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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231200
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
600 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 559 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Less thunderstorm activity is expected today across the plains
though the threat of a strong to severe storm is not entirely gone.
Upper flow over the area will remain out of the northwest to west
and upper forcing aloft will be weaker as we wait for the next upper
trof to approach later tonight.  Dry air will remain in place across
the mountains with breezy afternoon winds expected to spread down
into the valleys.  This will raise concerns for critical fire
weather conditions across the mountains and interior valleys once
again.  Current set of Red Flag Warnings still looks on target.
Winds should be a little weaker than yesterday, particularly
southern areas where this may end up being a more marginal event.

Across the plains...low level moisture has decreased behind
yesterday`s cold front with dew points currently in the 40s and
lower 50s.  NAM and GFS still differ with the amount of return
moisture as surface winds shift out of the southeast by afternoon.
Nam12 brings dew points back into the 50s to near 60 for the
southeast plains east of a La Junta to Kim line...while GFS is in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.  This makes a difference in the amount of
CAPE available though suspect that a blend is the way to go which
should still result in CAPEs of at least 1000-1500 j/kg, perhaps a
little more near the border.  Deep layer shears will be running
around 50 kts which will be supportive of storm organization.  Main
threat will be marginally severe hail and damaging winds as LCLs
look a little higher and there will be more downdraft CAPE to work
with.  The more challenging part will be a trigger as there will be
less upper forcing to work with today. High res models are
triggering convection across east central CO...with a few runs
suggesting the possibility for an isolated storm along the dry line
across the raton ridge area.  Will maintain some isolated pops for
northern and eastern portions of the plains.  For the I-25 corridor,
low level moisture will be more lacking today so thunderstorm
chances will stay in the silent category. There could be some
initiation along outflow boundaries during the evening which could
result in an isolated thunderstorms spreading back westward, but
overall, chances look remote.

Upper trof will approach from the northwest tonight which will send
a front through the southeast after midnight.  Should see some
showers spread into the central mountains and northern portions of
the southeast plains towards morning with isolated thunderstorms
possible across the far eastern plains towards morning.  Palmer
Divide will likely see the development of stratus with the
front...which will expand southeastward early Sunday morning. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 559 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

The cooler and unsettled conditions of Sunday, give way to warmer
and drier conditions next week, with the primary longer term
challenges being temperatures, near critical to critical fire
weather conditions as well as pops/strong to severe thunderstorm
potential at times.

Recent longer term forecast model soundings, computer
simulations and PV/Precipitable water analysis suggest critical
fire weather parameters should be realized over portions of the
San Luis Valley Sunday, therefore have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for the San Luis Valley for Sunday. In addition, recent
trends indicate that elevated fire weather conditions at times
will again be possible over many locations next week, especially
from mid to latter portions of next week.

Next longer term meteorological issue is the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms as well as locally heavy rainfall and
cooler temperatures from the eastern mountains/foothills into the
southeastern Colorado plains Sunday(which agrees well with SPC`s
recent Sunday Day 2 Severe Thunderstorm outlook) as latest trends
still indicate that favorable capes/LI`s/bulk shear and
atmospheric moisture values should interact with a passing upper
disturbance and associated northerly-northeasterly surface surge.
As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Latest computer simulations still indicate that warmer conditions
in combination with isolated showers and thunderstorms at times
should then be noted over the forecast district from Monday into
Friday as upper ridging from later Monday into Wednesday is
followed by a southwesterly upper flow pattern from Thursday
into Friday.

Finally, near to below seasonal later June temperatures are
anticipated from Sunday into Monday with above average
temperatures expected from Tuesday into Friday(as evidenced by
projected maximum temperatures challenging the Century mark over
several eastern locations during this time-frame.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 559 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

VFR conditions expected at the terminals today with KALS seeing a
return of gusty southwest winds in the afternoon with gusts to
around 20-25 kts possible.  KPUB and KCOS will see winds shift out
of the southeast in the 10-15 kt range during the afternoon.  Cold
front will arrive at KCOS and KPUB between 06z and 08z with the
potential for north winds gusting up to 25 kts behind the frontal
passage.  IFR stratus will spread into the Palmer Divide and far
eastern plains behind the front, though northerly winds off the
Palmer Divide should keep it north and east of KCOS and KPUB through
the TAF period. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ220-222>225.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ224.

&&

$$