921
FXUS65 KPUB 180701
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
101 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub-freezing temperatures this morning and again tonight
  through Sunday morning across the southeast plains. Coldest
  readings expected this morning.

- Warming temperatures for the weekend through early next week
  with critical fire weather conditions across the far southeast
  corner for Sunday and Monday.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions likely Wednesday
  and Thursday across much of southern Colorado, with showers
  over the high country as another system passes to our north.

- Unsettled pattern continues late week into next weekend with a
  slight cool down and uptick in showers possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

It will be a cold morning to start the day with subfreezing
temperatures and a Freeze Warning in effect across all of the
southeast plains.  Otherwise, dry conditions expected over the 24
hour period with temperatures rebounding back into the 60s across
the lower elevations with 50s for the valleys and 30s and 40s for
the mountains.  Gusty northerly winds will pick up this morning
across the far eastern plains, but should slacken off in the
afternoon as the gradient weakens. There could be some spotty
critical fire weather conditions today near the KS border early
given low humidity values, but conditions look too brief to
warrant a fire weather highlight.

Otherwise, tonight will be cold once again as winds lighten and
skies remain mostly clear. Subfreezing temperatures will be a
good bet across most or all of the southeast plains once again.
Current freeze watch still looks on track and will leave it as
is until the current Freeze Warning for this morning expires.
Suspect later shifts will be upgrading with the day time
package. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Northwest flow aloft continues for Sunday as the upper ridge axis
out west shifts slowly eastward. Lee troughing redevelops with
enhanced westerly flow across the lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains/adjacent plains and on the east side of the lee
trough axis across the far east plains.  Dew points remain low on
Sunday with most areas in the single digits and teens and even some
negative single digits across the mountains.  This will yield
minimum relative humidity values in the 5 to 15 percent range across
much of the region, so where winds are strong enough, critical fire
weather conditions will be a concern. This looks most likely to
occur across the southeast corner of the state, and have issued
a Fire Weather Watch for Baca county for Sunday afternoon and
evening. Spottier conditions will be possible across the upper
Arkansas River Valley, but with ridging moving in aloft, suspect
winds will not be gusty enough for a long enough duration to
warrant fire weather highlights.

Temperatures continue to warm through next week.  Winds decrease for
Monday and Tuesday as the upper ridge translates in aloft.
Southwesterly flow eventually advects sufficient moisture over the
mountains for some high based showers during the afternoon and
evening periods, but these won`t produce much in the way of
precipitation. Temperatures will rebound back into the 80s to near
90 across the southeast plains by Tuesday.

The next Pacific low will move into the western U.S. for mid week
and lift to the northeast across the northern U.S. Rockies Wednesday
night and Thursday. This puts southern CO under the dry and windy
southern sector of the system which will result in another round of
strong winds and widespread critical fire weather conditions for
Wednesday and Thursday.  The Continental Divide will see some
increasing showers on Wednesday, and Thursday will be tricky for the
plains with the timing of another cold front.  But odds for any
wetting precipitation look low across the lower elevations both
days.  Another upper low reloads out west late week into the weekend
keeping unsettled conditions across CO.  Details are murky at best
with differences in timing and track of this system as it takes
shape out west and eventually ejects across the Rockies next
weekend.  Overall, it will be a little cooler with the potential for
another uptick in showers, especially for the mountains.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light
and diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ083>089-
093>099.
Freeze Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
COZ083>089-093>099.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW