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000
FXUS65 KREV 032113
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
113 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry weather and above average temperatures will prevail for the
first half of the week. A series of low pressure systems will
produce periods of showers and gusty winds for Wednesday and
Thursday. A return to quiet weather is expected for Friday and over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After a brief period of unsettled weather, the week will start off
on a drier and warmer note as amplifying high pressure aloft
overspreads the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures will
steadily warm through Tuesday when daytime highs become 8-12
degrees above seasonal averages. Light winds and large scale
subsidence may allow for urban haze in the mornings and freezing
fog in the colder Sierra valleys.

The synoptic regime remains progressive this week as a broad
Pacific trough and embedded shortwaves propagate through the region
during the second half of the week. The first trough arrives on
Wednesday, yielding occasional showers during the afternoon and
evening. Chances of showers increase to 70-90% in the Sierra from
the Tahoe Basin northward into Lassen and N Washoe County per latest
blended guidance. Meanwhile, chances for rain showers Wednesday
afternoon for the Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden area will be 30-
50% with most locales in the Basin & Range having 10-30% chance of
showers. As showers begin to wind down Thursday morning, a second
shortwave will reinvigorate shower activity a bit for Thursday
afternoon and evening. Probabilities for precip will be fairly
similar spatially and temporally for this second bout, though snow
levels will be much lower. This will allow for some light snowfall
between 5000-5500` on Thursday.

When all is said and done, rain and snow totals will be on the
lighter side with these trough passages as the Tahoe Basin receives
a couple inches of snow with up to 6" along the Sierra crest.
Meanwhile, rain totals for lower western Nevada valleys will vary
from a few hundredths to 0.2" of an inch. Another impact to keep in
mind will be breezy valley winds and strong winds along Sierra
ridges Wednesday afternoon. Valleys gusts will reach 30-40 mph at
times while Sierra ridgetops gust to 70+ mph. Wind prone areas
along US-395 and US-95 near Walker Lake may see higher gusts up
to 50 mph at times. Winds will taper off for Thursday, but ridge
winds will remain somewhat elevated until the weekend.

A return to quiet weather with slow warming will accompany
strengthening high pressure aloft next weekend. There appears to be
some potential for active weather around the middle of the month,
but there is still too much uncertainty among ensembles to instill
much confidence in the long term forecast.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will largely prevail for the rest of the day, along
with abundant mid to upper cloud coverage. High pressure aloft will
decrease cloud cover for Monday, as well as maintain widespread VFR
conditions and light winds. The sole concern will be the potential
for FZFG in the Martis Valleys/KTRK Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected Wednesday,
characterized by reduced CIGS/VIS from showers, gusty winds, and
mountain wave turbulence.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$