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000
FXUS65 KPUB 150516
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Update to the forecast grids for cancellation of the Red Flag
Warning, and to incorporate latest obs data. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...Red Flag conditions will continue over and near the mountains
this afternoon and evening...

Gusty winds and low humidity values have resulted in Red Flag
conditions across the mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon.
This will continue through 01-02z before winds decouple and humidity
values rise.  Relative humidity recoveries will be poor across the
mid slope east facing exposures through the night due to enhanced
westerly drainage winds. Elsewhere, humidity recover will be fair to
good.

Meanwhile, a dry cold front will drop southward through the plains
in the wake of a northern stream upper trough moving through the
northern plains towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on
Tuesday. This front will bring a northerly wind shift overnight
across the southeast plains, and usher in cooler conditions for
Tuesday as winds shift around from an easterly upslope direction by
afternoon. Highs across the plains will be in the 60s, which will
net 10-15 degree cool down and knock temperatures back below climo.
Mountain areas will also see a slight cool down of a few degrees,
but not as dramatic as what will occur farther east. Humidity values
will drop below 15 percent across the mountains once again, but
winds will be lighter than the past few days, so a return of
critical fire weather conditions is not anticipated. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Tuesday night into Thursday...The mid to upper level flow is
expected to gradually shift from northwesterly Tuesday night to more
westerly then southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday. The mid to
upper level flows will also increase Wednesday, and especially
Thursday, allowing for some breezier winds mixing to the surface.
Warmer and drier air is also expected to be ushered into the region,
which will increase the concern for elevated fire weather conditions
on Thursday. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s on
Wednesday, then warm to the 80s on Thursday across the plains. The
high valleys should see highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s both days.

Friday and Saturday...A weak disturbance moves into the area late
Thursday into early Friday and persists through the day on Saturday.
An associated surface cold front is expected to move across the
region, bringing some cooler temperatures back to the area. Chances
for showers increase as well, mainly on Friday over the higher
terrain. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s over the plains and
low to mid 60s in the high valleys each day, with Saturday being the
cooler day of the two.

Saturday night into Monday...Long range models are indicating that a
stronger upper level trough will dig into the Rocky Mountain region
over the weekend. Guidance indicates another drop in temperatures
Sunday and Monday with increased precipitation chances across the
region. However, there still is some uncertainty on the timing and
how far south the trough digs, which will affect the precipitation
chances and just how cool the temperatures will get on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB the next 24
hrs. KCOS and KPUB should see northerly winds into Tue morning,
with winds then becoming east to southeast in the afternoon. KALS
should have winds under 10 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...CARLBERG
AVIATION...28