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000
FXUS65 KPUB 271023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...The heat continues today...

Currently...Southwest flow aloft persists across the region, with
some high level clouds along the southern border. Temperatures have
dropped into the 50s to lower 60s for much of the forecast area, but
remain in the 70s for the far eastern plains where southwest winds
have remained somewhat strong with gusts up to 30 mph.

Today and tonight...The overall weather pattern remains the same
today, with an upper closed low over the OR and WA coast, and an
upper ridge of high pressure centered over TX and NM. Warming
southwest flow aloft will persist across the Four Corners region,
pushing high temps this aftn into the 80s for the high valleys, and
90s to 100F for the plains. Models indicate that a slight increase
in llvl moisture from the south, coupled with sfc winds shifting to
an upslope direction due to solar insolation, will spark isolated
convection across the southern tier near the NM state line by
midday. These isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms will
spread north and east through the aftn and early eve, producing
gusty winds up to 50 mph at times as well as cloud to ground
lightning. Activity will diminish by midnight, and clearing skies
overnight will help temps cool to lows in the 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Relatively minor adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with generally isolated thunderstorms in combination
with above seasonal temperatures expected to continue over
southern Colorado until at least Saturday as upper ridge centered
over south-central New Mexico early Friday becomes centered over
western Kansas by later Saturday.

Then, increased precipitation chances(including the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and associated flash flood risks) in
combination with moderating temperatures are projected from later
in the weekend into mid-week next week as the upper high moves
east of the CWA in combination with increased atmospheric content
developing over southern Colorado as depicted by projected
precipitable water values over the Interstate 25 corridor
increasing from around 0.50 inches Friday afternoon to around
1.25 inches at times from Sunday into early next week.

Projected maximum temperatures are still expected to challenge or
slightly exceed 100F over select eastern locations(including but
not limited to La Junta and Lamar) both Friday and Saturday in
advance of moderating temperatures from later in the weekend into
next week. Finally, basically low-grade gradient winds are
expected over the CWA during the balance of the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

VFR conditions expected across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the southern portions of the forecast area near the NM state
line, then spread north across the higher terrain and adjacent
plains through the aftn and eve. The main threat will be gusty winds
and some lightning, between 18z and 03z. Will not mention VCTS in
the TAFs since the chances are very low. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$