Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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793
FXUS65 KREV 140901
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds will bring areas of critical fire weather conditions
this afternoon, with another round of stronger winds late Sunday
into Monday. Temperatures will not be as hot today, with further
cooling through the weekend and bottoming out well below average
on Monday. Other than a chance of showers well north of I-80 on
Monday, dry conditions will prevail through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front will bring areas of
  critical fire weather conditions to much of western NV today.

* Temperatures will start to trend downward today, with further
  cooling to near mid-June averages over the weekend.

* For Monday. another cold front will bring stronger winds,
  increased fire weather concerns, and further cooling with highs
  10-15 degrees below average.

Thunderstorm activity on Thursday was mainly over northern Mono
and southern Douglas counties with rain gauge reports of 0.10-0.50
inch. Outflows produced more cells with lesser rain amounts
across Lyon and Mineral counties, but a few stronger gusts of
50-60 mph reported around Hawthorne-Walker Lake-Schurz.

For today, above average temperatures will continue but it will be
the "coolest" of the most recent 10 days as highs ease back to the
lower-mid 90s for western NV valleys, and upper 70s-lower 80s for
Sierra communities. The main impacts today will be due to gusty
winds producing choppy lake waters and increased fire weather
concerns--see the Fire Weather section below for more details.

This weekend will finally see a return to typical mid-June high
temperatures in the mid 80s for western NV/lower-mid 70s near the
Sierra (in case we may have forgotten!). Weak troughing across
CA-NV will keep breezy W-NW winds each afternoon, with speeds down
a bit on Saturday but possibly increasing again by late Sunday.

For Monday, a secondary shortwave drops farther south into northern
CA/NV, with some guidance scenarios showing upper level jet winds
of 100+ kt. This could lead to another day of stronger wind
gusts--depending on how far south this trough digs in and also
on the timing. The cold front associated with this trough may push
through more quickly on Sunday night/early AM Monday, with
leftover gradient breezes during the day Monday. We`ll see our
coolest day of the week on Monday, with highs only in the lower
70s for western NV and 60s for eastern CA and northwest NV.
Increased cloud cover and shower chances well north of I-80 to
near the OR border could even keep temperatures below 60 in these
areas through Monday.

For the rest of next week, temperatures look to rebound to near
average by midweek with weak troughing near the west coast, then
warming up (90+ degrees for western NV valleys) by the end of
next week as a high pressure ridge attempts to rebuild over the
southwest US/Four Corners area. Dry conditions are likely to
prevail with modest zephyr breezes each afternoon. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

A dry, stable southwest upper flow will ensure VFR conditions
through the 24 hour forecast period. Look for enhanced afternoon
westerly breezes from a cold front passing over the Sierra into
western NV with gusts to 25-35 kts for main terminals. Winds will
diminish later this evening between 04-06Z, then become light
overnight into Saturday morning. More typical afternoon breezes
return Saturday afternoon with gusts 20-25 kts. With the exception
for another round of enhanced breezes Monday with passage of a
dry cold front, expect little change from mostly dry conditions,
more typical afternoon breezes, and increasing temperatures that
bring afternoon density altitude concerns. -Amanda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Dry and windy conditions will bring a multi-hour period of
  critical fire weather conditions to the Sierra Front and Basin &
  Range this afternoon as the trailing edge of a dry cold front
  passes through the region. Sustained west-southwest winds 15-20
  mph with gusts to 25-35 mph, coupled with daytime relative
  humidities dropping to 10-15%, will create a 3-6 hour window of
  Red Flag conditions across the aforementioned areas, where finer
  fuel moistures have reached critical thresholds. Therefore, Red
  Flag Warnings remain in effect for 2-10 PM today.

* Winds will remain breezy into the weekend, yielding locally
  elevated fire weather conditions both Saturday and Sunday as
  well. There is also increasing forecast confidence that another
  dry cold frontal passage on Monday could bring another round of
  widespread critical conditions to the region.

* It is advised to avoid any activities that could cause a spark!
  Even during periods of sub-critical fire weather conditions,
  multiple 100+ acre fires have flared up in the Truckee Meadows
  over the past few days. Therefore, a heightened concern for a
  fire start should be maintained. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ420.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ001>004.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT
     this evening CAZ071-072.

&&

$$