826
FXUS64 KTSA 071925
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A frontal boundary that lingers across the higher terrain of southeast
Oklahoma is forecast to surge back to the north overnight as a warm
front with an area of low pressure moving into northern Osage County in
northeast Oklahoma. By 12z Wednesday, the warm front is expected to be
near Highway 412 across E OK into NW AR with a cold front extending from
the surface low back into southwest Oklahoma. There is the potential for
isolated to scattered storms to develop late tonight to the north of the
warm front across northeast Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across
the area. A storm or two could become strong to severe during this time
with large hail the primary concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning
in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. There will continue to be
adequate instability and deep layer shear for these storms to be strong
to severe with large hail the main concern. However, any storms that can
get rooted in the boundary layer will be capable of producing damaging winds
and even a tornado. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day
in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the the remainder of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Any of these that develop during the
afternoon and early evening will have the potential to be severe with all
modes of severe weather possible. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday
evening as the cold front exits the region.

Thursday through Sunday is forecast to be mostly dry with only a few showers/storms
possible across far southeast Oklahoma on Thursday as a storm system grazes the area to
the south. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to prevail. The next chance of
showers and storms arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week as
an upper level low drifts over the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and
through this evening. As a cold front approaches from the
northwest overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning, strong
low-level wind shear will develop over all of the TAF sites,
mostly impacting the terminals between midnight tonight and
sunrise Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
along the cold front as it pushes through the area during the
mid-late morning hours. Guidance indicates MVFR ceilings
developing ahead of the frontal boundary, with VFR conditions
returning for the northeast Oklahoma terminals by or just before
midday behind the cold front. MVFR ceilings, along with
rain/storms will likely linger at MLC and the Arkansas terminals
through the end of the TAF period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  84  54  79 /  20  50  10   0
FSM   63  87  59  83 /  10  50  40  10
MLC   64  86  59  81 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   55  82  49  77 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   59  84  54  79 /  10  60  30  10
BYV   57  83  53  77 /  10  70  30  10
MKO   60  84  54  77 /  10  40  10  10
MIO   57  81  51  75 /  10  50  10   0
F10   61  85  54  77 /  10  30  10  10
HHW   66  85  62  82 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...67