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FXUS65 KPUB 162359
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
559 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through this evening, mainly over and near the higher
  terrain.

- Warmer on Friday with highs in the 80s.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms over the mountains through
  next week with a brief uptick possible across the plains on
  Tuesday

- Increasing winds and fire danger for Sunday and Monday though
  only Baca County at risk for Fire Weather Headlines due to
  recent moisture and greenup elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Currently...radar shows generally scattered showers and
thunderstorms dropping south across the higher terrain.  A few
storms have also develop down along the New Mexico border.
Temperatures are pleasant, with 60s to mid 70s across the region.
Winds are mostly light across Colorado.

Rest of today and tonight...an upper low is currently track east
across central New Mexico heading into western Texas overnight.
Meanwhile, a quick moving upper vort max will continue to shift
southeast across eastern Colorado this evening, clearing to the
southeast by midnight.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue into this evening across the higher terrain.  An isolated
shower and thunderstorm may develop into the I-25 corridor, but
coverage will be spotty.  All precipitation looks to shift
southward, dissipating through midnight, and dry conditions
prevailing into Friday morning.  Overnight lows will fall into the
40s across the Plains, and 30s over the San Luis Valley.

Friday...upper level ridging will spread east across Colorado Friday
with quiet weather expected.  Temperatures will also be warming up,
with highs reaching into the 80s across the Plains.  An isolated
shower or thunderstorm may be possible over the San Juan Range, but
overall confidence in occurrence is low.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Passing wave to north will send a cold front through the southeast
plains Friday night which will bank up along the eastern slopes for
Saturday. Shortwave energy in southwest flow aloft will bring
stronger deep layer shear as well as a trigger for thunderstorm
development Saturday afternoon and evening, but it appears CAPE will
be the limiting factor as dew point return lags behind the front.
With southeasterly low level flow, focus for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be across the Pikes Peak region as well as the
central mountains due to the trajectory of shortwave energy.  Main
risk will be locally heavy rainfall and possibly some small hail over
the higher terrain.

A more well defined shortwave will move through southwest flow aloft
on Sunday which will send the dry line eastward to near the KS
border.  Given the early day timing, this is likely to scour the
moisture out of southeast Colorado leading to a dry breezy day
across much of the region.  This will bring critical fire weather
conditions to much of the region, however with green up occuring and
fuels status not receptive to fire for most areas, only Baca county
will need to be monitored for potential fire weather highlights.

Southwest flow on Monday will keep dry and windy conditions over the
area with another potential critical fire weather day across Baca
county where fuels are critical.  Temperatures will remain above
normal.

Upper trough drags across CO on Tuesday sending another cold front
through the region in the Mon Night/Tues time frame depending on the
model. A quick shot of snow will be possible across the higher
mountains along with a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures from the
day before for the remainder of the area.  Dew points behind the
front quickly dry out so at least for now it doesn`t appear to be
much risk for strong thunderstorm development even though a
quick shot of showers/thunderstorms behind the front will be
possible.


The pattern remains active through the mid to latter part of next
week with yet another system crossing the northern U.S. Rockies on
Thursday.  Wednesday looks like another dry and breezy day across
southern CO with some showers possible across the central mountains
on Thursday depending on how amplified the upper trough is as
it crosses the mountains. NBM is pretty muted with this scenario
for now but as it is out in day 8 will not deviate from the
model blends. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light
(less than 10 kts) and diurnally influenced at all terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...STEWARD