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000
FXUS65 KPUB 282056
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Currently...radar imagery continues to show light returns over the
southern Sangre de Cristo range, east into the Raton Mesa.
Observations are sitting in the lower to mid 30s with northerly
winds around 15 to 30 mph.  Area webcams indicate little if any
precipitation is falling at this time, however, areas of light snow
mixing with rain are likely down south near the New Mexico border.
Elsewhere, temperatures have warmed through the 40s with a few lower
50s in and around El Paso County.

Rest of today and tonight...the large upper level low pressure
center over northern Texas will move into southeast Oklahoma
overnight.  This will bring precipitation to a close by midnight.
Before precipitation comes to an end, the next slug of moisture is
currently shifting west out of western Kansas, and high-resolution
model guidance has this handled well.  Expect another round of rain
and snow over Baca County late this afternoon and evening.  Given
that temperatures are near 40 around Springfield, this will likely
fall as rain, with some snow mixed in.  Models in good agreement
with this area of precipitation dropping southwest out of Baca
County around 9 PM, with dry conditions by midnight.  As the upper
low pulls away overnight, skies will clear from west to east.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight with 20s across the
Plains.  Areas of fog may be possible overnight into Thursday
morning across the San Luis Valley.

Thursday...the upper low will continue to track east away from
southern Colorado.  Shortwave riding will shift east across the
state by the afternoon.  This will lead to mostly clear skies
through the day, with light winds across the region.  Temperatures
will be the main forecast challenge and depend greatly on snow
cover.  Once again, undercut guidance by several degrees across the
Plains.  Most areas will see mid 40s to lower 50s through the
afternoon. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Generally quiet dry weather is expected through the extended period,
with a ridge of high pressure over the western US through the end of
the week. An upper shortwave crossing the Pac NW and Rockies Fri and
Sat will push a dry cold front south into CO Sat aftn, which should
cool temps across the eastern plains by 5 to 7 degrees for Sun. The
western ridge then begins to weaken and slide to the east starting
Mon, which will have the effect of boosting temps across the
forecast area.

Save for Sunday, a gradual warming trend is anticipated through the
middle of next week. Look for highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s for
the high valleys Fri, and mid 50s to around 60F for the plains. For
Sat, temps will climb into the 50s for the high valleys and 60s for
the plains. The cold front will drop max temps for Sun into the 50s
for most locations, then the warm up really takes hold for Mon
through Wed with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high
valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at KCOS and KPUB.
Gusty north winds at KCOS will subside this afternoon, with les than
10 kts of wind overnight.  Fog is likely to develop at KALS tonight
into Thursday morning, with reduced CIGS and VIS possible.  VFR
conditions will prevail once the fog has dissipated Thursday morning
at KALS.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY