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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251025
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
425 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Upper jet across the nrn Rockies today, while high pressure remains
in the place over the desert SW another day. Pattern favors hot and
dry conditions over all of srn CO, and with stronger winds aloft
dropping southward into the area, expect an increase in w-nw winds
at many locations. Portions of the upper Arkansas Valley already
experienced spotty critical fire weather conditions yesterday, and
with increased winds today, should see enough of the area reach
thresholds to warrant a Red Flag Warning this afternoon and evening.
Windiest spots will be over the higher peaks, and in nw gap flow
aligned areas, including the Ark valley from Salida east toward
Canon City. Teller county/Pikes Peak region will get close to
critical levels as well, though RH is currently forecast to stay
slightly above 15 percent, so won`t issue any highlight here.
Farther south, winds won`t be strong enough for a warning, though
air mass will remain fairly dry. Max temps today will soar to well
above seasonal averages, with record highs forecast in Pueblo (fcst
100f, record 98f in 2011) and Colorado Springs (fcst 94f, record 94f
in 2011). Tonight, cold front begins to drop south through the
plains after midnight, though any impacts from the frontal passage
look limited to briefly gusty north winds east of I-25 toward
sunrise on Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Monday - Tuesday...

To start the long term, upper level ridge will be weak and south of
Colorado, with the edge of stronger northwest flow across northern
Colorado. Anomalously dry air will be in place over the forecast
area. On Monday, a potent shortwave trough will swing across the
northern Rockies into the northern plains and the upper midwest.
This feature will send a cold front and expanding surface high
pressure racing south and west across the eastern Colorado plains
during the day. Although low-level moisture will increase behind the
front, dry antecedent conditions, a stable airmass, and large scale
subsidence aloft will keep the area mostly dry. Isolated showers and
weak thunderstorms may develop in the upslope regime over the
eastern mountains and Raton Mesa. Daytime temperatures will depend
on the timing of the front, but it appears it will pass early enough
to keep temperatures considerably cooler than those on Sunday. Highs
will likely struggle to reach 90 across the plains, with mid 80s
expected in Colorado Springs and the high valleys. Winds will become
breezy along and behind the front from the northeast and eventually
east, calming down again during the evening. Low clouds may expand
across the eastern mountains and eastern plains by Tuesday morning
behind the front.

Tuesday, another shortwave will take a similar track to that on
Monday, sending another cold front south and west across the eastern
Colorado plains. The front will again be accompanied by a brief
period of breezy northeasterly to easterly winds, along with late
night to early Wednesday morning low clouds. Deep moisture will
remain well below normal west of the eastern mountains, so those
areas should remain dry. However, improving moisture, and upslope low
level flow should kick off isolated to scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms over the eastern mountains and Raton Mesa, with closer
to isolated coverage across the rest of the plains. Temperatures
will be even cooler during the day, with highs in the mid 80s across
the plains, around 80 in Colorado Springs, and 70s to mid 80s in the
high valleys.

Wednesday - Saturday...

The upper ridge builds and establishes itself over the southwest US
during this period. This pattern maintains moderate and primarily
drying northwest flow over Colorado. Subtle disturbances in the flow
and just enough moisture should yield isolated shower and
thunderstorm chances across much of the forecast area Wedensday and
Thursday. Temperatures on these days should gradually rise back into
the mid 90s across the plains and around 90 in Colorado Springs. On
Friday, models are consistent on a more potent shortwave trough
moving across, or clipping the northeast part of, the state, sending
another cold front across the plains. Increased moisture and
easterly upslope flow behind the front should lead to increased
precipitation chances across the plains and eastern mountains by
Friday evening. Depending on the timing of the cold front passage,
temperatures may be cooler on Friday. Surface high pressure
continues to expand across the central US plains into Saturday in
the wake of the upper shortwave trough, maintaining moist east to
southeast flow into Colorado. As a result, precipitation chances
may remain elevated on Saturday, and temperatures even cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

VFR at all terminals the next 24 hrs, with a period of gusty nw
winds this afternoon and early this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ220-222.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...PETERSEN