers and storms, leading to local flooding concerns. Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain entrenched within the short term period. For Sunday, continuing warm and humid conditions will receive support from an approaching cold front to sprout convection during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Storms are progged to form out ahead of the boundary, primarily in southeast Ohio, but as it outruns the front and enters a less unstable airmass east of the Ohio River, activity is expected to weaken. Might see a few instances of strong wind gusts where convection has the best chance of organization. Otherwise, will continue to monitor diminishing flash flood guidance as showers and storms glide over areas that have already received measurable rainfall the past few days. The cold front takes residency along the lower Ohio Valley late in the weekend into the start of the new work week. Up aloft, weak ridging becomes nudged off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the period as an upper level trough propagates through the Intermountain West. Previous model runs hinting at a brief reprieve in activity late Sunday night may still be onto something for early Monday morning as mainly diurnally driven activity wanes, but should return in earnest on Monday. Additional support from a southern stream system riding up along the stalled front will yield a south to north gradient of POPs, with the theme of afternoon convection prevailing once more. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Remaining active through the work week in response to waves of disturbances migrating in from the west. * Daily chances of showers and storms remain each day this week, with possibility of stronger storms arriving around midweek. * Increased chances of localized flooding as areas receive multiple rounds of rainfall. Unsettled weather continues to rule the roost through the work week as shortwave energy rides up along the stalled frontal boundary. Enough instability each day will support afternoon thunderstorm development, and initially remaining fairly diurnally driven that activity wanes during the overnight period. However, heading into midweek, a strong disturbance cycling over the Upper Midwest will drag in greater support under the guise of low level southwesterly flow inflicting increased moisture and temperatures. This would help to sustain convection further into the overnight period and may also assist in stronger convective trends during peak heating hours. QPF values through the course of the week will be heavily dependent on radar trends each day, with growing potential for localized flooding as soil conditions are tested with multi-day shower and storm chances. A cold front by the second half of the work week will attempt to cut off the daily warm and muggy weather. However, showers and perhaps thunderstorm develop remains intact for the weekend in response to additional shortwave support crossing over the area. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday... Isolated to scattered showers continue to move across the area, bringing periodic restrictions to visibility early this morning. Additional CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in low stratus and some areas of fog developing this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread to most locations during the day as a passing disturbance brings more showers and storms across the area. A temporary improvement could occur this afternoon, then ceilings should lower again beyond 00Z. Visibilities will also continue to be impaired today into tonight during any heavier showers or storms. Calm to light and variable flow will persist through the early morning. Flow becomes southerly to southeasterly during the day, with light sustained winds and 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary from the forecast this morning. Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JLB