Area Forecast Discussion
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FXZS60 NSTU 030128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
228 PM SST Tue Jun 2 2020

Latest satellite imagery shows a drier air mass to the east moving
into the area through the rest of the short term forecast. The
18Z GFS model run shows a broad area of high pressure to the
south remaining nearly stationary tonight through the beginning of
the long term forecast. With the high pressure in place for the
most part of the forecast, tradewinds with embedded showers will
prevail for the forecast period. This afternoon`s (00Z/03) upper
air profile supports much drier conditions over the territory for
the rest of the week. The high pressure to the south will
eventually relax as it migrates southeast. This will likely
diminish the strength of tradewinds. A low pressure system
embedded within the trough oriented northwest to southeast is
sandwiched between the two high pressures as it continues to move
further southeast. Another stronger high pressure southwest moves
into the area and this will transport tradewinds again over the
area. Very briefly winds will become light and variable between
the transition from the aforementioned high pressure and the
latter high pressure towards the end of the long term forecast.

Therefore, expect trades with embedded showers to prevail through
the weekend before it diminishes to light and variable winds.
Trades will pick up again by the new week.


Combined seas of 7 to 9 feet with 7 to 8 second periods will
remain across the Samoa waters through the end of the week.
However, with the trades remaining over the territory, rough
conditions remain for small crafts through at least Thursday.
PacIOOs Aunu`u buoy reports seas within the 7 to 9 feet range with
very short periods. This data places the surfs in the cautious
criteria. The Wave Watch III model data shows long period swells
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Therefore, the advisory for small
crafts will remain and the advisory for high surfs is cancelled.
Will continue to monitor situations as the week progresses.



A High Surf Advisory is cancelled.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.



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