Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221908 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 305 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through central NC and exit exit to our east this evening. High pressure will build into the region on Saturday, before moving off the coast on Monday. Another cold front will approach the area late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 248 PM Friday... The cold front continues to show up nicely on vis satellite (thin line of enhanced clouds) and sfc obs (abrupt wind shift and lowering dwpts), and based on these obs, is currently located from just north of KIXA to just north of KRDU to KRUQ. Behind this front the winds shift to the NW along with a dwpt decreases of 5-10+ degrees. Ahead of this front, showers and tstms have broken out across eastern NC, where latest mesoanalysis shows the center of max instability and PWAT. Of particular concern for us this afternoon and evening is how far west, if at all, new pre-frontal convective development may form. While nearly all of the CAMs keep the precip confined to areas well east of I-95 through the duration of fropa this evening, we are concerned that the instability gradient currently extends west to at least the I-95 corridor and as far west as the Triangle. For now, will lean toward a consensus of the CAMs which keeps slight chance PoPs across our coastal plain counties this evening, but will closely monitor for any stray cells that develop farther west than what these models suggest. Once the front exits our CWA later this evening, look for dry/fair weather the rest of the overnight period, with lows from the upper 40s NW to lower 50s SE, thanks to post-frontal CAA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 248 PM Friday... High pressure that is currently centered over the TN Valley will build eastward over our region through Saturday, providing a drier airmass, fair weather and comfortable temps. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s (coolest NW and warmest SE) and lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 40s across all of central NC. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 305 PM Friday... It is this forecaster`s fourth consecutive shift on the long term desk, and the model agreement today for the extended forecast is the highest it`s been all week. High pressure will have moved offshore by Sunday morning, and southerly flow will allow temperatures to warm several degrees compared to Saturday. Low pressure will be developing in the central Plains and will move northeast towards Chicago by Monday morning. The ECMWF and GFS are in general agreement that the low will move north of our area and that a cold front will sweep through Monday night. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures should rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s, the highest temperatures of the seven day forecast. Although a shower could linger into Tuesday, most of the day should be dry, and high pressure will make a brief appearance Tuesday night into Wednesday. The next low pressure system will develop across the central US on Wednesday, and models are showing rain with this system taking a little longer to reach central North Carolina, with the 12Z ECMWF dramatically slowing from its 00Z run. Have gone ahead and removed pops from Wednesday afternoon, but kept the chance of rain in the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday. Decided to discount how slow the 12Z ECMWF is with the surface low considering how much of an outlier it is from the 00Z ECMWF/GFS combination, assuming that the cold front should push offshore by Thursday evening, and behind the front northwest flow should allow for downsloping conditions, helping to keep skies clear and moderate temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 213 PM Friday... Through 18Z Saturday: A cold front is currently crossing central NC and is located approx from KHNZ southwest to KRUQ. Winds ahead of the front are sw 10kt with gust up to 18kt, and NW 7-12kt behind the front. A few very light brief showers are located right along the front, but most of the pre-frontal activity is located east of I-95. In fact, flt conditions are VFR across all of central NC. As the front continues to move east, look for rain chances to end behind it, with mostly VFR cigs in its wake through the rest of the TAF forecast period. After 18Z Saturday: High pressure will build into the region providing VFR conditions this weekend into Monday. The next weather system will approach late Monday into Tuesday with a chance of sub- VFR flight conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...np

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