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000
FXUS65 KPUB 130905
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
205 AM MST Thu Dec 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Dec 13 2018

Updated to allow winter wx advisory to expire, as radar indicates
a fairly rapid decrease in snow coverage over the past hour. Also
canceled wrn edge of high wind warning in Pueblo/El Paso counties,
as winds continue to slowly diminish. Reconfigured expirations for
the remaining portions of the high wind warning, mainly to advance
expiration times as HRRR indicates most locations will be below
high wind thresholds by 18z.

UPDATE Issued at 840 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

Updated to adjust winds and precipitation chances this evening.  Winds
are currently gusting 50 to 55 mph  behind the front and should
continue south across the Plain through morning.  For the most part
precipitation is behaving with minor accumulations on the Palmer
Divide and an inch or two expected over the Raton Mesa area.
Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

...Strong winds tonight with some squally periods of snow possible
mainly along the I-25 corridor...

Currently...

Skies over the lower elevations were mostly clear and temps were
primarily in the 60s. Gap areas were living up to their name-sake as
winds at Pueblo and Walsenburg were quite gusty, while over the rest
of the plains winds were light. Mtn tops were very windy as Monarch
was reporting hurricane force wind gusts (>65 knots).

Surface obs along with sat pix and hi res guidance was showing the
front/pre frontal trough generally extended from the GJT area
northeast to CYS and into the Dakotas. Temps behind the front were
in the 30s and 40s, while in advance of it temps were in the 50s and
60s.

Tonight...

Strong winds are the main concern. Nearly all HRRR runs showing
winds of 45-50 knts tonight across a large majority of the plains.
Front will cross COS region aoa 6 pm and move across PUB at 7 pm. It
will move through the rest of the plains during the remainder of the
evening hours. It appears at this time the strongest winds will
occur during the 04 UTC through 09 UTC time frame across the plains.

As for snow...hi res guidance shows best chance of squally weather
across the COS region from the 7-9 pm time frame, with all the
precip moving out by midnight. some gusty rain/snow showers may
event make it all the way down to Pueblo during the evening hours.

Best chance of some heavier snow will be down in the Spanish
Peaks/Raton Mesa region between 04 and 10 UTC, with the heaviest
accums falling across eastern Las Animas county. 1-2 inches will be
possible with locally heavier amounts.

Due to the winds and snow, issues a winter weather advisory for the
Spanish Peak/Raton Mesa region. Snow is not gonna amount to much,
but it could be locally heavy for a bit and it`s gonna blow around
given the winds.

Over the far eastern plains, dont really see much in the way of
precip; primary threat will be strong winds through the nighttime
hours, with peak gusts to 60 to 65 mph.

For the mtns...wind driven snow will continue along the contdvd this
evening, decreasing after midnight. 2-4" of snow will be possible.
The heaviest snow will occur over the central mtns. Local 2-4
amounts will also be possible over the souther Sangre De Cristo mtns.

Tomorrow...

Winds will slowly subside through the day from Northwest to
southeast. Best chance for the strongest winds to continue will be
over the far southeast plains down along the CO/NM and OK borders,
and have continued the high wind warning through late tomorrow
afternoon over this region.

It should be dry throughout the day tomorrow, although I cannot rule
out a stray shower over the far SE plains early in the day.

Although max temps will be in the 40s tomorrow, it will feel a lot
colder for any folks who must be outside tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

...Quiet December Weather Pattern Setting Up...

Upper high pressure will build in over Colorado Friday resulting in
a period dry and mild weather.  Temperatures should be above average
through the entire extended forecast period with no precipitation
expected.  Having said this, there are a couple of caveats. First,
there is a weak disturbance poised to move through the northern
Rockies on Saturday.  At the present time, this system is forecast
to pass by to the north of Colorado, bringing no precip to southern
Colorado. Confidence is pretty high that this system will not
interfere with the current dry and mild forecast for the weekend. Of
more interest is the pattern evolution for early next week.  Late
Monday through Wednesday, a large, moist low pressure system is
forecast to develop and move east across Arizona and New Mexico,
almost missing Colorado entirely.  However, the current track does
have it moving by pretty close.  Any deviations in the path that
develop between now and early next week could certainly alter the
current dry and mild forecast.  It is December after all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1007 PM MST Wed Dec 12 2018

KALS...a few snow showers are possible across the San Luis Valley
over the next couple of hours. Reduced CIGS and VIS are expected
through the early morning hours. Winds will continue to be breezy
into the early morning hours. A return to VFR conditions is
expected by mid morning.

KCOS and KPUB...strong north winds will continue through the mid
morning hours. Gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible. Light
snowfall will be possible at KCOS with reduced CIGS and VIS
through 08z. Improving conditions are forecast by mid afternoon to
VFR conditions. At KPUB, reduced CIGS are expected through the
early morning hours, with VFR conditions by the afternoon. Mozley


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ094-099.

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ095>098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY