Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
755 FGUS74 KFWD 191631 ESFFWD Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1131 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. Example: The South Fork of the Sabine River near Quinlan has a flood stage of 15 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Quinlan forecast point will rise above 9.1 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 09/18/2024 - 12/17/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Fork Sabine River Quinlan 15.0 4.5 5.3 6.4 7.5 9.1 11.0 16.0 16.7 17.4 Cowleech Fork Sabine River Greenville 14.0 5.5 5.7 8.3 11.3 15.6 16.8 17.3 17.4 17.6 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Tawakoni 436.1 436.1 436.1 436.1 436.1 436.1 437.4 438.1 438.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.noaa.gov/wfo/FWD Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$