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000
FXUS65 KPUB 312042
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
242 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Dry weather will continue over southern CO tonight and Wed morning.
Late tonight high level clouds are expected to move over the area.
Overnight lows are generally expected to be above average.

Wed afternoon a little moisture and instability could lead to
isolated or scattered showers, mostly over the Continental DVD, but
a few could also develop over the eastern mtns toward evening.  The
main concern for Wed is the potential for critical fire weather
conditions.  RH values over the plains are expected to be below 15%
in the afternoon, with areas of gusty winds.  The locations that are
expected to have the needed combination of strong enough winds and
low enough humidity, will be over Las Animas, Baca, and Huerfano
Counties.  Thus, will upgrade the fire weather watch to a Red Flag
Warning.  The latest forecast models don`t have low enough RH values
in the San Luis Valley to issue a red flag warning, although
locations in and around Alamosa could see near critical fire weather
conditions for a little while Wed afternoon with RH values dropping
to about 15%. There is the possibility that winds will be strong
enough late in the afternoon in Pueblo county to create a brief
period of critical conditions, but at this time is looks like that
period will be too short to issue a fire weather highlight. It will
be about 10-15 degrees above average on Wed, with highs in the upper
60s to lower or mid 70s along the I-25 corridor, in the upper 70s to
around 80 over the far southeast plains, in the lower 60s in the San
Luis Valley, the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Upper Arkansas River
Valley and in the 50s to around 60 in much of Teller County.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Wednesday Night and Thursday:

An upper level trough associated with a closed low pressure center
over Saskatchewan and Alberta will encroach upon southern Colorado,
bringing light snowfall over the central mountains. No snow or rain
is expected during the overnight. Low temperatures will be well
above average across the region. Expect low temperatures in the
upper 30s to low 40s, the 30s over the San Luis Valley, and the mid
30s over the upper Arkansas River Valley.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the lower
elevations on Thursday afternoon. The San Luis Valley is expected to
have wind gusts around 35 mph and their RH values are expected to be
below 15%. The plains will be a little bit warmer and a little bit
drier, but the wind speeds won`t be as strong, but should be strong
enough to qualify for Red Flag conditions. The area that will most
likely see critical fire weather conditions is the southern I-25
corridor, specifically from southern Pueblo County down to the New
Mexico border. There is a Fire Weather Watch for the aforementioned
locations.

A cold front is anticipated to travel over the eastern plains during
the late afternoon to evening. Initially when the front passes
overhead, rain is expected over northern El Paso County, but will
transition to snow once the nighttime temperatures dip below
freezing. 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected over the Palmer Divide
and Teller County. Southern El Paso County should remain all rain.


Friday:

The post frontal winds over the plains will be from the east-
southeast, which would promote low clouds to stick around throughout
the day on Friday, the NAM is picking up on the low clouds
remaining, but the GFS is picking up on a drier atmosphere. I think
the NAM is picking up on the correct signal. The San Luis Valley is
shielded from the cooler air will have near critical fire weather
conditions during the afternoon.

Saturday through Tuesday:

Some fairly monotonous, albeit impactful, weather is expected from
Saturday lasting through the beginning of the next work week. The
upper flow will consist of multiply shortwave troughs propagating
towards southern Colorado, a relatively weak jet streak setting up
across the center of the state, and lee cyclones developing over the
plains everyday. The result will be near critical to critical fire
weather conditions over the lower elevations each day from Saturday
through Tuesday. Each day also consists of isolated showers (rain
and snow) with a chance for thunder over the mountains. High
temperatures will be warmer and warmer each day, with the highest
high temperatures on Monday with values in the upper 70s to low 80s
over the plains, the 60s over the mountains valleys, and 20s to 30s
over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Winds overnight will mostly be under 10 kts at the terminal forecast
sites.  Gusty south to southwest winds are forecast for Wed
afternoon at the forecast sites, with gusts of around 20 kts for
KPUB and KCOS, and 20-25 kts for KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ229-230-
233-237.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ224-229-230-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...PETERSEN