Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 151017
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
317 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and warm conditions will prevail today, followed by increased
winds Wednesday and a cooling trend Thursday into next weekend as
waves of low pressure move across the Pacific Northwest. There are
chances for light showers mainly north of I-80 Wednesday night
and Thursday, and also for Saturday when windy conditions are also
likely. Dry and warmer conditions return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The main change in the short term forecast was extending shower
chances a bit farther south across eastern CA early Thursday to
include Alpine County and more of the Tahoe Basin.

Dry and warm conditions prevail again today with highs well into
the 70s for lower elevations, then the weather pattern becomes a
bit more active as a weak upper trough and surface cold front
approach the CA coast Wednesday and move across Nevada early
Thursday. This system will bring an increase in winds for higher
elevations starting tonight, then reach lower valleys Wednesday
afternoon-evening. Peak gusts are projected near 30-35 mph north
of US-50 and around 25 mph south of US-50, while Sierra ridge
gusts of 50+ mph are likely to persist through Wednesday night.
Locally gusty winds could also continue in foothill areas and the
Tahoe Basin through Wednesday night along and ahead of the cold
front.

The latest guidance shows a bit more moisture being drawn into
this system with showers developing in northeast CA and far northwest
NV late Wednesday night. Then by early Thursday morning, a short
period of forcing along the cold front could be sufficient to
bring light amounts of rain and snow farther south across Tahoe
and into Alpine County. We aren`t anticipating precip rates to be
intense enough to bring snow levels below the 6500-7000 foot
elevation or produce significant travel impacts over the main
passes. A few sprinkles also can`t be ruled out around Reno-Carson
City Thursday morning and into parts of west-central NV into the
afternoon, but the forcing along the front loses its punch so
these areas are unlikely to receive meaningful rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to drop by about 10-15 degrees on
Thursday, with highs mainly in the lower-mid 60s for lower
elevations and 50s near the Sierra. A moderate west to northwest
breeze will also make the cooling feel more noticeable.

As for smoke associated with the Caples Fire, it has mostly risen
high enough before being carried across the Sierra crest to
produce hazy conditions but less surface-based smoke. Air quality
sensors show continued improvement over Tahoe and Alpine County
at this time. We could see haze extend farther east today into
parts of Lyon and Churchill County as southwest ridge winds increase,
but impacts associated with smoke near the surface are less likely
unless there`s a significant increase in fire activity/intensity
during the day. MJD

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Another upper disturbance is still expected for Saturday. However,
the main forcing with the wave is projected to remain over far
northern CA and NV so IF any northeast CA showers eke down into
the Tahoe area, or western NV north of about I-80, they should
remain quite light. With the showers expected to remain light and
the main cold air push remaining well north of the area, no travel
impacts are expected on roads in northeast CA and the northern
Sierra on Saturday, with the possible exception being Cedar Pass
in eastern Modoc County.

While precipitation is not expected to be an issue for the region,
west to northwest winds will become breezy Saturday afternoon and
evening. Widespread gusts 25-35 mph are likely, with wind-prone
areas (including portions of Hwy 395/I-580 and Hwy 95 near Walker
Lake) possibly seeing gusts 40-50 mph. This could be of concern for
boaters, large-profile vehicles, and aviation (turbulence).

Sunday and Monday, the flow turns to lighter north and east as a
surface high builds into the area. With the bulk of cold advection
remaining north and east of the region, temperatures are currently
expected to rebound early next week with highs in the 60s and 70s.
-Snyder

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with generally light winds (under 10 kts) through Wednesday
morning for terminals in northeast CA and western NV, with winds
aloft and over ridges increasing late tonight as an upper ridge
begins moving off to the east. As far as visibility around South
Lake Tahoe, the nearby Sierra, and perhaps out into far western
NV, some haze and potential limits to slantwise visibility are
possible due to the Caples Fire.

Winds will increase by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a trough that
will move over the Sierra Thursday morning. Gusts 20-25 kts can be
expected for terminals, mainly north of Hwy 50. Winds near and
above ridge level increase to between 40-55 kts Wednesday night as
the upper trough nears. This is likely to bring a substantial
increase in turbulence downwind of the Sierra from late Wednesday
into Thursday.

The trough will bring a few rain and high elevation showers from
Hwy 50 north in NE California, perhaps extending out into extreme
western and northwestern NV. -Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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