427
FXUS65 KPUB 172337
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
537 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated strong to severe storm possible over the far
  Southeast Plains through this evening.

- Critical meteorological fire weather conditions area-wide on
  Sunday.

- Snow spreading along the Continental Divide Sunday with cooler
  and unsettled weather on tap for Monday.

- Patchy frost possible across higher portions of the Plains
  early Tuesday morning.

- Warmer and drier weather on tap through the end of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough moving into Utah
this afternoon, with energy associated with an embedded wave across
northeast New Mexico.  Spotty, critical fire weather conditions are
in place across the San Luis Valley, where southwest winds are
gusting 25 to 30 mph and humidity values under 15 percent.  Across
the Plains, southeast surface flow continues, with moisture slowly
working back west with dewpoints from the mid 30s along the I-25
corridor, to low 40s near the Kansas border.  Temperatures are mild
with mostly 70s across the lower elevations.

Rest of today and tonight...the weak embedded wave lifting northeast
out of New Mexico will be the main focus for isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening as the moves across far southeast
Colorado.  Moisture is marginal, with dewpoints mainly 40-45F and up
to 700 j/kg of SBCAPE.  High-res model guidance varies on storm
development, with the NAM4km and FV3 the most aggressive, while the
WRF and HRRR are the least.  Still thinking the areas of Bent,
Prowers and Baca Counties have the best chances of see a stronger
storm given the modest instability and decent shear.  Hail to near 1
inch in diameter and outflow winds near 60 mph may be possible.  Any
thunderstorms that do develop will quickly shift east into Kansas
through 9 PM.

Elsewhere, shower activity is forecast to spread from the Central
Mountains into the Palmer Divide through this evening.  Elevations
above 12 kft will likely see light snowfall.  This activity will
dissipate after sunset.

Outflow from storms to the east will back westward across the Plains
late tonight.  This will help keep moisture in place briefly through
Sunday morning and help keep overnight lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Sunday...the upper trough will continue to shift eastward on Sunday.
The main concern will be strong southwesterly flow, from the San
Luis Valley in the morning, spreading east across the Plains by early
afternoon.  Any moisture in place on the Plains will quickly be
pushed eastward, with drier air in place through the afternoon.
Winds look strongest across the San Luis Valley where gusts could
approach 50 mph.  On the Plains, widespread 40+ plus mph wind gusts
are possible.  The dry air and strong winds will combine to produce
meteorological critical fire conditions area-wide.  The dry air
should help prevent shower and thunderstorm development on the
Plains.  Temperatures will be warm, with mostly 70s across the lower
elevations.

Along the Continental Divide, snow will steadily increase through
the day.  Snow accumulations look high enough for low end Winter
Weather Advisory issuance for the highest peaks.  Snow amounts of 3-
6 inches are possible throughout the day, with the heaviest snowfall
expected over the San Juan Range where the most favorable
orographics exist. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

Sunday night-Monday night...Latest model data remains consistent
with moderating westerly flow aloft across the Rockies Sunday night,
which becomes more north to northwest through the day Monday and
Monday night, as the trailing piece of the passing upper system
dig across the Central Rockies Monday before lifting out across
the Central High Plains Monday night. The westerly flow keeps rain
and higher elevation snow fall ongoing along and west of the
Continental Divide Sunday night, with the focus of precipitation
shifting to the Northern and Central mtns through Monday morning
with the developing northwest orographic flow. Snow levels down to
around 9K feet supports light to moderate snow accumulations at
and above 10K feet, with 4 to 8 inches possible across the higher
peaks of the Eastern San Juan and La Garita mtns, as well as the
Eastern Sawatch Range and Western Mosquitos, and will continue the
late season winter weather advisory in place through Monday morning.

Further east, passing system sends a cold front across the Plains
early Monday morning with breezy northerly winds 15 to 30 mph in
its wake. The passing system will also support the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Monday
afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected over and
near the higher terrain. While precipitation does not look to
be heavy, could also see some snow accumulations across the
higher terrain of the Eastern mtns, with some snow mixing in
under the heavier showers across the higher portions of the
plains. Clearing skies and decoupled winds behind the system
Monday night could lead to some patchy frost across the higher
portions of the Plains into early Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday and beyond, latest model data keeps drier west to
northwest flow in place through the end of the work week, leading
to a warming trend to above seasonal temperatures by the end of
the week. Mainly dry conditions are in place as well, though
can`t rule out a few afternoon showers across the higher terrain.
Some model differences develop towards the end of next week into
next weekend, where as the ECMWF develops more southwesterly flow
aloft across the region, leading to more low level moisture being
advected into eastern Colorado, and an increased potential for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS for the next 24
hours. West-southwesterly winds gusting to 30kt are likely to
continue through around 02Z this evening, weakening after sunset.
Winds begin to strengthen again first thing Sunday morning, with
gusts to 40kt possible at all three stations, especially for KALS
and KPUB. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will also be possible at
KCOS Sunday morning, mainly between 12Z and 15Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday
for COZ058-060-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR