027
FXUS64 KTSA 021309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
809 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MCV left over from last night`s convection was spinning over NE OK
this morning. Another MCV was spinning over far SE OK and NE TX.
Some gusty winds continue on the north side of the MCV for a while
longer before fading. Thunder coverage has faded early this
morning due to weak instability, but as the MCVs lift northeast
and we begin to destabilize, thunder coverage may gradually
increase to the east of these systems over W AR and far E OK. By
this afternoon, an approaching front from the NW will bring
increased shower and storm coverage to the north and west of
Tulsa, with this activity spreading east and south into the
evening. The environment ahead of the front in our area will not
be overly favorable for severe storm development, but some
isolated pulse severe is possible.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MCS is beginning to enter eastern Oklahoma early this morning, and
will continue to advance east during the morning hours with a
gradual weakening trend. Gusty winds along the northern edge of
the complex have necessitated a wind advisory for Osage and Pawnee
counties until 7 am. The expectation is that this early day
complex will largely inhibit convective redevelopment through
this afternoon in much of the area. The exception may be the far
northwest part of the forecast area, so afternoon pops will be
highest in this area. This area will also see the greatest chance
for a marginally severe storm late this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Convective chances may increase this evening across much of the
area as a cold front moves through, but considerable uncertainty
exists regarding convective coverage and intensity. Friday will
see a relative minimum in rain chances, but shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase again by late Friday night
through the weekend as another frontal boundary moves across the
area.

A potent upper level storm system will move into the central or
northern Plains early next week continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances, but the overall convective potential remains
unclear at this point as the system may lift out too far to the
north to break a capping inversion that will likely develop over
our area Monday. With the upper system lifting out so far to the
north, the surface boundary may also hang up to our west, and with
continued southwest flow next week, at least low convective
chances may linger into at least midweek. For now have stuck with
the NBM pops for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for
all Oklahoma TAF sites this morning. There is a smaller risk of
showers for the Arkansas TAF sites as well, but for now it is too
low to mention in the TAFs. For any locations that do receive a
storm, bring heavy rain, lower CIGs down to 2500 feet, and gusty
erratic winds would be possible.

CAM guidance is depicting strong disagreement on the remainder of
the day, but the most likely outcome appears to be a maintenance
of CIGS in the 3-5 kft layer for much of the afternoon with just a
few isolated showers. Then in the late afternoon showers and
storms will move in from the west. Overnight CIGs will lower down
to 1-2 kft as any lingering showers end.

Winds today will be mostly out of the south until this evening
when northerly flow will settle in behind a frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  80  61 /  60  50  10  40
FSM   76  64  82  63 /  60  50  30  20
MLC   77  62  81  62 /  40  50  20  30
BVO   76  57  79  57 /  60  50  10  40
FYV   76  59  78  58 /  70  50  20  20
BYV   76  59  78  59 /  70  50  20  20
MKO   76  61  80  61 /  40  50  20  30
MIO   75  59  78  60 /  50  50  10  30
F10   76  61  79  61 /  50  50  20  30
HHW   75  63  81  63 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06