National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXAK67 PAJK 232305
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Wednesday night / A low west of Dixon
Entrance is weakening and moving into the British Columbia
coastline. Bands of the showers are rotating about the feature and
and impacting the southern half of the panhandle, with a bit of
sprinkles for the north central, specifically the Juneau area. The
little light rains will be weakening through Wednesday night. A
weak surface ridge over the eastern gulf and into panhandle.

A small pool instability aloft associated with the low may lead
to to enhanced showers, however do not think it is strong enough
lift the convection threat to a thunderstorm level it is possible
but but have not seen any today which should have triggered on the
Haida Gwaii coast so think that threat on the very low level.


.LONG TERM...Thursday a ridge will be building across the
interior of Alaska, with zonal flow over the northern Pacific.
These features will help block active weather from moving into the
region, bringing dry conditions and light winds to the end of the
week. Upstream of the ridge in the Bering Sea, a closed low will
dig into the Gulf of Alaska early Friday morning, making a beeline
for Haida Gwaii. As this feature ejects towards the archipelago,
surface pressure will fall in the Gulf Saturday, with ensembles
indicating a 998mb low and southeasterly 22-28 knot winds into the
central Gulf and coastal waters. While there is uncertainty in
the exact location and orientation of this feature, we will likely
see elevated east winds out of Cross Sound and other east-to-west
orientated passageways into Sunday, along with 25-30 knot
southerly winds in Dixon Entrance and Hecate Strait, perhaps as
far north as southern Clarence Strait.

Regarding precipitation, a desiccant pattern continues for the
future as our systems undergo cyclogenesis in dry regions and fail
to steer ample tropical moisture into the Panhandle. Current IVT
guidance suggests Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon will
see some rainfall for the central and southern region, but amounts
and rates fall below climate normal. One item to note is the
central and southern Panhandle is now marked under a D0 Drought
Intensity (meaning abnormally dry). Temperatures continue to trend
warmer across the Panhandle, with the south reaching into the
upper 50s by Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions continue for the panhandle.
Cloud cover has returned due to a weakening low approaching Haida
Gwaii which is bringing showers and occasionally lower ceilings
to the southern half of the panhandle. This will continue Tuesday
night with showers diminishing through the day Wednesday. With
cloud coverage, sea breezes are likely to be less noticeable with
no significant wind concerns during the TAF period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau