Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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691 FXUS63 KSGF 092300 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 600 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be near normal today and Saturday with slightly below normal temperatures on Friday. - Drier conditions into the start of the weekend. - Rain potential returns Sunday Night and continues off and on early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows an elongated upper level trough stretching from the Great Lakes back west into the central Plains and then back towards Utah and Colorado. The low level flow has shifted to the northwest with much cooler drier air in the area with dews in the 40s. Skies were partly cloudy and temps were in the middle 70s. Through Tonight: A piece of shortwave energy will drop south into eastern Missouri tonight and will bring some clouds to the eastern half of the area. There could be enough moisture for a sprinkle near Rolla however the chances are less than 10 percent and most locations will remain dry. A cool night is in store with lows around 50. Friday: Northerly flow continues and HREF guidance suggests a few more clouds than today along with cooler 850mb temps (5-6C). This looks to keep highs cooler with NBM suggesting most locations in the lower 70s. A few locations across central Missouri may struggle to reach 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Saturday through Monday: High pressure looks to slide southwest of the area on Saturday with mostly clear skies expected. 850mb temps climb slightly however near average highs in the middle 70s are likely. Upper level energy across the Rockies will slowly move east Sunday. The lift doesn`t really arrive until Sunday evening therefore most if not all of the daytime hours Sunday look dry at this time. Low level flow does turn southerly and moisture will be increasing with rain chances now in the 60-80 percent range Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday is looking cooler and wet with highs around 70 if clouds remain thick all day. NBM prob thunder values of 30 to 50 percent indicate thunderstorms however not seeing enough instability for severe storms at this time. Tuesday through Wednesday: Ensemble model variance exists however it does appear some rain chances linger into Tuesday as additional energy drops out of the north. Highest uncertainty is with Wednesday as some guidance keeps us dry with others returning precip back to the area. This unsettled pattern looks to continue through mid week with on and off rain chances. Not a big signal for widespread hazardous weather however with near average temps. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 High confidence in VFR flight conditions through the TAF period. A few scattered high level clouds move through the area this evening before clearing. Additional scattered high level clouds on Friday. Winds light at 5 to 10 knots out of the northwest through tonight, becoming more northerly on Friday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Perez