Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
080 FGUS73 KLSX 261656 ESFLSX Probabalistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major LOCATION Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ---- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- ...Missouri River Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 19 25 14 24 <5 20 Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 26 37 <5 5 <5 <5 Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 25 34 9 22 <5 6 Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 22 28 <5 6 <5 <5 St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 23 30 7 16 <5 <5 ...Mississippi River Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 <5 9 <5 7 <5 <5 Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 <5 8 <5 7 <5 <5 Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 <5 12 <5 8 <5 <5 Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 9 19 <5 7 <5 <5 Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 9 19 <5 6 <5 <5 Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 <5 15 <5 8 <5 <5 Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 6 15 <5 5 <5 <5 Alton 21.0 24.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 14 20 <5 8 <5 <5 St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 7 18 5 10 <5 <5 Herculaneum 26.0 32.0 37.0 13 19 6 11 <5 5 Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 15 22 7 15 <5 6 ...North Fabius River Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 22 30 <5 <5 <5 <5 ...Middle Fabius River Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 21 28 <5 8 <5 <5 ...South Fabius River Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 21 28 <5 15 <5 <5 ...North River Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 8 15 <5 7 <5 <5 ...Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 19 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 ...Salt River New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ...Cuivre River Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 30 21 8 8 <5 <5 Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 8 13 6 10 <5 <5 ...Dardenne Creek St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 38 25 24 16 10 7 ...Meramec River Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 32 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 47 24 8 7 <5 <5 Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 30 15 6 6 <5 <5 Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 28 17 10 8 6 7 Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 26 13 16 13 9 11 Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 24 16 8 11 <5 <5 Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 23 24 6 6 <5 <5 ...Bourbeuse River Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 30 20 8 6 <5 <5 ...Big River Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 27 21 16 12 <5 <5 ...Moreau River Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 57 40 34 25 15 11 ...Maries River Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 22 19 12 9 <5 <5 ...Gasconade River Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 29 19 17 13 <5 <5 ...Hinkson Creek Columbia 15.0 18.0 20.0 23 19 13 11 5 5 ...Osage River St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mari-Osa Campground 19.0 22.0 25.0 12 26 7 12 <5 5 ...La Moine River Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 10 17 8 15 <5 <5 ...Kaskaskia River Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 45 43 20 18 12 13 Carlyle 16.5 23.0 27.0 41 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 New Athens 79.0 82.0 85.0 28 21 19 11 7 8 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ...Missouri River Jefferson City 7.3 8.0 9.3 14.1 17.9 26.0 29.1 Chamois 4.1 4.9 7.3 10.8 17.9 22.3 25.7 Hermann 7.7 7.8 10.7 14.0 20.9 25.1 30.0 Washington 5.3 5.5 8.2 10.9 17.6 21.6 25.3 St. Charles 12.8 13.2 15.6 18.2 23.9 27.3 31.1 ...Mississippi River Canton 3.8 3.8 4.6 6.2 8.7 10.5 13.3 LaGrange 4.7 4.7 5.5 7.1 9.6 11.4 14.2 Quincy 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 14.2 16.3 Lock & Dam 21 4.4 4.4 5.3 6.9 9.4 12.2 15.2 Hannibal 10.0 10.0 10.4 11.2 12.2 14.3 15.9 Saverton 5.2 5.2 6.2 7.6 9.3 12.7 15.3 Louisiana 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 13.5 15.6 Clarksville 14.8 14.9 16.1 17.7 19.7 23.2 25.7 Winfield 14.6 14.7 15.9 17.5 19.6 23.5 25.9 Grafton 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.6 21.6 Alton 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 Mel Price LD 5.5 5.8 6.5 9.3 15.4 22.2 27.3 St. Louis 3.5 4.2 6.8 10.6 20.5 29.5 35.9 Herculaneum 1.1 1.9 4.7 8.7 18.6 27.3 33.7 Chester 7.6 9.2 10.7 17.3 21.9 33.0 37.8 ...North Fabius River Ewing 3.5 3.7 5.0 6.5 10.3 12.8 15.7 ...Middle Fabius River Ewing 3.0 3.1 3.9 5.9 10.5 13.6 15.3 ...South Fabius River Taylor 2.4 2.5 3.6 5.1 8.2 12.6 13.8 ...North River Palmyra 3.9 4.0 4.8 5.5 8.6 12.6 14.1 ...Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 4.9 5.9 8.1 10.8 16.2 18.7 19.3 ...Salt River New London 2.3 2.4 3.0 4.2 8.5 9.6 11.4 ...Cuivre River Troy 7.1 9.0 11.0 15.0 22.0 24.4 27.3 Old Monroe 10.5 10.7 12.4 14.9 17.7 22.5 28.0 ...Dardenne Creek St. Peters 9.0 10.0 12.8 16.0 19.9 23.0 24.0 ...Meramec River Steelville 2.4 2.9 5.2 8.6 14.0 16.6 18.8 Sullivan 4.5 4.7 7.1 10.2 15.5 19.6 24.3 Pacific 0.3 2.1 5.2 9.9 15.8 20.6 24.6 Eureka 4.4 6.1 8.5 12.1 19.6 25.9 34.0 Valley Park 0.5 2.1 5.5 9.2 18.5 24.9 30.5 Fenton 5.0 6.5 9.7 13.6 22.7 27.0 30.2 Arnold 8.7 9.5 11.6 16.7 22.8 30.5 35.8 ...Bourbeuse River Union 4.6 5.2 7.6 11.0 15.6 21.6 23.8 ...Big River Byrnesville 4.8 4.8 7.4 11.6 17.1 22.0 25.6 ...Moreau River Jefferson City 5.1 5.1 8.2 20.1 26.9 33.8 36.0 ...Hinkson Creek Columbia 4.5 5.2 6.7 11.0 14.0 19.0 20.0 ...Maries River Westphalia 2.6 2.6 3.3 7.0 9.4 15.6 17.3 ...Gasconade River Rich Fountain 10.8 10.8 10.8 16.6 22.1 26.4 28.1 ...Osage River St. Thomas 2.8 3.0 5.9 9.2 11.8 13.2 15.4 Mari-Osa Campground 3.8 4.2 6.4 10.2 16.5 19.1 23.4 ...La Moine River Ripley 5.3 6.9 8.8 11.4 17.0 22.3 25.1 ...Kaskaskia River Vandalia 10.0 10.3 12.7 16.8 23.1 26.5 27.0 Carlyle 13.8 13.8 14.2 15.7 19.4 21.2 21.9 New Athens 70.2 70.5 71.4 74.7 79.5 83.7 86.3 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ...Missouri River Jefferson City 4.4 3.9 1.7 0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 Chamois 1.9 1.0 -0.3 -1.9 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 Hermann 4.9 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 Washington 2.8 2.5 1.1 -0.4 -1.6 -2.1 -2.3 St. Charles 10.3 10.0 8.3 6.8 5.6 5.1 4.9 ...Mississippi River Canton 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 LaGrange 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 Quincy 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 Lock & Dam 21 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 Hannibal 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 Saverton 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 Louisiana 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 Clarksville 14.4 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.3 Winfield 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.2 Grafton 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 Alton 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.5 16.0 14.6 Mel Price LD 4.6 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.4 St. Louis 1.7 1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -3.4 -3.8 Herculaneum -0.9 -1.5 -3.3 -4.5 -5.4 -6.9 -7.3 Chester 5.6 5.1 3.2 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 ...North Fabius River Ewing 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 ...Middle Fabius River Ewing 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 ...South Fabius River Taylor 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 ...North River Palmyra 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 ...Mid Fork Salt River Holliday 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 ...Salt River New London 4.9 4.6 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 ...Cuivre River Troy 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 Old Monroe 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 ...Dardenne Creek St. Peters 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 ...Meramec River Steelville 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Sullivan 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 Pacific -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 Eureka 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 Valley Park -1.9 -2.5 -3.0 -3.3 -3.6 -3.9 -3.9 Fenton 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 Arnold 7.4 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 ...Bourbeuse River Union 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 ...Big River Byrnesville 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 ...Moreau River Jefferson City 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 ...Hinkson Creek Columbia 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 ...Maries River Westphalia 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 ...Gasconade River Rich Fountain 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 ...Osage River St. Thomas 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 ...La Moine River Ripley 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 ...Kaskaskia River Vandalia 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 Carlyle 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 New Athens 68.6 68.6 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 68.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued the last week of October. Fuchs