


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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427 FXUS65 KPUB 172337 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 537 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated strong to severe storm possible over the far Southeast Plains through this evening. - Critical meteorological fire weather conditions area-wide on Sunday. - Snow spreading along the Continental Divide Sunday with cooler and unsettled weather on tap for Monday. - Patchy frost possible across higher portions of the Plains early Tuesday morning. - Warmer and drier weather on tap through the end of the work week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough moving into Utah this afternoon, with energy associated with an embedded wave across northeast New Mexico. Spotty, critical fire weather conditions are in place across the San Luis Valley, where southwest winds are gusting 25 to 30 mph and humidity values under 15 percent. Across the Plains, southeast surface flow continues, with moisture slowly working back west with dewpoints from the mid 30s along the I-25 corridor, to low 40s near the Kansas border. Temperatures are mild with mostly 70s across the lower elevations. Rest of today and tonight...the weak embedded wave lifting northeast out of New Mexico will be the main focus for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as the moves across far southeast Colorado. Moisture is marginal, with dewpoints mainly 40-45F and up to 700 j/kg of SBCAPE. High-res model guidance varies on storm development, with the NAM4km and FV3 the most aggressive, while the WRF and HRRR are the least. Still thinking the areas of Bent, Prowers and Baca Counties have the best chances of see a stronger storm given the modest instability and decent shear. Hail to near 1 inch in diameter and outflow winds near 60 mph may be possible. Any thunderstorms that do develop will quickly shift east into Kansas through 9 PM. Elsewhere, shower activity is forecast to spread from the Central Mountains into the Palmer Divide through this evening. Elevations above 12 kft will likely see light snowfall. This activity will dissipate after sunset. Outflow from storms to the east will back westward across the Plains late tonight. This will help keep moisture in place briefly through Sunday morning and help keep overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday...the upper trough will continue to shift eastward on Sunday. The main concern will be strong southwesterly flow, from the San Luis Valley in the morning, spreading east across the Plains by early afternoon. Any moisture in place on the Plains will quickly be pushed eastward, with drier air in place through the afternoon. Winds look strongest across the San Luis Valley where gusts could approach 50 mph. On the Plains, widespread 40+ plus mph wind gusts are possible. The dry air and strong winds will combine to produce meteorological critical fire conditions area-wide. The dry air should help prevent shower and thunderstorm development on the Plains. Temperatures will be warm, with mostly 70s across the lower elevations. Along the Continental Divide, snow will steadily increase through the day. Snow accumulations look high enough for low end Winter Weather Advisory issuance for the highest peaks. Snow amounts of 3- 6 inches are possible throughout the day, with the heaviest snowfall expected over the San Juan Range where the most favorable orographics exist. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Sunday night-Monday night...Latest model data remains consistent with moderating westerly flow aloft across the Rockies Sunday night, which becomes more north to northwest through the day Monday and Monday night, as the trailing piece of the passing upper system dig across the Central Rockies Monday before lifting out across the Central High Plains Monday night. The westerly flow keeps rain and higher elevation snow fall ongoing along and west of the Continental Divide Sunday night, with the focus of precipitation shifting to the Northern and Central mtns through Monday morning with the developing northwest orographic flow. Snow levels down to around 9K feet supports light to moderate snow accumulations at and above 10K feet, with 4 to 8 inches possible across the higher peaks of the Eastern San Juan and La Garita mtns, as well as the Eastern Sawatch Range and Western Mosquitos, and will continue the late season winter weather advisory in place through Monday morning. Further east, passing system sends a cold front across the Plains early Monday morning with breezy northerly winds 15 to 30 mph in its wake. The passing system will also support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Monday afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected over and near the higher terrain. While precipitation does not look to be heavy, could also see some snow accumulations across the higher terrain of the Eastern mtns, with some snow mixing in under the heavier showers across the higher portions of the plains. Clearing skies and decoupled winds behind the system Monday night could lead to some patchy frost across the higher portions of the Plains into early Tuesday morning. For Tuesday and beyond, latest model data keeps drier west to northwest flow in place through the end of the work week, leading to a warming trend to above seasonal temperatures by the end of the week. Mainly dry conditions are in place as well, though can`t rule out a few afternoon showers across the higher terrain. Some model differences develop towards the end of next week into next weekend, where as the ECMWF develops more southwesterly flow aloft across the region, leading to more low level moisture being advected into eastern Colorado, and an increased potential for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Time will tell. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS for the next 24 hours. West-southwesterly winds gusting to 30kt are likely to continue through around 02Z this evening, weakening after sunset. Winds begin to strengthen again first thing Sunday morning, with gusts to 40kt possible at all three stations, especially for KALS and KPUB. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will also be possible at KCOS Sunday morning, mainly between 12Z and 15Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ058-060-066-068. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...EHR