Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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994
FXUS65 KPUB 050527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1027 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation winding down across the SE Plains.

- Dry later tonight through tomorrow with temps several degrees
  below average.

- Another system will bring colder temperatures and more
  widespread snow, especially to areas over and near the higher
  terrain late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winter Storm
  watches now in effect for Teller and northern El Paso County,
  and the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

- Details on weather and potential high impact system for
  Thursday into the weekend remain uncertain and dependent on
  track of cut off low pressure system across the Desert
  Southwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

Have updated grids to lower snow levels and increase snow
amounts across Baca county. Could see another inch or two of
accumulation under the snow band but latest radar trends show
signs of diminishing so no highlights look necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

Currently...

The weather system which brought (and is continuing to bring
over the SE Plains) precip to the region will continue to push
east. Rain and snow was still ongoing, and was generally located
east and south of a line from La Junta to west of Trinidad.
Temps along the US50 corridor east of KPUB were generally in the
40 to 45F range, while down along the Raton Mesa temps were in
the 30-35F range. Some clearing was noted in the Sat Pix imgy
over the CONTDVD region extending back towards the Pikes Peak
region.

Through tonight...

Precip over the plains will continue to push south and east as
he afternoon progresses, Main precip chances this evening will
be over the far southeast plains, and this activity should end
prior to midnight. As for fog, winds are expected to keep up
tonight so any widespread fog is not likely. It will be cool
tonight and expect lows generally in the mid 20s plains and tens
in the valleys.Single digits will prevail in the mtns.

Tomorrow...

Another strong storm will be moving towards the region, and its
impacts will begin to be felt over the CONTDVD by the afternoon
time period. Snow will be on the increase and clouds will
continue to increase over the remainder of the region. It will
be mild tomorrow, but temps will be several degrees below
average. Expect temps over the plains in the 50s with near 50F
in the San Luis Valley and 40s over the Upper Ark Valley. Tens
and 20s in the mtns.

Winds at lower elevations tomorrow will be light (especially as
compared to today) but will be breezy over te central mtns.
/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

Active weather quickly returns at the start of the period as a
large upper level low pivots across the region Tuesday evening.
As this occurs, will see the southern end of this low/trough and
strong upper jet swing across the area. This will help to
deepen the 700mb low over Colorado, and ultimately, really
tighten the baroclinic zone already in place. Will see north to
northeast, and even east, flow really ramp up in the evening.
With large scale ascent rapidly increase owing to the mid/upper
trough and moist upslope flow into the Ramparts, Palmer Divide,
and mid Ark Valley, precip is expected to really blossom in
these areas Tuesday evening. The tight baroclinic zone will be
something to keep an eye on, as this will aid in likely
isentropic ascent right into these same areas, along with likely
periods of FGEN during the overnight hours. This will all
support more efficient snow production initially first across
the Pikes Peak region and mid Ark Valley, but then over much of
southern Colorado during the overnight hours as this
forcing/focus shifts south with times. Light to moderate with
periods of heavy snow appear likely and with temperatures
falling to the 20s during the overnight hours, should see snow
covered and hazardous travel. Additionally, northerly winds will
ramp up across the plains, with blowing snow possibly becoming
an issue.

At this time, favored locations for highest snow look to be the
Sangre de Cristo and Wet mountains where snow will start first
late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Other areas for highest
totals look to be Teller and northern El Paso county. Based on
increasing confidence and current forecast snowfall, have issued
Winter Storm Watches for these locations to encompass the
Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening time frame. For the
remaining higher terrain, totals could increase for that period,
but at this time, look to fit more into Advisory type snow. For
the I-25 corridor, a Winter Weather Advisory could be needed,
but will allow later forecasts to take another look. Either way,
most locations across southern Colorado will likely see a cold
and snow start to the morning on Wednesday. For the Watches,
have an end time for later in the evening on Wednesday, though
confidence on the end time is not the highest. General consensus
is for the more impactful snow to diminish during this time,
but its quite possible that the snow continues at least for the
southern portions of the area, south of Highway 50.

The above mentioned uncertainty then continues Wednesday night
into the start of the weekend, mainly with how the previously
mentioned upper trough and now deep closed low will evolve. Not
only will the track of this system along with available moisture
be key, but how long the system may linger across the region
will be a huge factor the impacts and duration of these higher
potential impacts. Confidence is not the highest at this time,
as today`s guidance is still showing varying solutions for late
week into early Weekend. Model consistently and even run to run
consistency with the track and intensity of this upper low is
not quite there with most of the operational guidance. There is
some consistency with the ensemble data though, deepening and
pivoting a strong upper system across the area into the weekend.
This is all supporting lower confidence with either limited
snow and impacts, or more significant and impactful snows across
southern Colorado. Will definitely continue to keep a close eye
on this system and how later runs come in, especially if the
likelihood for the more impactful solutions increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the next 24
hours, with gradually clearing sky conditions and decreasing chances
for precipitation. There will be slight chances for fog tonight due
to recent precipitation, though winds are expected to keep fog
formation from being possible. For this reason, have kept fog and
mention of visibility restrictions out of both TAFs for now.
Northerly winds move in for both stations late in the period, with
light snow showers moving in after 03Z Tuesday evening for KCOS.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF
period, though fog and MVFR visibility restrictions will be possible
for a few hours from after 09Z until around 12Z early tomorrow
morning. Gusty southwest winds are expected tomorrow afternoon, with
increasing cloud cover late in the period. Snow chances will move in
after 06Z Tuesday night, which is just after this forecast
period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ072>075-079-080.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...EHR