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000
FXUS65 KPUB 261055 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
455 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Key messages:

1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon,
mainly west of I-25. Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy
rainfall are possible with any stronger storm.

2) Low risk for burn scar flash flooding this afternoon, primarily
for Hayden Pass and Decker, and the Chalk Creek area.

Relatively quiet this morning, with the drying trend from yesterday
evening continuing early this morning. At this time, observing only
light rain development across the far southeast plains, situated
along the 700mb trough axis. Elsewhere, low/mid level southeast flow
in place along with a very moist environment is likely supporting
some light rain over and near the mountains. This will likely
continue through the early morning hours but as upstream energy
lifts across the area and as this trough axis also shifts north,
will see some trend towards increasing isentropic ascent. This
should help to spread this light rain development further
west/northwest towards the Highway 50 corridor through mid to late
morning. While the risk of thunderstorms is not zero, really weak
instability/lapse rates will limit any development this morning.

By late morning and midday, lapse rates will steepen and overall
instability increases for areas west of I-25 corridor. Meanwhile,
upstream energy moving in from the west should support scattered
thunderstorm development across the Continental Divide this
afternoon. This will likely continue through the afternoon hours,
slowly moving further to the east. Severe threat is low today,
though these thunderstorms with some locally heavy rainfall could
provide a risk for burn scar flash flooding this afternoon. Given
where the instability will set up today, think the Hayden Pass and
Decker burn scars will be the most at risk today, along with the
Chalk Creek area. Any thunderstorm potential east of the mountains
this afternoon looks to be on the low side. Thunderstorms will
diminish early this evening, though rain likely continuing before
diminishing from northwest to southeast during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Key Message:

1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over and near the higher
terrain with a warming trend into the middle of the work week.

2) More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances returning late
in the week and into next weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Latest models continue to indicate a minor wave
within weak westerly flow aloft moving across the region early Monday
morning, with flow aloft then becoming more northwest later Monday
through Wednesday, as upper level high pressure builds into the Great
Basin. The movement of the minor wave will keep the threat of scattered
showers and a few possible thunderstorms in place early Monday morning,
especially across the southeast mts through the far southeast plains,
where the best available moisture remains progged. With moisture in place,
along with strong solar heating, will see scattered thunderstorms develop
over and near the higher terrain Monday afternoon into the early
evening,with the potential for a few stronger storms with progged
SBCape of 500-1000 j/kg. Main storm threats look to be locally
heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding with the
progged weak flow aloft. Temperatures on Monday remain on the cool
side, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across the lower
elevations, coolest across the more stable far southeast plains,
with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
Drier air continues to move into the region within the northwest
flow aloft through the day Wednesday, with enough residual moisture
to support more isolated and higher based storms Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon, generally over and near the higher terrain.
Temperatures are expected to warm back to seasonal levels Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday...Again, latest models remain consistent on the upper
high across the Great Basin to be shunted south, as short wave energy
translates across the Pacific Northwest and through the Northern Tier of
States into early next weekend. This will allow for a resurgence of
subtropical moisture to move into the Rockies within more west to southwest
flow aloft progged across the region. This will allow for increasing chances
and coverage of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms areawide, with the
best coverage over the higher terrain. One passing wave also looks to send
a front across the region later Thursday, with developing low level upslope
flow leading to better chances of storms across the I-25 Corridor and eastern
plains for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures look to cool to below seasonal
levels into the early weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 450 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Generally cloudy conditions with occasional light rain showers
expected across all of the TAF sites. Conditions have been on the
dry side for much of the night, however, expect rain development
through the morning hours especially across ALS and PUB. While rain
is possible at COS this morning, chances look to be low at this
time. Would expect increasing chances for rain at COS later this
afternoon. Overall thunder risk looks low at this time for all
sites, but if it were to occur, it would be during the afternoon
time frame. MVFR ceilings in place this morning should improve by
midday and early afternoon, and likely become VFR later this
afternoon. VFR and dry weather then expected for COS and PUB
tonight, while light rain continues and MVFR ceilings return for
ALS. Expect a steady south southeast wind at all sites for much of
the period, with a few gusts possible this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ