943
FXUS62 KTBW 201132
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
632 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Broad upper level trough will remain across the central and
eastern U.S. through the week with a series of shortwaves moving
through it. Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front that moved
through Sunday, will remain nearly stationary to our south with
the cool airmass holding across the region through the work week.

For today, we`ll continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies as
weak overrunning persists with temperatures only climbing to near
50 north to mid 60s south. The overrunning will increase tonight
and through Tuesday night as the next shortwave and associated
surface low pressure move east. Therefore, expect clouds to lower
and thicken tonight with areas of rain developing from south to
north overnight. Periods of rain are expected to continue through
Tuesday night and for the most part come to an end Wednesday
morning as the shortwave exits to the east. At this time the
prospect of seeing freezing precipitation across parts of Levy
County look rather low as the latest temperature forecasts
indicate that readings will remain in the middle to upper 30s late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

There will remain lingering chances for rain into Thursday night
as the upper level troughing continues and another shortwave moves
east across the area. This will bring more cold air into the
region with freezing temperatures possible across the northern
Nature Coast Thursday night/Friday morning, and across most of the
Nature Coast Friday night/Saturday morning.

For the remainder of the weekend into early next week we should
see drier conditions with temperatures moderating back closer to
normal as the upper level troughing finally lifts out and a more
zonal flow sets up across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

A frontal boundary is stalling out in South Florida, keeping a north
wind and BKN to OVC skies in place for what will likely be the next
few days. However, these CIGs should remain VFR today as the lowest
5kft to 10kft have dried out. As the boundary slowly starts to drift
back north overnight, the probability for rain increases to around
60% in the 06Z to 09Z time-frame. CIGs will lower in response to the
increasing low-level saturation, favoring MVFR by tomorrow morning.
These CIGs could potentially become IFR if the right circumstances
develop, but confidence is too low for mention at this time. No
significant visibility restrictions are expected, but some
reduction should be anticipated if heavier showers move over
terminals. Once this settles in, meaningful improvement is not
expected before Wednesday, but some potential for additional
impacts will linger until a much drier airmass moves in on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through midweek.
Winds speeds will be at advisory level this morning, diminishing
this afternoon, then increasing back to advisory levels once
again late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as the next system
moves across the waters. Winds will diminish some late in the
week, but exercise caution criteria level winds will still be
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

High pressure will dominate today with cool dry air across the region
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The next system will begin to
develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight with moisture
spreading back north across the area leading to increased rain
chances tonight into Wednesday. Given the rather wet pattern there
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  44  59  45 /   0  60  80  90
FMY  64  52  64  52 /  10  50  60  80
GIF  57  46  59  47 /   0  70  90  90
SRQ  59  45  60  47 /   0  70  80  90
BKV  54  38  57  40 /   0  40  80  90
SPG  55  47  57  47 /   0  60  80  90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Pinellas-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Levy-
     Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Close