Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
094 FGUS74 KHGX 201649 ESFHGX 210448- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 1149 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for Harris County Watersheds in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for Harris County Watersheds in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: Greens Bayou at U.S.Hwy 59 in Houston has a flood stage of 55 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the U.S. Hwy 59 forecast point will rise above 49.5 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 09/18/2024 - 12/17/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------------------------------------------------------- Spring Creek Tomball 155.0 140.3 140.9 143.3 145.4 146.6 147.6 147.8 148.2 150.6 Cypress Creek Katy-Hockley 157.3 146.2 146.5 148.9 150.5 151.4 153.6 154.9 156.3 157.1 Grant Road 122.0 104.1 105.1 106.8 107.8 108.8 110.8 117.0 117.6 120.2 Greens Bayou Knobcrest St 84.8 70.2 70.9 71.3 72.4 73.1 73.9 75.1 76.3 77.2 U.S. Hwy 59 55.0 44.1 45.0 46.2 47.8 49.5 51.1 51.8 53.9 55.2 Ley Road 30.0 7.8 8.9 10.1 12.5 15.9 18.5 20.1 25.0 29.0 White Oak Bayou Heights Blvd 32.0 15.3 16.3 18.3 19.7 21.5 22.5 25.6 31.1 32.3 Brays Bayou Main Street 41.0 24.4 26.3 27.7 28.0 29.8 30.6 31.4 37.2 39.3 Buffalo Bayou West Belt 62.2 38.9 39.5 40.2 40.9 41.4 42.5 43.6 44.5 45.4 Piney Point 52.0 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.6 35.9 36.3 37.9 40.0 41.0 Shepherd Dr 28.0 6.6 7.1 8.1 10.2 10.6 11.3 13.1 18.7 21.0 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$