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000
FXUS65 KPUB 071723
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1023 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021

Warm and breezy conditions continuing across the area this
afternoon, with daytime mixing today allowing for stronger flow and
drier air to work its way to the surface. This has been most notable
across the far eastern plains, where southerly gusts up to 35 to 40
mph and low RH values have occurred. While near critical to critical
fire weather conditions developed this afternoon, they have remained
spotty. Expect these spotty conditions to continue for the next
couple of hours, with RH values improving into the evening. Lee
trough in place does look as if it will support continued stronger
winds and gusts for much of tonight over the eastern plains.
However, weaker gradient and flow in place on Sunday will limit
winds. Made little changes to the low temps tonight only to increase
slightly, with these elevated winds providing a relatively mild
night. Current high clouds passing overhead will shift east tonight,
with mostly sunny skies and above normal temps expected again on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021

Lee surface trough moves eastward to the KS border Mon as swly
flow deepens across CO. Models have been pretty insistent dragging
a weak wave through the area during the day Mon, though expect
main impact will be increased mid/high level cloudiness, with only
some flurries or light snow showers possible over the higher
elevations near the Continental Divide. Main question for Mon will
be how low will dewpoints drop along and east of the mountains, as
dry wly downslope winds develop. Most models and NBM dry air mass
out enough for RH to drop to near 15 percent in the afternoon,
while winds gust to 25-30 mph along and east of I-25. Will thus
hoist a Fire Weather Watch for much of the I-25 corridor and
eastern plains, leaving out Kiowa and nrn El Paso Counties where
RH will be slightly higher. Nudged max temps up just slightly from
NBM numbers given w-sw winds, though didn`t go as high as most
MOS guidance given potential for at least a period of mid/high
level cloudiness in the afternoon.

Strong swly flow aloft continues Tue/Wed as upper level low takes
shape along the West Coast, and expect high fire danger and Red
Flag conditions both days on the plains as deep mixing/warm
temperatures and dry downslope winds persist. Could see a few snow
showers back along the Continental Divide by Wed afternoon as some
weak energy ejects from wrn trough, though substantial precip
looks unlikely through Wed afternoon. Still a great deal of
uncertainly on when/if wrn U.S. upper low ejects, with operational
GFS and GEFS members trending faster than the ECMWF camp again
this morning. In fact, operational Euro never brings the low out
into the plains, instead keeping a weakening system over the SW
that eventually shears apart over the weekend. Given uncertainty,
made very few changes to broad-brush NBM pops from Thu into the
weekend, and will await a little more consensus before jumping on
the rather snowy/wet GFS solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1021 AM MST Sun Mar 7 2021

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours.
Expect mid and high level clouds to increase across the region
tonight and through the morning hours. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven through Monday morning before becoming westerly
by mid day.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ227>233-235>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY