Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
484 FGUS74 KLUB 191607 ESFLUB Hydrologic Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1107 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ..Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook For The Brazos River Basin In West Central Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Lubbock Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in West Central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Double Mountain Fork Of The Brazos River near Aspermont 10S has a Flood Stage of 21.0 Feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Aspermont Forecast Point will rise above 6.7 feet during the next 90 days. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID [ 09/18/2024 - 12/18/2024 ] LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SALT FORK OF THE BRAZOS RIVER ASPERMONT 13N 12.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.3 DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK BRAZOS RIVER Justiceburg 19.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.9 9.1 13.5 Aspermont 10S 21.0 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.7 7.0 8.4 9.3 12.0 Lake Alan Henry 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2219.5 2219.6 2219.7 2219.7 2219.8 2219.9 2220.2 2220.8 2223.9 This Long Range Probabilistic Outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lub Long-Range Probabilistic Outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$