Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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994 FXUS65 KPUB 050527 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1027 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation winding down across the SE Plains. - Dry later tonight through tomorrow with temps several degrees below average. - Another system will bring colder temperatures and more widespread snow, especially to areas over and near the higher terrain late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winter Storm watches now in effect for Teller and northern El Paso County, and the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. - Details on weather and potential high impact system for Thursday into the weekend remain uncertain and dependent on track of cut off low pressure system across the Desert Southwest. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 Have updated grids to lower snow levels and increase snow amounts across Baca county. Could see another inch or two of accumulation under the snow band but latest radar trends show signs of diminishing so no highlights look necessary. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 Currently... The weather system which brought (and is continuing to bring over the SE Plains) precip to the region will continue to push east. Rain and snow was still ongoing, and was generally located east and south of a line from La Junta to west of Trinidad. Temps along the US50 corridor east of KPUB were generally in the 40 to 45F range, while down along the Raton Mesa temps were in the 30-35F range. Some clearing was noted in the Sat Pix imgy over the CONTDVD region extending back towards the Pikes Peak region. Through tonight... Precip over the plains will continue to push south and east as he afternoon progresses, Main precip chances this evening will be over the far southeast plains, and this activity should end prior to midnight. As for fog, winds are expected to keep up tonight so any widespread fog is not likely. It will be cool tonight and expect lows generally in the mid 20s plains and tens in the valleys.Single digits will prevail in the mtns. Tomorrow... Another strong storm will be moving towards the region, and its impacts will begin to be felt over the CONTDVD by the afternoon time period. Snow will be on the increase and clouds will continue to increase over the remainder of the region. It will be mild tomorrow, but temps will be several degrees below average. Expect temps over the plains in the 50s with near 50F in the San Luis Valley and 40s over the Upper Ark Valley. Tens and 20s in the mtns. Winds at lower elevations tomorrow will be light (especially as compared to today) but will be breezy over te central mtns. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 Active weather quickly returns at the start of the period as a large upper level low pivots across the region Tuesday evening. As this occurs, will see the southern end of this low/trough and strong upper jet swing across the area. This will help to deepen the 700mb low over Colorado, and ultimately, really tighten the baroclinic zone already in place. Will see north to northeast, and even east, flow really ramp up in the evening. With large scale ascent rapidly increase owing to the mid/upper trough and moist upslope flow into the Ramparts, Palmer Divide, and mid Ark Valley, precip is expected to really blossom in these areas Tuesday evening. The tight baroclinic zone will be something to keep an eye on, as this will aid in likely isentropic ascent right into these same areas, along with likely periods of FGEN during the overnight hours. This will all support more efficient snow production initially first across the Pikes Peak region and mid Ark Valley, but then over much of southern Colorado during the overnight hours as this forcing/focus shifts south with times. Light to moderate with periods of heavy snow appear likely and with temperatures falling to the 20s during the overnight hours, should see snow covered and hazardous travel. Additionally, northerly winds will ramp up across the plains, with blowing snow possibly becoming an issue. At this time, favored locations for highest snow look to be the Sangre de Cristo and Wet mountains where snow will start first late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Other areas for highest totals look to be Teller and northern El Paso county. Based on increasing confidence and current forecast snowfall, have issued Winter Storm Watches for these locations to encompass the Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening time frame. For the remaining higher terrain, totals could increase for that period, but at this time, look to fit more into Advisory type snow. For the I-25 corridor, a Winter Weather Advisory could be needed, but will allow later forecasts to take another look. Either way, most locations across southern Colorado will likely see a cold and snow start to the morning on Wednesday. For the Watches, have an end time for later in the evening on Wednesday, though confidence on the end time is not the highest. General consensus is for the more impactful snow to diminish during this time, but its quite possible that the snow continues at least for the southern portions of the area, south of Highway 50. The above mentioned uncertainty then continues Wednesday night into the start of the weekend, mainly with how the previously mentioned upper trough and now deep closed low will evolve. Not only will the track of this system along with available moisture be key, but how long the system may linger across the region will be a huge factor the impacts and duration of these higher potential impacts. Confidence is not the highest at this time, as today`s guidance is still showing varying solutions for late week into early Weekend. Model consistently and even run to run consistency with the track and intensity of this upper low is not quite there with most of the operational guidance. There is some consistency with the ensemble data though, deepening and pivoting a strong upper system across the area into the weekend. This is all supporting lower confidence with either limited snow and impacts, or more significant and impactful snows across southern Colorado. Will definitely continue to keep a close eye on this system and how later runs come in, especially if the likelihood for the more impactful solutions increase. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with gradually clearing sky conditions and decreasing chances for precipitation. There will be slight chances for fog tonight due to recent precipitation, though winds are expected to keep fog formation from being possible. For this reason, have kept fog and mention of visibility restrictions out of both TAFs for now. Northerly winds move in for both stations late in the period, with light snow showers moving in after 03Z Tuesday evening for KCOS. For KALS..VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period, though fog and MVFR visibility restrictions will be possible for a few hours from after 09Z until around 12Z early tomorrow morning. Gusty southwest winds are expected tomorrow afternoon, with increasing cloud cover late in the period. Snow chances will move in after 06Z Tuesday night, which is just after this forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ072>075-079-080. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for COZ081-082-084. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...EHR