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000
FXUS65 KBOI 170928
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
328 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...At 3 AM MDT a surface
cold front and mid-level cloud shield were moving southeastward
through southern Idaho, with radar showing isolated snow showers
in the Boise Mountains. West-central Idaho and most of eastern
Oregon have already cleared but southern Malheur County was
still cloudy. The front will move to the Nevada border later
today and stall there. Behind (i.e., north of) the front west/
northwest winds will increase in open areas throughout our CWA,
strongest in the Upper Treasure and western Magic where
afternoon gusts to 35 mph are expected. Clearing, drying,
calming, and colder tonight with sub-freezing low temps in all
areas Thursday morning. Mostly sunny and 5 degrees warmer later
Thursday with less wind than today. Mostly clear and cold again
Thursday night, but the stalled cold front near the Nevada border
will begin to shift northward again as a warm front, with clouds
increasing along the southern CWA border Friday. Friday should
also be 5 degrees warmer than Thursday. Mostly clear north and
mostly cloudy and warmer south Friday night.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Warmer, dry conditions
are anticipated Saturday as a weak ridge builds over the area.
Models have become more aligned in bringing a quick-moving,
shortwave trough through the Pacific Northwest late Saturday
and Sunday. While this trough will increase cloud cover across
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, only a 15-25% chance of
precipitation is expected for w-central Idaho while the rest of
the area remains dry. Snow levels will stay fairly high at
6500-8000 ft MSL. Temperatures are forecast to be around 10
degrees above normal Saturday, but should lower several degrees
Sunday as cooler and breezy northwest flow establishes behind
the trough. Mostly dry, weak ridging will return Monday and
Tuesday and allow temperatures to rebound to 10-15 degrees above
normal. Late Tuesday and Wednesday ensemble members begin to
diverge significantly, but hint at the return of unsettled
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Areas of mountain obscuration. Isolated
MVFR snow showers over west-central ID mountains this afternoon.
Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts to 20-25 kt. Except for
KMUO/KJER/KTWF, winds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt
late morning through sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW
20-40 kt, becoming N-NW 15-25 kt around 17/15Z.

KBOI...VFR. Broken 7000-1000 ft AGL clouds will become scattered
this afternoon, then mostly clear overnight. NW winds 5-15 kt.
Gusts 20-25 kt late morning through sunset.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH