Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 232037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
237 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Area of mainly showers expected to progress over the Panhandle/far
se Wy into this evening as a cold front moves across the area.
Still a chance for a few weak storms but instabilities rather low
with cloud cover. Other showers will occur around the mtns in
association with an upper shortwave. This wave will pass across
the area this evening with clearing conditions behind it.

Mainly dry and mild on Saturday though a few showers may pop up
around the mtns by late in the afternoon with the approach of
another weak impulse. These showers may persist through the
evening as well as spread out over the plains aided by a surface
trough. Cool front will then sag across the CWA Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Attention this period continues to be on the upper trough that
will initially be over the western CONUS Sunday, moving slowly
east. Models coming into better agreement in splitting the energy
of this system, dropping a large part of it southward Monday and
cutting off an upper low by Tuesday. Should still see a period of
rain and snow over much of the CWA late Sunday through Monday but
not as much as earlier depicted. Surface trough over eastern Wy
late Sunday could help to focus some convection with modest
instability and decent shear possibly allowing for a few stronger
storms. Main upper trough axis then passes across late Monday but
may not be much energy with it in this area. Tuesday into Weds
should be dry and a bit cool then a system drops southeast across
the area late Weds into Thursday bringing some rain and snow
showers. Dry weather returns for Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Main challenge for this TAF cycle is trying to pinpoint location
and timing of afternoon/early evening convection. The radar at
noon shows weak shower activity lifting northeast across the
western Nebraska Panhandle. This trend will continue through the
afternoon hours, with likely some additional strengthening. Given
timing uncertainties left most TAF sites in VCTS and will refine
once radar trends are noted. This activity will dissipate this
evening, with clearing skies anticipated overnight.


Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend into
early next week. Some showers and maybe a couple storms mainly
over the Panhandle into this evening. Dry for the most part
Saturday into Sunday then cooler and wetter conditions returning
into early next week.




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