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000
FXUS65 KPUB 211016
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Thunderstorms have shifted east of the border with widespread low
clouds/and scattered showers continuing across the eastern half
of the area. This is expected to continue through the morning as
easterly upslope flow continues across the southeast mountains and
adjacent plains. Showers should come to an end by noon with a
cool, cloudy and stable day across the southeast mountains and
plains. Only exception to this will be across the southern Sangres
where afternoon instability may spark some isolated showers and
thunderstorms. CAMs models are remarkable free of precipitation
across even that area today...so think any risk to the southern
burn scars today will be low. Highs will top out in the 70s across
the plains...well below average for this time of year.

For the mountains...will see breezy northwest flow spread down from
the higher elevations once again. Temperatures will remain above
average and critical fire weather conditions will be possible once
again with humidities dropping below 15% across portions of the
Continental Divide and high valleys. With fuels still marked in
green up status...no fire weather highlights will be issued with
this package. But with the hot and dry weather continuing...fuels
may become receptive as the week progresses.

Should be a cool night across the region with low temperatures
dropping into the 40s and 50s...and even some 30s across the high
mountain valleys out west. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...Warmer and Drier through Mid Week...
...Cooler and more Unsettled Late Week into the Weekend...

Tuesday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging to our west builds back
overhead across the Rockies through the middle of the work week,
leading to warmer and drier conditions once again. Temperatures are
expected to warm back to above seasonal levels in the 90s to around
the century mark across the lower elevations, with readings mainly
70s and 80s across the higher terrain. There looks to be enough
moisture to support isolated afternoon showers and storms for areas
over and near the higher terrain, with convection being mainly high
based and producing more virga and gusty winds than measurable rain.
This, along with enough mixing to support breezy westerly winds through
the afternoon hours across western portions of the area, will lead
to possible critical fire weather conditions. However, most area
fuels remain non-critical and will need to see how they respond to
the continued hot an mainly dry weather.

Thursday-Sunday...Latest models continue to indicate some energy
riding the periphery of the ridge across the northern Rockies on
Thursday, leading to the potential for scattered afternoon showers
and storms over the higher terrain, which could spread east onto the
eastern plains through the late afternoon and evening hours, within
weak westerly flow aloft. Models also indicate more energy across
the Northern Tier translating across the Upper Midwest sending
another cold front across the region Friday and Saturday. This will
lead to cooler temperatures, most notable across the eastern plains
for Friday and Saturday, along with better chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the early weekend. By Sunday, drier air starts
to work back into the region within more northerly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KCOS and KPUB will see Cigs drop into the MVFR to IFR categories
this morning with IFR conditions most likely to stay restricted to
the KCOS taf site and for locations nearer to the mountains.  -SHRA
will be possible at both terminals through 14-15z.  Cigs will rise
into the MVFR category by 18z but may persist into the mid to late
afternoon before breaking.  Northeast winds 10-15 kts will shift
around from the southeast later this morning and continue through
the day before decreasing this evening.

KALS will remain VFR today with a wind shift from the west to
northwest in the late afternoon with speeds in the 10-20 kt range.
Winds will diminish early this evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT