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000
FXUS65 KPUB 192156
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 PM MDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Currently, GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates that healthy closed
upper low is moving across northwestern Kansas this afternoon,
allowing for gusty north winds generally in the 20 to 35 mph range
across eastern locations with a few weak/brief lived showers
favoring higher terrain locations observed.

In addition, Sunday afternoon temperatures over eastern sections
have been running below climatological averages with near to
slightly above climatological average temperatures noted over
western locations.

For tonight, latest computer simulations indicate that the gusty
northerly winds will tend to decrease quickly, especially after 9 PM
this evening allowing for minimum temperatures tonight to drop into
the 50F to 55F range over the I-25 corridor and southeastern
Colorado plains, 40s over the San Luis Valley and 30s over the
higher mountains. Also, any existing isolated showers/thunderstorm
activity should dissipate quickly after sunset.

For Monday, continued low precipitable water(PW) values in
combination with upper ridging building/developing into southern
Colorado will allow for basically dry conditions in combination with
light winds. Also, forecast model soundings support maximum
temperatures on Monday running near to a couple of degrees warmer
than values noted this afternoon over most southern Colorado
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Upper high pressure will begin to weaken and flatten over Colorado
Tuesday, allowing an influx of monsoon moisture to move into the
area.  Forecast models have been showing this for several runs now
so it looks like it will happen.  Shear values increase enough that
we will likely be dealing with some severe weather during the
afternoon and evening, especially across the far southeast plains,
east of the I-25 corridor, where low level inflow winds are progged
to reach 10-25 kts, helping to elevate shear values up to 45 or 50
kts.  SPC currently has the far southeast plains in a marginal risk
for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening.  This looks like a
good starting point until we see how things actually evolve. Earlier
model runs were not showing so much shear.  Farther west, from the
Interstate 25 corridor westward, shear values are coming in lower
Tuesday, around 25-35 kts. This will mean a lower severe threat for
these areas but not a nil threat.  The Pikes Peak Region, in
particular, could still see some severe weather.

Wednesday looks like another day with decent storm chances over the
region.  Models have good surface moisture in place along with
monsoonal moisture and disturbances moving through. The severe
threat currently doesn`t look all that great for this day with shear
values coming in at just 25-35 knots.  However, some isolated pulse
severe type storms will still be possible due to the presence of
ample CAPE.

Thursday and Friday currently look like less active days before a
possible upswing in convection again for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Recent high-resolution simulations suggest that the northerly winds
gusting to around 30 mph at times(especially at/near the KCOS taf
site) should begin decreasing around 03Z Monday.  Otherwise, the
KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites will continue to experience VFR
conditions during the next 24 hours as low precipitable water(PW)
values combine with upper ridging that will be building into
southern Colorado.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$