855
FXUS65 KPUB 152007
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
207 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms into this evening, a few may become
  strong to severe across the Plains.

- Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may produce
  localized flash flooding through tonight.

- Continued chances for afternoon showers and weak thunderstorms are
  expected for the high country through the extended.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather expected for
  lower elevations for Friday through Sunday.

- A pattern change arrives early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Currently...showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across
much of southern Colorado early this afternoon.  A few have pulsed
up briefly, and likely produced small hail and locally heavy
rainfall.  Temperatures are nice out there so far, with mid 60s to
mid 70s across much of the Eastern Plains.  Low level flow has
turned northeasterly behind a cold front that passed across the
Plains this morning.

Rest of today and tonight...a weak upper low will continue to slowly
track east across the Desert Southwest through tonight, while a
quick upper shortwave drops across central Colorado.  Moisture
associated with the upper low to the south has led to PWAT values
near 0.75 inches, about 150 percent of normal.  Higher dewpoint air
behind the cold front that passed through this morning has spread
across the Plains, with mid to upper 40 readings.  Mesoanalysis
indicates SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range across the
Plains.  This has allowed showers and thunderstorm develop for this
afternoon across the region.  While shear is marginal at around 35
kts, a couple of storms could become strong to severe with hail near
an inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph.  Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding on burn scars and in
urban areas.  The area across eastern Las Animas and Baca Counties
will see the greatest potential for strong to severe storms.

Elsewhere, stronger storms may be capable of producing half inch
hail and strong wind gusts.  Snow levels will remain high, with
minor accumulations possible above 11 kft through tonight.

Models in good agreement with slow moving storms tracking east this
evening and overnight.  The strong to severe threat should diminish
after sunset, and the loss of daytime instability.  Most shower
activity across the Plains should come to an end overnight.  The
exception will be for areas along the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and Raton Mesa, where showers and thunderstorms look to
continue into Thursday morning.

Thursday...the upper low to the south will continue to track east
into western Texas by tomorrow afternoon.  Wrap around flow will
continue to impact areas along the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and Raton Mesa for the morning hours.  Weak energy in
northwesterly flow aloft will spread across Colorado during the late
morning to early afternoon.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop, initially over the
Mountains, and spread east into the adjacent Plains by mid to late
afternoon.  Drier air behind the departing system should lessen
instability, with gusty outflow winds being the main concern.
Temperatures on Thursday will remain cool, with 60s to low 70s
across much of the region. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Thursday Night Through Sunday..

Models bring the low into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region by
Thursday evening, which could keep some showers and weak
thunderstorm activity over our southern mountains and far southern
plains for Thursday evening as well. As the low continues to push
off to our east, showers and storms look to come to an end by around
midnight or so at the latest. Overnight low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will be seasonably mild. With ridging
building in behind the departing low, daytime highs look to climb
well into the 80s for most of our plains on Friday afternoon, with
many location seeing highs of five to ten degrees above normal for
this time of year. Thunderstorm chances decrease for Friday, though
a few showers and weak storms will still be possible across the high
country, especially for our southern mountains. A trough passes to
our north throughout Saturday, and looks to shove a weak cold front
southward at some point as well. This front doesn`t appear to be
strong enough to have much impact on our expected temperatures. It
doesn`t look to bring any significant precip chances with it either,
especially for our plains, though showers and thunderstorms will
likely increase in coverage over the high country for Saturday.
Temperatures still look to rise into the mid 80s for Saturday
afternoon across our plains, with mid 70s for mountain valleys. Our
flow aloft begins to transition to more southwesterly for Sunday, as
another trough begins to push into the northern Rockies and a low
begins to move toward southern California. This pattern shift will
increase temperatures somewhat across the area, and will also bring
in some breezier winds as well. Daytime highs look to climb into the
low 90s across our far eastern plains for Sunday, with mid to upper
80s for most of the I-25 corridor, and 70s for mountains valleys.
Southwesterly winds gusting to 30mph are expected across lower
elevations on Sunday, with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain.

Monday Onwards..

Models begin to diverge as we head into the beginning of next week,
though it does seem likely that warm, dry and windy weather is
expected for Monday, before a trough passes sometime on Tuesday.
Though there is a lot of disagreement on timing and amplitude of
this trough, the general consensus between ensemble members seems to
keep the wave open, which wouldn`t bode well for precip chances on
the plains. Current thinking is that we`ll see continued chances for
showers and storms over the high country during this period, with
possible critical meteorological fire weather conditions over
portions of our plains for Monday (and possibly Sunday if the system
quickens). Though with recent green-up, it is likely that many zones
will not see any fire weather highlights with this upcoming system,
given that fuels are not conducive for rapid fire spread. Expect
daytime highs to remain above normal for Monday, and to cool several
degrees behind the trough, which would bring highs down closer to
normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Aviation.. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region
through this evening, impacting all three terminals.  Gusty outflow
winds of 30 to near 40 kts will be possible, along with reduced VIS
and CIGS.  KCOS and KPUB will have the highest potential for
thunderstorms through 02-03Z this evening.  Low CIGS are expected
overnight, with improving conditions to VFR on Thursday morning.
Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible
Thursday afternoon. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOZLEY