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382
FXUS65 KPUB 090650
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

Updated to add areas of fog to the San Luis Valley for tonight
into the morning hours.  Mozley

UPDATE Issued at 544 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

Quick update to reduce precipitation chances for tonight over El
Paso County. Models continue to trend dry, thus have generally
eliminated chances for tonight. If a shower can get going, far
northern areas would be the most likely spot to receive either
flurries or a few passing sprinkles.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

Moderate to heavy snowfall continues to fall over the high country,
therefore the Winter Storm Warning over the eastern San Juan
mountains and the Winter Weather Advisory over the Sawatch and
northern Mosquito Mountains will continue through 8AM MST Monday.
An additional 5 or so inches of snow is expected over the eastern
San Juans and an additional 2 to 5 inches is expected for the
northern mountains. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains seem to be
over-performing over the highest peaks, but La Veta Pass has very
little accumulations on the road, therefore the impact of this
storm doesn`t warrant the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory.

The two trough forecast that has been discussed in previous
forecasts discussions continues to hold true. The southern trough
will propagate over southern New Mexico, and the northern trough
will push a cold front over the plains during the overnight hours.
The frontal passage will likely create low clouds and gusty winds
as it passes overhead, but there is a low chance that any
precipitation will fall due to the front. The best chance would be
over the Palmer Divide, though. The post frontal winds will shift
the winds over the plains to the east, which will cause some
upslope flow over the southeastern mountains and the Raton Mesa.
Precipitation chances will increase in that area later in the day
on Monday.

Lows overnight should be handled pretty well by the NBM, since there
is moisture in place, so expect lows over the plains in the 20s to
30s, the mountain valleys in the teens to lower 20s, and the
mountains in the single digits to low teens. The frontal passage
tomorrow will cool off the plains, as compared to today, so expect
high temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s over the plains and
mountain valleys and teens to 20s over the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

Mon night an upper level trof will move out of the area, leaving
mainly dry northwest flow aloft through Tue.  Temps on Tue will be a
little warmer than on Mon, with highs in the 40s across the
southeast plains, and in the 30s in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas
River Valley.

Tue night into early Wed, an upper level ridge will move over the
area and the weather will be dry.  However, Wed afternoon and Wed
night one upper level trof will move by the area to the north of CO,
while another one digs into AZ and NM. There continues to be some
model differences with the ECMWF taking the upper low farther south
than the GFS, and the operational GFS doesn`t close it off until it
is over the Tx Panhandle.  The GFS ensemble members are also split
on this system, with some members taking the upper low to along the
southern AZ border, and other members keeping it an open wave
farther north. However, the models are still keeping the weather
dry. This system will then move away from the area on Thu. High
temps Wed and Thu should be just slightly warmer than on Tue over
the southeast plains, with little change in the high valleys.

The weather become more unsettled for Fri and the weekend, as
westerly flow sends a stream of moisture over the area.  The
Continental Divide should be affected the most, with several inches
of snow likely. Temps will cool as bit each day Fri thru Sun. Sun an
upper trof moves over CO, sending a front thru eastern CO and
bringing the potential for snow to the eastern mtns, the San Luis
Valley and the southeast plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1038 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

KALS -

Live video cameras at 0530 UTC were showing dense fog covering the
city. However latest ob was showing clear skies at KALS airport
but believe this will not last long. Question is how long will low
cigs/vis last. Model consistency software shows low clouds likely
through late morning and have worded TAF as such. However, with
lots of higher clouds moving across the valley, I would not be too
surprised if low cigs/vis vary throughout the night, but overall
low clouds and low vis should dominate until at least mid morning.
Skies should clear by late morning with VFr thereafter.

KCOS and KPUB...

We should see VFR through the next 24 hours. Cold front will move
through in a couple of hours and this should keep a NW component
to the wind across these taf sites. However we could see periods
of bkn050 at times this morning. Winds should gradually go over to
east to southeast by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Monday for COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Monday for COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH