821
FXUS64 KTSA 270850
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
350 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1.) Mostly quiet weather for the forecast area through noon today,
with just a few showers and storms for SE OK and NW AR.

2.) The severe weather threat will ramp up from west to east during
the afternoon, continuing into the overnight hours and transitioning
into more of a flood threat with time.

3.) All modes of severe weather will be possible, including
tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall
leading to flooding.

Details:

For the first part of the day Saturday, a few showers and
isolated storms may occur at times for portions of southeast OK
and northwest AR, but overall conditions are expected to be breezy
but otherwise quiet.

By early afternoon CAMs show a full recovery from any convective
effects of yesterday or this morning, with plentiful moisture and
warm temperatures resulting in deep and strong instability. As
the upper level trough nudges into the area during the afternoon
and the low level jet begins ramping up, speed and directional
shear will increase, bowing out hodographs and greatly increasing
effective wind shear. On paper, all of the ingredients are in
place to support a significant severe weather outbreak, including
strong long track tornadoes, very large hail, and powerful
damaging wind gusts. The SPC and WPC both have moderate risk
outlooks over the area for severe weather and excessive rainfall,
respectively. As always, its the details that matter, and having
these conditions in place does not guarantee significant severe
weather will actually develop. But it does mean that it would be
prudent to be prepared for the potential.

One consideration for today will be a cluster of storms that is
expected to form over northwest Texas tonight. It should persist
and track into north-central OK during the early afternoon.
Depending on its timing, track, and intensity it could modify the
convective environment for the "main event" that will develop
later in the day. It`s not impossible to imagine a case with more
widespread precipitation and clouds earlier on lessing the
potential of the storms later in the day. Either way, additional
thunderstorm activity will likely form along the dry line in the
mid afternoon to evening hours. These storms will occur as upper
level diffluence increases and an already strong low level jet
further intensifies. Severe weather is likely by this point,
including the potential for all severe hazards. Over time, this
convective activity will translate east, morphing into a linear
feature. As this occurs the threat will primarily shift to wind
and potentially QLCS tornadoes. Additionally, training rainfall
will likely occur, with CAM guidance depicting totals of several
inches for portions of the area, especially in northeast OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Heavy rainfall will gradually shift eastwards overnight and finally
move out of the area later on Sunday. Storm totals should exceed 1"
in all locations, with many areas seeing 2 to locally 4+ inch
totals. Such heavy rainfall will result in localized flash flooding
and river flooding in spots. A Flood Watch is in effect on account
of this threat.

After Sunday, a few lingering storms could still pop up Monday or
Tuesday, but conditions will be mostly quiet with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Another weather system will impact the area
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in some cooling and a return of
showers and thunderstorms. Some severe weather may also occur during
this period, though the potential is expected to be much lower than
what we will be dealing with today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Expect all of the TAF sites to have a period of MVFR cigs and LLWS
tonight into Saturday morning before cigs lift to VFR by midday.
Storm activity should hold off till mid to late afternoon, though
there is a low chance over in W AR for an isolated afternoon
storm and used prob30 mention to cover there. For the NE OK sites,
the latest CAMs suggest storms will begin to affect this area by
around 00Z, and then exit by 04Z with a break expected between
this round and the late night early Sunday morning round, just
beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  78  58 /  70 100  70  10
FSM   81  67  76  62 /  80  70 100  40
MLC   81  64  77  60 /  70  90  90  10
BVO   80  60  78  52 /  70  80  60  10
FYV   78  63  73  57 /  70  80 100  40
BYV   78  63  72  58 /  60  60  90  50
MKO   80  62  76  58 /  60  90  90  10
MIO   80  61  74  56 /  50  90  90  20
F10   79  62  77  58 /  70 100  70  10
HHW   80  64  75  61 /  80  80 100  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
     OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30