251
FXUS65 KREV 270830
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
130 AM PDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong southwest wind gusts expected today, with blowing dust
  potential for the Basin and Range.

* Showers will fill in along the Sierra crest this morning, and will
  remain through late Friday night.

* Sunday brings back rounds of showers, winds and cooler
  temperatures that will last through the first week of April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Periods of gusty winds overnight is the precursor to a blustery day
ahead today. Strong southwest gusts of up to 70-80 mph may mix down
the the leeside valleys. This will bring travel concerns in the form
of blowing dust across the Basin and Range as well as difficulties
for high-profile vehicles traveling N-S oriented roads such as US-95
and I-580/US-395. Aviators will also find turbulent skies, as
boaters will want to stay onshore to avoid choppy lakes. Sierra
showers will largely be shadowed to the western side of the crest,
although northern Sierra passes have a 20-30% chance to see 4 inches
of new snowfall. Spillover into western Nevada will be limited,
instead we will get to deal with the aforementioned winds.

A break in the series of storms arrives for Saturday, so a good
travel day if you`re looking for that dry stretch of weather to head
over passes. This break is short-lived as Sunday signals the
next incoming system.

The atmospheric river system that is waiting over the Pacific along
just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands will take aim at the
central California coast for Sunday, bringing winds as early as
Sunday morning. Sunday and Monday will both be breezy, with Monday
the gustier of the two. Sierra showers will arrive Sunday and then
try to spillover into western Nevada. The target day with the best
opportunity for spillover is Tuesday, when the GFS Ensemble depicts
an 80-90% chance for the western slopes of the Sierra to see an
integrated water vapor content of 250 kg/(ms). This ample source
of moisture, coupled with a latitude between 35N and 40N, amount
to a favorable setup for precipitation to make it over the Sierra
Nevada range. As for the variability in the solutions to determine
whether this system will present with a colder airmass versus a
warmer scenario, confidence is still limited. The presence of
moisture and the latitude of the system suggest the system may
have a warmer character, which could create issues with rains on
an existing snowpack in some areas. Therefore, our attention will
be trained to the evolution of the temperature profile of the
system, which will determine the precipitation type we experience
here on the surface.

HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Peak ridgetop gusts this afternoon will be SW 70-80 kts along
  the Sierra crest, with LLWS and turbulence present across all
  terminals. As showers build in over the Sierra, KTRK, KTVL and
  KMMH will see VIS/CIG lowering along with some terrain
  obscurations.

* By Friday, winds are expected to decrease but mountain wave
  conditions are likely to continue with SW wind gusts at FL100
  around 40-50 kt, and SW-W surface gusts 25-30 kt. MJD/HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-003-005.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ070>072.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ073.

&&

$$