510
FXUS65 KPSR 080510
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1010 PM MST Tue May 7 2024

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Near normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with
elevated wind speeds expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures will
warm to above normal on Friday with a gradual warming trend expected
through at least the beginning of next week, where afternoon high
temperatures will near tripple digits across portions of the lower
deserts. Dry conditions continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of this afternoon, mid-level water vapor reveals a large scale
trough over western CONUS with the low pressure system, associated
with this trough, moving into the Dakota`s. 850mb analysis reveals a
shortwave trough moving into southeastern California and western
Arizona. This shortwave trough is tightening the pressure gradient
overhead which is leading to some elevated wind gusts this afternoon
that will continue into the early evening. Wind gusts will generally
be around 20-25 mph in the lower deserts with gusts up to 30mph
possible in the high terrain to the north and east of the Phoenix
Metro. This shortwave trough will continue to move southeastward
overnight and bring a weak cold front into the Lower Colorado River
valley. Behind the front, occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph are
possible in portions of southeastern California and far western
Arizona, with gusts up around 40 mph possible along the ridge tops.
Elsewhere, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon
and early evening.

The aforementioned low pressure system will retrograde back towards
the southwest over the next couple of days, which will keep our
afternoon high temperatures near or slightly below normal through
Thursday. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that the low
pressure system will settle to our north by Friday and remain fairly
stationary into the beginning of next week, although it is expected
to gradually weaken. This will allow for afternoon high temperatures
to go back above normal on Friday with a slight warming trend into
the beginning of next week. The lower deserts are expected to see
high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s, with portions of the
lower deserts nearing tripple digits by the start of next week. The
higher terrain areas are forecasted to see high temperatures in the
mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s. Even though our area will be under the
influence of this trough into next week, dry conditions are expected
to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant weather issues will exist through Wednesday night
under clear skies. Forecast confidence is good that the conversion
to the typical overnight easterly wind will occur somewhat later
than usual, while a return to westerlies should settle over the
metro by noon Wednesday. Gusty winds 20-25kt should affect terminals
again Wednesday afternoon before relaxing mid evening Wednesday.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty winds associated with a frontal passage late tonight and
Wednesday morning will be the primary weather issue under clear
skies. Wind directions will favor W/SW tonight before abruptly
shifting to north with fropa late night/early morning. Gusts 30-35kt
may sweep through KBLH around sunrise with a chance of at least
lofted dust immediately behind the front through mid/late morning.
There is around a 20% chance of surface visibilities dropping into
MVFR category with the strongest gusts though confidence and
potential duration is too low to include in this TAF package. Gusts
should be far more limited or absent at KIPL. Wind speeds will
generally weaken through the daylight hours with a loss of
gustiness by sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Wind gusts around
20-25 mph are expected areawide this afternoon and early evening. A
cold front will cause wind gusts of 30-35 mph (and around 40 mph
along the ridgetops) in portions of southeastern California and far
western Arizona tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon.
Elsewhere wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Wind gusts will return to more seasonal
values (afternoon gusts up around 20 mph) areawide for the latter
half of the week. MinRHs, for the rest of this week, will be in the
5-10% range across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across
the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be in the 20-40%
range. Temperatures will be near, or slightly below, normal through
Thursday and return to above normal on Friday and through the
weekend. Dry conditions will persist into next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman