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000
FXUS65 KPUB 051558
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
958 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Updated forecast to explicitly mention severe wording in the
digital database for parts of the fcst area. Greatest threat for
severe weather, including large hail, will be over most of El Paso
and Northern Pueblo counties this afternoon, with a lesser threat
over the remainder of the plains. SPC has added "hatched" hail
(hail > 2.00") over the I-25 corridor for this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The upper level ridge will be centered near the southern NM border
today, and it expected to move east over west central TX overnight.
This will lead to west or northwest flow aloft over southern CO
today, and becoming more southwest over western CO tonight. Forecast
models show a disturbance rounding the top of the ridge later today
which is forecast to move into northeast and east central CO in the
evening, and then moving into KS in the late night hours.

It looks like some isolated showers/storms over the mtns and high
valleys will probably develop between noon and 2 PM today, with the
models showing limited activity until the late afternoon or early
evening hours, and mainly confined to the mtns, high valleys and
portions of the I-25 corridor.  In the evening and late night hours,
storms are expected to move across the southeast plains, with some
activity likely persisting until 3 AM or even a little longer over
the far eastern areas.  CAPE values across the plains this afternoon
and evening are forecast to be >1500 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear
values of 35-40 kts, and most of the eastern areas are SPC`s
marginal risk for severe storms.  Some of the high res models show
El Paso County seeing some stronger storms late this afternoon and
into the evening, and maybe developing southward into Pueblo County.

The burn scars do not look at high risk for flooding today, however
with the potential for some storms over and near the Decker, Hayden
Pass, Junkins and Spring scars, there is always the chance that a
storm could produce moderate to heavy rain for a short period on a
scar that could result in flash flooding.

Temps today are expected to be slightly above average, with highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s over the plains and I-25 corridor, in
the 80s in the high valleys, and in the mid 70s to around 80 in
Teller County.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Thursday...An upper-level ridge is expected to continue moving
across the state, bringing generally drier air along with it.
However, easterly flow at the surface will keep dew points
relatively high across the plains, especially near the Kansas
border. An embedded weak disturbance is expected to propagate along
the ridge, sparking some shower and thunderstorm activity, but
coverage is expected to be lower than the past several days. With
the elevated low-level moisture across the eastern plains, CAPE
values are expected to reach around 1500 J/kg or greater, mainly
east of I-25. In addition, bulk shear values are anticipated to be
around 35 kts, resulting in the potential for a stronger storm or
two across the plains with gusty winds and large hail being the
primary threats. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid
90s across the plains and the 80s in the high valleys.

Friday through Tuesday...A high pressure center is expected to
develop over Texas and remain fairly stationary through the weekend
before retrograding back to the the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile an
upper-level trough is expected to be parked along the California
coast into the weekend, bringing southwest flow aloft and continued
dry conditions to the region. The flow aloft begins to flatten out
and become more westerly over the weekend, keeping drier conditions
in place through early next week. With drier air over the region,
daily thunderstorm coverage will be limited and generally confined
to the higher terrain. Temperatures also increase to the mid 90s to
around 100 for the plains, while the high valleys should remain in
the 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Some low stratus is expected early this morning in the KPUB and KCOS
areas but generally VFR conditions are expected today.  Late this
afternoon and early this evening there will be the possibility of
thunderstorms at or in the vicinity of KPUB and KCOS which could
cause reduced visibility and ceilings for a brief period.  Late
tonight some low stratus may again be in the area, but KCOS has the
highest chance of this occurring.

KALS may see some showers/storms at or in the vicinity, mainly this
afternoon and early this evening, which could cause gusty outflow
winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...CARLBERG
AVIATION...28